diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 6536b52c..338f6c1f 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ "med_stake": 97, "avg_entry": 0.33, "train_n": 13, - "fwd_win": 60.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.399, - "fwd_n": 10 + "fwd_win": 54.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.272, + "fwd_n": 11 }, { "wallet": "0xf5fe759cece500f58a431ef8dacea321f6e3e23d", @@ -46,14 +46,14 @@ "name": "0x72e15978", "train_win": 99.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.968, - "train_z": 17.6, + "train_z": 17.57, "z_all": 29.09, - "med_stake": 464, + "med_stake": 471, "avg_entry": 0.52, - "train_n": 325, - "fwd_win": 99.0, + "train_n": 324, + "fwd_win": 99.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 1.069, - "fwd_n": 199 + "fwd_n": 223 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -115,15 +115,15 @@ "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", "name": "0xfc81760d", "train_win": 88.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.61, - "train_z": 7.86, + "train_conv_roi": 0.615, + "train_z": 7.92, "z_all": 7.89, "med_stake": 80, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 183, - "fwd_win": 92.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.766, - "fwd_n": 63 + "fwd_win": 92.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.755, + "fwd_n": 64 }, { "wallet": "0x04be12cdb4f3f0e43bb78c6145f442ed53411aec", @@ -247,9 +247,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 81, - "fwd_win": 76.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, - "fwd_n": 200 + "fwd_win": 76.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.102, + "fwd_n": 206 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -289,9 +289,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 63.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.138, - "fwd_n": 202 + "fwd_win": 63.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, + "fwd_n": 216 }, { "wallet": "0xbf1040ad7009ed6532f885c2043630d1cedf15ce", @@ -310,12 +310,12 @@ { "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", - "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.375, - "train_z": 7.93, + "train_win": 68.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.38, + "train_z": 8.0, "z_all": 14.51, "med_stake": 841, - "avg_entry": 0.53, + "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, "fwd_win": 57.4, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, @@ -345,9 +345,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 70.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.228, - "fwd_n": 220 + "fwd_win": 70.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.212, + "fwd_n": 232 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -359,9 +359,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 59.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, - "fwd_n": 216 + "fwd_win": 60.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.12, + "fwd_n": 226 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -383,13 +383,13 @@ "train_win": 83.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.31, "train_z": 4.2, - "z_all": 3.98, + "z_all": 4.21, "med_stake": 59, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 85, - "fwd_win": 75.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, - "fwd_n": 264 + "fwd_win": 74.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.095, + "fwd_n": 265 }, { "wallet": "0xc904211fd4412d5caa0b51f923304bf5e1821e9a", @@ -415,9 +415,9 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 62.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 78 + "fwd_win": 61.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, + "fwd_n": 90 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -425,13 +425,13 @@ "train_win": 71.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.304, "train_z": 5.76, - "z_all": 5.04, + "z_all": 5.05, "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 55.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.327, - "fwd_n": 276 + "fwd_win": 55.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.326, + "fwd_n": 279 }, { "wallet": "0x0bd753cbeb82b4dc735fdd84955f99fbaf258553", @@ -443,9 +443,9 @@ "med_stake": 117, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 71, - "fwd_win": 58.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.013, - "fwd_n": 31 + "fwd_win": 62.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, + "fwd_n": 40 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -475,6 +475,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xfa0be712f974eb9933427c2202d1ae2561571001", + "name": "0xfa0be712", + "train_win": 72.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.255, + "train_z": 5.23, + "z_all": 9.96, + "med_stake": 362, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 314, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0xa5427f80816486ad3e4c80aad9711f87b8b5172c", "name": "0xa5427f80", @@ -506,13 +520,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.2, + "train_win": 81.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.23, - "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 3.95, - "med_stake": 231, + "train_z": 3.73, + "z_all": 4.13, + "med_stake": 221, "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 112, + "train_n": 111, "fwd_win": 73.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, "fwd_n": 52 @@ -527,9 +541,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 66.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.364, - "fwd_n": 178 + "fwd_win": 66.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.351, + "fwd_n": 184 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -569,9 +583,9 @@ "med_stake": 220, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 74.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.145, - "fwd_n": 35 + "fwd_win": 72.