diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 2f5f944d..783addd0 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -33,13 +33,13 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.95, + "z_all": 20.89, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 96.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.014, - "fwd_n": 26 + "fwd_win": 96.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.017, + "fwd_n": 27 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", @@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ "med_stake": 474, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 322, - "fwd_win": 99.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.057, - "fwd_n": 245 + "fwd_win": 99.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.061, + "fwd_n": 268 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -94,8 +94,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 106, "fwd_win": 99.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.165, - "fwd_n": 113 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.164, + "fwd_n": 114 }, { "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", @@ -135,9 +135,9 @@ "med_stake": 308, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 76.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.839, - "fwd_n": 67 + "fwd_win": 75.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.817, + "fwd_n": 70 }, { "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", @@ -275,9 +275,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 82, - "fwd_win": 77.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.085, - "fwd_n": 275 + "fwd_win": 78.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 290 }, { "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", @@ -331,9 +331,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 62.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.172, - "fwd_n": 228 + "fwd_win": 62.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.186, + "fwd_n": 239 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -373,9 +373,9 @@ "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, - "fwd_win": 52.1, + "fwd_win": 51.9, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.26, - "fwd_n": 211 + "fwd_n": 210 }, { "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", @@ -401,9 +401,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 69.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.19, - "fwd_n": 256 + "fwd_win": 70.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.196, + "fwd_n": 269 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -415,9 +415,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 61.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.128, - "fwd_n": 240 + "fwd_win": 60.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.13, + "fwd_n": 260 }, { "wallet": "0xc904211fd4412d5caa0b51f923304bf5e1821e9a", @@ -443,9 +443,9 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 60.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.063, - "fwd_n": 115 + "fwd_win": 59.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.044, + "fwd_n": 123 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -471,9 +471,9 @@ "med_stake": 60, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 84, - "fwd_win": 76.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.138, - "fwd_n": 336 + "fwd_win": 76.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.147, + "fwd_n": 339 }, { "wallet": "0x0bd753cbeb82b4dc735fdd84955f99fbaf258553", @@ -485,9 +485,9 @@ "med_stake": 117, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 71, - "fwd_win": 58.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.058, - "fwd_n": 48 + "fwd_win": 56.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036, + "fwd_n": 53 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -579,13 +579,13 @@ "train_win": 81.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.23, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 4.01, + "z_all": 3.88, "med_stake": 231, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 112, - "fwd_win": 73.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 52 + "fwd_win": 74.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, + "fwd_n": 66 }, { "wallet": "0x1f2ea878eece1493f887f6ad99fd41cbe68a1730", @@ -611,9 +611,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 66.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.303, - "fwd_n": 215 + "fwd_win": 66.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.324, + "fwd_n": 217 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -695,23 +695,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 87.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.135, - "fwd_n": 340 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", - "name": "0x93164f2f", - "train_win": 65.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.196, - "train_z": 3.24, - "z_all": 2.67, - "med_stake": 100, - "avg_entry": 0.55, - "train_n": 225, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 + "fwd_win": 87.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, + "fwd_n": 370 }, { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", @@ -723,9 +709,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 234, - "fwd_win": 74.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.049, - "fwd_n": 486 + "fwd_win": 74.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.055, + "fwd_n": 526 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -741,6 +727,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019, "fwd_n": 282 }, + { + "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", + "name": "0x93164f2f", + "train_win": 65.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.189, + "train_z": 3.16, + "z_all": 2.7, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 224, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 1 + }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", "name": "0x3eff118d", @@ -793,9 +793,9 @@ "med_stake": 1019, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 74.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.041, - "fwd_n": 206 + "fwd_win": 74.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.023, + "fwd_n": 224 }, { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", @@ -807,9 +807,9 @@ "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, - "fwd_win": 69.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.043, - "fwd_n": 96 + "fwd_win": 70.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.033, + "fwd_n": 97 }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", @@ -867,6 +867,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x1c5575dc20e4ea54d1bb09ccda72ccf8a3b684ce", + "name": "0x1c5575dc", + "train_win": 66.