From 74704cd99d2016e448e8628ef9fd36d5eeeee3ab Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 13:38:58 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 288 +++--- live/copybot.paper.json | 143 +-- live/dashboard.html | 10 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow_missed.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_missed.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1584 ++++++++++++++--------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 432 ++++---- 9 files changed, 1217 insertions(+), 1248 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 783addd0..342b25d7 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ "med_stake": 97, "avg_entry": 0.33, "train_n": 13, - "fwd_win": 53.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.247, - "fwd_n": 13 + "fwd_win": 53.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.202, + "fwd_n": 15 }, { "wallet": "0xf5fe759cece500f58a431ef8dacea321f6e3e23d", @@ -33,12 +33,12 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.89, + "z_all": 20.92, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, "fwd_win": 96.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.017, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.015, "fwd_n": 27 }, { @@ -52,8 +52,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 322, "fwd_win": 99.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.061, - "fwd_n": 268 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.06, + "fwd_n": 277 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -94,8 +94,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 106, "fwd_win": 99.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.164, - "fwd_n": 114 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.161, + "fwd_n": 117 }, { "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", @@ -149,9 +149,9 @@ "med_stake": 80, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 183, - "fwd_win": 92.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.775, - "fwd_n": 67 + "fwd_win": 92.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.778, + "fwd_n": 68 }, { "wallet": "0xd7664fe4744856866d3ee36b84ec6e77a7025eb1", @@ -268,16 +268,16 @@ { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", - "train_win": 76.8, + "train_win": 77.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.45, - "train_z": 3.55, + "train_z": 3.68, "z_all": 4.53, "med_stake": 68, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 82, - "fwd_win": 78.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, - "fwd_n": 290 + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 83, + "fwd_win": 79.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, + "fwd_n": 316 }, { "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", @@ -285,7 +285,7 @@ "train_win": 70.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.437, "train_z": 4.99, - "z_all": 13.26, + "z_all": 13.36, "med_stake": 3505, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 350, @@ -331,9 +331,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 62.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.186, - "fwd_n": 239 + "fwd_win": 62.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.187, + "fwd_n": 246 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -367,9 +367,9 @@ "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.379, - "train_z": 7.98, - "z_all": 14.58, + "train_conv_roi": 0.378, + "train_z": 7.97, + "z_all": 14.61, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, @@ -401,9 +401,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 70.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.196, - "fwd_n": 269 + "fwd_win": 70.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.193, + "fwd_n": 273 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -425,7 +425,7 @@ "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.08, + "z_all": 4.09, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -443,9 +443,9 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 59.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.044, - "fwd_n": 123 + "fwd_win": 59.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.04, + "fwd_n": 125 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -457,9 +457,9 @@ "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 55.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.312, - "fwd_n": 287 + "fwd_win": 55.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.306, + "fwd_n": 294 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", @@ -471,8 +471,8 @@ "med_stake": 60, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 84, - "fwd_win": 76.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.147, + "fwd_win": 76.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.143, "fwd_n": 339 }, { @@ -523,7 +523,7 @@ "train_win": 89.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.271, "train_z": 3.09, - "z_all": 2.22, + "z_all": 2.21, "med_stake": 131, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 48, @@ -579,7 +579,7 @@ "train_win": 81.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.23, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 3.88, + "z_all": 3.84, "med_stake": 231, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 112, @@ -695,9 +695,23 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 87.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, - "fwd_n": 370 + "fwd_win": 87.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.125, + "fwd_n": 385 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xa2e5927b38c42d1fdd6c05d70492c3f4208fc8d1", + "name": "0xa2e5927b", + "train_win": 70.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.193, + "train_z": 1.78, + "z_all": 2.39, + "med_stake": 85, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 44, + "fwd_win": 50.