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.114, + "fwd_n": 36 }, { "wallet": "0xe0b311527157158117b34bb5841dcb45602c4132", @@ -605,15 +619,15 @@ "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "name": "0x41558102", "train_win": 85.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.199, - "train_z": 4.74, - "z_all": 11.89, + "train_conv_roi": 0.197, + "train_z": 4.7, + "z_all": 11.87, "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, - "train_n": 289, - "fwd_win": 87.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.135, - "fwd_n": 288 + "train_n": 288, + "fwd_win": 87.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.141, + "fwd_n": 297 }, { "wallet": "0xa2e5927b38c42d1fdd6c05d70492c3f4208fc8d1", @@ -635,13 +649,13 @@ "train_win": 75.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.193, "train_z": 3.78, - "z_all": 10.08, + "z_all": 10.07, "med_stake": 442, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 236, - "fwd_win": 74.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.02, - "fwd_n": 424 + "fwd_win": 74.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.028, + "fwd_n": 427 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -657,6 +671,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019, "fwd_n": 282 }, + { + "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", + "name": "0x93164f2f", + "train_win": 67.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.189, + "train_z": 3.32, + "z_all": 2.01, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.56, + "train_n": 197, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", "name": "0x3eff118d", @@ -683,21 +711,7 @@ "train_n": 139, "fwd_win": 73.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.24, - "fwd_n": 183 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", - "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.177, - "train_z": 2.78, - "z_all": 2.97, - "med_stake": 767, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 110, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 + "fwd_n": 191 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -709,9 +723,9 @@ "med_stake": 148, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 53, - "fwd_win": 53.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.443, - "fwd_n": 13 + "fwd_win": 50.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.34, + "fwd_n": 14 }, { "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", @@ -723,9 +737,9 @@ "med_stake": 1019, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 73.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.04, - "fwd_n": 188 + "fwd_win": 73.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.047, + "fwd_n": 192 }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", @@ -737,9 +751,9 @@ "med_stake": 200, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 210, - "fwd_win": 54.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.409, - "fwd_n": 33 + "fwd_win": 54.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.403, + "fwd_n": 68 }, { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", @@ -747,8 +761,8 @@ "train_win": 76.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.167, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 4.07, - "med_stake": 929, + "z_all": 4.03, + "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 247, "fwd_win": 70.8, @@ -761,13 +775,13 @@ "train_win": 70.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.161, "train_z": 3.97, - "z_all": 8.52, + "z_all": 8.58, "med_stake": 166, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 338, - "fwd_win": 65.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.236, - "fwd_n": 123 + "fwd_win": 64.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.222, + "fwd_n": 127 }, { "wallet": "0x2842d5201b2119d0ec14581fee3c3324bc0c9bab", @@ -783,6 +797,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", + "name": "0x7ccec296", + "train_win": 67.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.154, + "train_z": 2.59, + "z_all": 2.79, + "med_stake": 772, + "avg_entry": 0.56, + "train_n": 122, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977", "name": "0x46b2f8a8", @@ -811,34 +839,34 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.056, "fwd_n": 24 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", + "name": "0xc2d9576f", + "train_win": 67.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.143, + "train_z": 6.7, + "z_all": 2.4, + "med_stake": 188, + "avg_entry": 0.57, + "train_n": 734, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 2 + }, { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", "name": "0xed61f86b", "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.136, - "train_z": 3.03, - "z_all": 10.29, - "med_stake": 1315, + "train_conv_roi": 0.137, + "train_z": 3.04, + "z_all": 10.28, + "med_stake": 1305, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 305, "fwd_win": 85.7, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, "fwd_n": 21 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", - "name": "0xc2d9576f", - "train_win": 66.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.133, - "train_z": 6.27, - "z_all": 2.19, - "med_stake": 190, - "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 677, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 - }, { "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f", "name": "0x3ab5ad27", @@ -849,9 +877,9 @@ "med_stake": 4753, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 85, - "fwd_win": 52.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.264, - "fwd_n": 17 + "fwd_win": 42.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.404, + "fwd_n": 21 }, { "wallet": "0x030343b4567b0c0e79eeebbebf90fe46f30e1770", @@ -891,9 +919,9 @@ "med_stake": 1410, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 254, - "fwd_win": 63.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.267, - "fwd_n": 177 + "fwd_win": 63.