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.159, + "train_z": 3.74, + "z_all": 2.24, + "med_stake": 65, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 417, + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.168, + "fwd_n": 3 + }, { "wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977", "name": "0x46b2f8a8", @@ -881,20 +895,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", - "name": "0xed61f86b", - "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.149, - "train_z": 3.12, - "z_all": 10.35, - "med_stake": 1317, - "avg_entry": 0.66, - "train_n": 305, - "fwd_win": 85.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, - "fwd_n": 21 - }, { "wallet": "0x1aeebd7b0eb92037a630004f8eabc0759c36c139", "name": "0x1aeebd7b", @@ -909,34 +909,48 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.015, "fwd_n": 35 }, - { - "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448", - "name": "0x13464aab", - "train_win": 70.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.143, - "train_z": 3.87, - "z_all": 8.56, - "med_stake": 168, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.255, - "fwd_n": 135 - }, { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", "train_win": 67.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.142, - "train_z": 6.71, - "z_all": 2.39, - "med_stake": 188, + "train_conv_roi": 0.144, + "train_z": 6.72, + "z_all": 2.46, + "med_stake": 189, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 733, + "train_n": 732, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 }, + { + "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448", + "name": "0x13464aab", + "train_win": 70.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.14, + "train_z": 3.81, + "z_all": 8.55, + "med_stake": 168, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 337, + "fwd_win": 66.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.229, + "fwd_n": 142 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", + "name": "0xed61f86b", + "train_win": 73.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.137, + "train_z": 3.04, + "z_all": 10.28, + "med_stake": 1305, + "avg_entry": 0.66, + "train_n": 305, + "fwd_win": 85.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, + "fwd_n": 21 + }, { "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f", "name": "0x3ab5ad27", @@ -982,16 +996,16 @@ { "wallet": "0xa9aca75fb5d8f04c2ec9eeb0eb0c30d2e526c5d1", "name": "0xa9aca75f", - "train_win": 65.7, + "train_win": 65.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.125, - "train_z": 2.82, - "z_all": 2.7, + "train_z": 2.84, + "z_all": 2.69, "med_stake": 1410, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 254, - "fwd_win": 62.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.291, - "fwd_n": 191 + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 255, + "fwd_win": 62.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.289, + "fwd_n": 187 }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", @@ -1003,9 +1017,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 82.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.106, - "fwd_n": 210 + "fwd_win": 82.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, + "fwd_n": 223 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1021,20 +1035,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.036, "fwd_n": 135 }, - { - "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", - "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 66.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.12, - "train_z": 2.49, - "z_all": 2.77, - "med_stake": 772, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 123, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0xe74b89a7c41f37460a977a542488429bbe09ee88", "name": "0xe74b89a7", @@ -1097,7 +1097,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, "train_z": 2.41, - "z_all": 2.9, + "z_all": 2.93, "med_stake": 6664, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 226, @@ -1115,9 +1115,23 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 72.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.097, - "fwd_n": 168 + "fwd_win": 72.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.101, + "fwd_n": 175 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", + "name": "0x7ccec296", + "train_win": 66.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.113, + "train_z": 2.37, + "z_all": 2.73, + "med_stake": 774, + "avg_entry": 0.56, + "train_n": 121, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", @@ -1185,9 +1199,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 56.5, + "fwd_win": 56.6, "fwd_conv_roi": -0.051, - "fwd_n": 186 + "fwd_n": 189 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1265,7 +1279,7 @@ "train_win": 69.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.088, "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 2.08, + "z_all": 2.09, "med_stake": 56, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 319, @@ -1346,13 +1360,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x809205fb1c91f746b9703ca412c4fdd0435db8a2", "name": "0x809205fb", - "train_win": 76.1, + "train_win": 76.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.045, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.96, + "z_all": 2.97, "med_stake": 98, "avg_entry": 0.72, - "train_n": 264, + "train_n": 263, "fwd_win": 77.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082, "fwd_n": 27 @@ -1395,9 +1409,9 @@ "med_stake": 448, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 378, - "fwd_win": 71.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.073, - "fwd_n": 99 + "fwd_win": 71.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.074, + "fwd_n": 104 }, { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", @@ -1433,7 +1447,7 @@ "train_win": 75.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.016, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.16, + "z_all": 2.18, "med_stake": 3442, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 361, diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 2f16d544..fda4fd2c 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 32.46 + "floor": 30.71 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -26,19 +26,19 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 316.98 + "floor": 314.43 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", - "floor": 220.35 + "floor": 219.66 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "AIcAIc", "class": "volume", - "floor": 369.27 + "floor": 375.06 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 74d57afb..839e3d17 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
66 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-22 12:48
+64 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-23 10:43
How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.