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.101, + "fwd_n": 32 }, { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", @@ -709,9 +723,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 234, - "fwd_win": 74.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.055, - "fwd_n": 526 + "fwd_win": 74.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.049, + "fwd_n": 541 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -733,7 +747,7 @@ "train_win": 65.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.189, "train_z": 3.16, - "z_all": 2.7, + "z_all": 2.62, "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 224, @@ -765,9 +779,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 71.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.223, - "fwd_n": 249 + "fwd_win": 71.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.237, + "fwd_n": 255 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -797,20 +811,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.023, "fwd_n": 224 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", - "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.171, - "train_z": 3.82, - "z_all": 4.22, - "med_stake": 938, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 248, - "fwd_win": 70.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.033, - "fwd_n": 97 - }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", "name": "0xa6a67037", @@ -825,6 +825,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.403, "fwd_n": 68 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", + "name": "0xc684828f", + "train_win": 77.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.17, + "train_z": 3.81, + "z_all": 4.17, + "med_stake": 938, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 248, + "fwd_win": 70.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.033, + "fwd_n": 97 + }, { "wallet": "0x84571f1bf97a5c710cbe51daff2dd4556cc887fd", "name": "0x84571f1b", @@ -912,13 +926,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", - "train_win": 67.3, + "train_win": 67.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.144, - "train_z": 6.72, - "z_all": 2.46, + "train_z": 6.77, + "z_all": 2.48, "med_stake": 189, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 732, + "train_n": 730, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 @@ -933,9 +947,9 @@ "med_stake": 168, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 337, - "fwd_win": 66.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.229, - "fwd_n": 142 + "fwd_win": 67.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.248, + "fwd_n": 144 }, { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", @@ -994,18 +1008,18 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0xa9aca75fb5d8f04c2ec9eeb0eb0c30d2e526c5d1", - "name": "0xa9aca75f", - "train_win": 65.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.125, - "train_z": 2.84, - "z_all": 2.69, - "med_stake": 1410, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 255, - "fwd_win": 62.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.289, - "fwd_n": 187 + "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", + "name": "0x7ccec296", + "train_win": 66.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.128, + "train_z": 2.49, + "z_all": 2.7, + "med_stake": 772, + "avg_entry": 0.57, + "train_n": 121, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", @@ -1017,9 +1031,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 82.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, - "fwd_n": 223 + "fwd_win": 82.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, + "fwd_n": 231 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1063,6 +1077,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, "fwd_n": 324 }, + { + "wallet": "0xa9aca75fb5d8f04c2ec9eeb0eb0c30d2e526c5d1", + "name": "0xa9aca75f", + "train_win": 65.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.118, + "train_z": 2.76, + "z_all": 2.68, + "med_stake": 1410, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 255, + "fwd_win": 61.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.281, + "fwd_n": 189 + }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", "name": "0x9c5ee2db", @@ -1094,13 +1122,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1", "name": "0x8f692690", - "train_win": 77.0, + "train_win": 76.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, - "train_z": 2.41, - "z_all": 2.93, - "med_stake": 6664, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 226, + "train_z": 2.4, + "z_all": 2.94, + "med_stake": 6650, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 225, "fwd_win": 59.5, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.027, "fwd_n": 74 @@ -1119,20 +1147,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.101, "fwd_n": 175 }, - { - "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", - "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 66.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.113, - "train_z": 2.37, - "z_all": 2.73, - "med_stake": 774, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 121, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", "name": "0xab417c0b", @@ -1199,9 +1213,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 56.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.051, - "fwd_n": 189 + "fwd_win": 56.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.052, + "fwd_n": 192 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1217,20 +1231,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07, "fwd_n": 46 }, - { - "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", - "name": "0x60a92c86", - "train_win": 77.