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.287, + "fwd_n": 180 }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", @@ -905,9 +933,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 83.9, + "fwd_win": 84.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.099, - "fwd_n": 174 + "fwd_n": 176 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -985,7 +1013,7 @@ "train_win": 77.3, "train_conv_roi": 0.115, "train_z": 2.48, - "z_all": 2.96, + "z_all": 2.91, "med_stake": 6680, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 225, @@ -993,20 +1021,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036, "fwd_n": 64 }, - { - "wallet": "0x0b9353aea88d01ed1912013b435dd39947d0a6cc", - "name": "0x0b9353ae", - "train_win": 80.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.113, - "train_z": 4.15, - "z_all": 2.27, - "med_stake": 177, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 349, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", "name": "0x86c878cd", @@ -1017,9 +1031,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 71.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.103, - "fwd_n": 149 + "fwd_win": 71.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.109, + "fwd_n": 153 }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", @@ -1035,6 +1049,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -1.0, "fwd_n": 5 }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 70.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.106, + "train_z": 3.08, + "z_all": 2.12, + "med_stake": 226, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 363, + "fwd_win": 64.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, + "fwd_n": 230 + }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -1050,18 +1078,18 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 69.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.103, - "train_z": 3.04, - "z_all": 2.1, - "med_stake": 226, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 364, - "fwd_win": 64.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.128, - "fwd_n": 228 + "wallet": "0x0130afd6f3efddf1c3e16e01217b172dd9befb49", + "name": "0x0130afd6", + "train_win": 65.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.102, + "train_z": 2.53, + "z_all": 2.7, + "med_stake": 77, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 55, + "fwd_win": 45.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.321, + "fwd_n": 2076 }, { "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", @@ -1073,9 +1101,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 56.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.055, - "fwd_n": 169 + "fwd_win": 56.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.063, + "fwd_n": 172 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1091,20 +1119,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07, "fwd_n": 46 }, - { - "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", - "name": "0x60a92c86", - "train_win": 77.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.098, - "train_z": 2.02, - "z_all": 2.02, - "med_stake": 5714, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 122, - "fwd_win": 70.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023, - "fwd_n": 68 - }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1119,6 +1133,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.028, "fwd_n": 296 }, + { + "wallet": "0x0b9353aea88d01ed1912013b435dd39947d0a6cc", + "name": "0x0b9353ae", + "train_win": 77.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.093, + "train_z": 3.87, + "z_all": 2.98, + "med_stake": 164, + "avg_entry": 0.69, + "train_n": 400, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x536be02af900fe046fa708c8059c04f737a2cee3", "name": "0x536be02a", @@ -1217,34 +1245,34 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.083, "fwd_n": 60 }, + { + "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", + "name": "0x0d42cc5f", + "train_win": 68.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.025, + "train_z": 2.33, + "z_all": 6.69, + "med_stake": 448, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 378, + "fwd_win": 71.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 71 + }, { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", "name": "0xe1a532a9", - "train_win": 69.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.027, - "train_z": 3.06, + "train_win": 69.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.02, + "train_z": 2.98, "z_all": 3.8, - "med_stake": 130, - "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 379, + "med_stake": 124, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 400, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", - "name": "0x0d42cc5f", - "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.025, - "train_z": 2.34, - "z_all": 6.7, - "med_stake": 447, - "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 380, - "fwd_win": 72.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 59 - }, { "wallet": "0x16abe608bee11347334a2da15b96c185ee8e2f10", "name": "0x16abe608", diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 816a5023..58986563 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 41.21 + "floor": 40.68 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -26,18 +26,19 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 328.77 + "floor": 328.13 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", - "floor": 227.2 + "floor": 226.17 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "AIcAIc", - "class": "volume" + "class": "volume", + "floor": 332.88 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 4207bf4a..d66bc7ce 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
1 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-16 15:36
+68 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-17 20:13
How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.