From 7f70cbee065555354c1ebe277375da7f151d8913 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:30:39 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 272 ++++++++-------- live/dashboard.html | 14 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 520 ++++++++++++++---------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 594 +++++++++++++++-------------------- 5 files changed, 635 insertions(+), 767 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 37d22c18..2270f95c 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -199,9 +199,9 @@ "train_z": 8.43, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 239, - "fwd_win": 76.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.504, - "fwd_n": 47 + "fwd_win": 77.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.511, + "fwd_n": 48 }, { "wallet": "0xade74a23c444d0eebee00034459fbc269fab58af", @@ -431,18 +431,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x867eebbbcf50cdb072ad9a255c9b21f684adf66e", - "name": "0x867eebbb", - "train_win": 89.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.453, - "train_z": 2.44, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 19, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x788cc3117a0a7ef3e8faff19216baec08c487b48", "name": "0x788cc311", @@ -851,6 +839,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", + "name": "0x5b6e9bce", + "train_win": 75.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.275, + "train_z": 4.21, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 149, + "fwd_win": 72.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.305, + "fwd_n": 54 + }, { "wallet": "0xa25a4000033140862243b055703e96fb035a39d9", "name": "0xa25a4000", @@ -1007,6 +1007,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc9bfb9f0e5aee346b121b36a31f4c1c0af528ec8", + "name": "0xc9bfb9f0", + "train_win": 74.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.234, + "train_z": 2.69, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 101, + "fwd_win": 57.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.038, + "fwd_n": 128 + }, { "wallet": "0x30d05e6f3adea1a242432516060c098524f2ee0b", "name": "0x30d05e6f", @@ -1056,28 +1068,16 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0xc9bfb9f0e5aee346b121b36a31f4c1c0af528ec8", - "name": "0xc9bfb9f0", - "train_win": 75.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.226, - "train_z": 2.87, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 118, - "fwd_win": 61.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.088, - "fwd_n": 90 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", - "name": "0x5b6e9bce", - "train_win": 73.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.223, - "train_z": 3.5, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 147, - "fwd_win": 71.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.31, - "fwd_n": 52 + "wallet": "0x6e44a4ceea65c897ff6b728b88b69cfc1d7821bc", + "name": "0x6e44a4ce", + "train_win": 85.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.224, + "train_z": 3.42, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 104, + "fwd_win": 73.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.054, + "fwd_n": 60 }, { "wallet": "0xd850ba1fbcc01d31bc9ce38ef2c1bc3d3ccf06d2", @@ -1211,18 +1211,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", - "name": "0x41558102", - "train_win": 85.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.199, - "train_z": 4.35, - "avg_entry": 0.75, - "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 90.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.152, - "fwd_n": 125 - }, { "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "0xa1d57d32", @@ -1235,6 +1223,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.024, "fwd_n": 97 }, + { + "wallet": "0x234ce840d38e74d3638686962eb42ea9b3946475", + "name": "0x234ce840", + "train_win": 83.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.195, + "train_z": 3.3, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 129, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 1 + }, { "wallet": "0x92b95f492d69fbb1449a5f07dbaaad2e7de71eca", "name": "0x92b95f49", @@ -1247,6 +1247,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", + "name": "0x41558102", + "train_win": 85.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.191, + "train_z": 4.16, + "avg_entry": 0.75, + "train_n": 253, + "fwd_win": 89.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.135, + "fwd_n": 137 + }, { "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", "name": "0x1cff72c8", @@ -1418,26 +1430,14 @@ { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 78.0, + "train_win": 77.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.173, - "train_z": 4.11, + "train_z": 4.09, "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 254, - "fwd_win": 71.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.037, - "fwd_n": 91 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x74570d4da5c33aa03f19d3586aeace0bb7a11ec9", - "name": "0x74570d4d", - "train_win": 76.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.172, - "train_z": 6.8, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 449, - "fwd_win": 71.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.242, - "fwd_n": 28 + "train_n": 253, + "fwd_win": 72.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.027, + "fwd_n": 93 }, { "wallet": "0xd212624d423e1c351783fe71bb4250850d34feaf", @@ -1499,6 +1499,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.366, "fwd_n": 22 }, + { + "wallet": "0x74570d4da5c33aa03f19d3586aeace0bb7a11ec9", + "name": "0x74570d4d", + "train_win": 76.