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.098, - "train_z": 2.02, - "z_all": 2.0, - "med_stake": 5714, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 122, - "fwd_win": 70.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.001, - "fwd_n": 67 - }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1273,13 +1273,27 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", + "name": "0x60a92c86", + "train_win": 77.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.089, + "train_z": 1.97, + "z_all": 2.0, + "med_stake": 5599, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 123, + "fwd_win": 70.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023, + "fwd_n": 68 + }, { "wallet": "0x3746dc1ec0dc01352dc141b310e5da81fd7ea99f", "name": "0x3746dc1e", "train_win": 69.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.088, "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 2.09, + "z_all": 2.06, "med_stake": 56, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 319, @@ -1362,9 +1376,9 @@ "name": "0x809205fb", "train_win": 76.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.045, - "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.97, - "med_stake": 98, + "train_z": 1.78, + "z_all": 2.96, + "med_stake": 97, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 263, "fwd_win": 77.8, @@ -1409,9 +1423,9 @@ "med_stake": 448, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 378, - "fwd_win": 71.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.074, - "fwd_n": 104 + "fwd_win": 69.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.108, + "fwd_n": 123 }, { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", @@ -1482,5 +1496,19 @@ "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787", + "name": "0x993c0725", + "train_win": 65.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.007, + "train_z": 1.78, + "z_all": 2.02, + "med_stake": 6032, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 93, + "fwd_win": 63.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.081, + "fwd_n": 46 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index e4b56831..6c87a371 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -1,75 +1,76 @@ { - "mode": "paper", - "bankroll_usd": 1000.0, - "bankroll_pct": 0.04, - "wallets": [ - { - "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", - "name": "Kruto2027", - "class": "volume", - "floor": 80.0, - "floor_pin": 80.0 + "mode": "paper", + "bankroll_usd": 1000.0, + "bankroll_pct": 0.04, + "wallets": [ + { + "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", + "name": "Kruto2027", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 80.0, + "floor_pin": 80.0 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", + "name": "0xbadaf319", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 27.5 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", + "name": "gkmgkldfmg", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 470.51 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", + "name": "1kto1m", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 314.91 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", + "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 227.01 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", + "name": "AIcAIc", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 379.05 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", + "name": "JuiceFarm", + "class": "volume", + "floor": 735.0 + } + ], + "follow": { + "buy_only": true, + "entry_mode": "maker", + "exit_mode": "mirror", + "min_their_usd": 25.0, + "min_entry": 0.0, + "max_entry": 0.95, + "class_pct": { + "volume": 0.04, + "whale": 0.12 + }, + "mirror_sell_min_p": 0.9, + "conviction_scope": "trade" }, - { - "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", - "name": "0xbadaf319", - "class": "volume", - "floor": 30.71 + "risk": { + "max_trade_usd": 1000000.0, + "max_position_usd": 1000000.0, + "daily_spend_cap_usd": 1000000.0, + "max_total_exposure_usd": 1000000.0, + "max_open_positions": 1000, + "min_price": 0.0, + "max_price": 0.99, + "min_order_usd": 5.0, + "max_per_event": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", - "name": "gkmgkldfmg", - "class": "volume", - "floor": 470.51 - }, - { - "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", - "name": "1kto1m", - "class": "volume", - "floor": 314.43 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", - "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", - "class": "volume", - "floor": 219.66 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", - "name": "AIcAIc", - "class": "volume", - "floor": 375.06 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", - "name": "JuiceFarm", - "class": "volume" - } - ], - "follow": { - "buy_only": true, - "entry_mode": "maker", - "exit_mode": "mirror", - "min_their_usd": 25.0, - "min_entry": 0.0, - "max_entry": 0.95, - "class_pct": { - "volume": 0.04, - "whale": 0.12 - }, - "mirror_sell_min_p": 0.9, - "conviction_scope": "trade" - }, - "risk": { - "max_trade_usd": 1000000.0, - "max_position_usd": 1000000.0, - "daily_spend_cap_usd": 1000000.0, - "max_total_exposure_usd": 1000000.0, - "max_open_positions": 1000, - "min_price": 0.0, - "max_price": 0.99, - "min_order_usd": 5.0, - "max_per_event": 0 - }, - "price_guard_abs": 0.05 + "price_guard_abs": 0.05 } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 839e3d17..860ffb24 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

64 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-23 10:43

+

63 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-24 13:38

-
Validated wallets
64
+
Validated wallets
63
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.2
+
Median OOS z
3.1
Value / longshot
46
-
Favorite-rider
9
+
Favorite-rider
8
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.