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.164, + "train_z": 6.56, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 442, + "fwd_win": 77.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.331, + "fwd_n": 35 + }, { "wallet": "0x73a5b01d8a0397eb1f0cde5299e71f76b62b5f91", "name": "0x73a5b01d", @@ -1787,6 +1799,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xec1d07e5379072429caa16bf6efeae71a6e4db17", + "name": "0xec1d07e5", + "train_win": 76.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.13, + "train_z": 2.65, + "avg_entry": 0.68, + "train_n": 152, + "fwd_win": 70.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.064, + "fwd_n": 167 + }, { "wallet": "0xaf4635074c8f9966ff44f2497183b53fc0578c1d", "name": "0xaf463507", @@ -1895,18 +1919,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xec1d07e5379072429caa16bf6efeae71a6e4db17", - "name": "0xec1d07e5", - "train_win": 77.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.115, - "train_z": 2.51, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 71.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.177, - "fwd_n": 97 - }, { "wallet": "0xd0f884f3fecca09f4a0945620b4befa64f3d73a1", "name": "0xd0f884f3", @@ -1919,18 +1931,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.084, "fwd_n": 11 }, - { - "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", - "name": "0x23f544a1", - "train_win": 71.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.113, - "train_z": 2.62, - "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 277, - "fwd_win": 79.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.179, - "fwd_n": 93 - }, { "wallet": "0xc12408e67c9ec46adfbb02214f9247775758003b", "name": "0xc12408e6", @@ -2027,6 +2027,30 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", + "name": "0x23f544a1", + "train_win": 71.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.107, + "train_z": 2.61, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 292, + "fwd_win": 80.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.15, + "fwd_n": 108 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 70.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.107, + "train_z": 3.18, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 375, + "fwd_win": 62.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.083, + "fwd_n": 98 + }, { "wallet": "0xe89b2ad092a1a78789305423632b6e56c0eb701f", "name": "0xe89b2ad0", @@ -2075,6 +2099,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", + "name": "0x86c878cd", + "train_win": 77.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.101, + "train_z": 2.9, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 287, + "fwd_win": 75.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.254, + "fwd_n": 90 + }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -2107,21 +2143,9 @@ "train_z": 2.75, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 292, - "fwd_win": 69.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.092, - "fwd_n": 193 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", - "name": "0x86c878cd", - "train_win": 76.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.097, - "train_z": 2.86, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 291, - "fwd_win": 75.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.277, - "fwd_n": 83 + "fwd_win": 69.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.091, + "fwd_n": 205 }, { "wallet": "0xea9f038c28acdac1bd415f998c0d24e59e58045e", @@ -2219,18 +2243,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 1 }, - { - "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", - "name": "0xf3488e52", - "train_win": 78.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.088, - "train_z": 3.34, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 260, - "fwd_win": 77.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.151, - "fwd_n": 31 - }, { "wallet": "0x7cd287e617a5abb99b126d95ed1c191dd0061a01", "name": "0x7cd287e6", @@ -2244,16 +2256,16 @@ "fwd_n": 166 }, { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 69.8, + "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", + "name": "0xf3488e52", + "train_win": 78.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.087, - "train_z": 3.15, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 431, - "fwd_win": 70.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.239, - "fwd_n": 41 + "train_z": 3.32, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 259, + "fwd_win": 74.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.061, + "fwd_n": 90 }, { "wallet": "0x9f2c955bdf958f6eecb5b5b04583a2203608d0df", @@ -2323,9 +2335,9 @@ "train_z": 3.15, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 432, - "fwd_win": 68.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.008, - "fwd_n": 180 + "fwd_win": 68.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.005, + "fwd_n": 181 }, { "wallet": "0x29ab15c6b6b16604e1cbd9a2f9580cf403336c4d", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 192b4d97..fa4eeb9c 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

61 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-23 10:33

+

54 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-24 10:30

-
Validated wallets
61
-
Median z
4.2
-
Median OOS z
3.2
-
Value / longshot
37
-
Favorite-rider
12
+
Validated wallets
54
+
Median z
4.4
+
Median OOS z
3.4
+
Value / longshot
33
+
Favorite-rider
10
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.