From 709faa2bca43bdd8bc8da9df5fe56ab7cf61798a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:59:09 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 416 ++++---- live/copybot.paper.json | 9 +- live/dashboard.html | 12 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1944 ++++++++++------------------------ live/watch_skilled.json | 606 ++++++++--- 6 files changed, 1256 insertions(+), 1733 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 2da4d777..8ccd1f88 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -33,27 +33,27 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.92, + "z_all": 20.89, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, "fwd_win": 100.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.146, - "fwd_n": 19 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.148, + "fwd_n": 18 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", "name": "0x72e15978", "train_win": 99.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.97, - "train_z": 17.89, + "train_z": 17.86, "z_all": 29.09, - "med_stake": 424, + "med_stake": 426, "avg_entry": 0.52, - "train_n": 335, + "train_n": 334, "fwd_win": 99.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.074, - "fwd_n": 192 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.069, + "fwd_n": 203 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 106, "fwd_win": 99.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.177, - "fwd_n": 96 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.182, + "fwd_n": 97 }, { "wallet": "0x47b38c600fc56ad63b17df7112b04ea4c975cb08", @@ -107,9 +107,9 @@ "med_stake": 308, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 76.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.88, - "fwd_n": 64 + "fwd_win": 75.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.851, + "fwd_n": 65 }, { "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", @@ -159,7 +159,7 @@ "train_win": 72.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.549, "train_z": 2.99, - "z_all": 2.2, + "z_all": 2.25, "med_stake": 427, "avg_entry": 0.45, "train_n": 29, @@ -243,13 +243,13 @@ "train_win": 76.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.455, "train_z": 3.54, - "z_all": 4.55, + "z_all": 4.67, "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 81, - "fwd_win": 77.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.114, - "fwd_n": 188 + "fwd_win": 76.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, + "fwd_n": 200 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -279,20 +279,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.389, "fwd_n": 5 }, - { - "wallet": "0xf82addf4684c494dff04d634bed736d5039f237f", - "name": "0xf82addf4", - "train_win": 88.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.42, - "train_z": 2.22, - "z_all": 2.14, - "med_stake": 100, - "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 18, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "0x921433c9", @@ -307,6 +293,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.138, "fwd_n": 202 }, + { + "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", + "name": "0x88ad3166", + "train_win": 86.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.411, + "train_z": 3.23, + "z_all": 2.16, + "med_stake": 58, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 45, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0xbf1040ad7009ed6532f885c2043630d1cedf15ce", "name": "0xbf1040ad", @@ -322,29 +322,15 @@ "fwd_n": 10 }, { - "wallet": "0xc4d5a24a240ec9f52669e3251e0473fd0c5687cf", - "name": "0xc4d5a24a", - "train_win": 91.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.4, - "train_z": 2.25, - "z_all": 3.86, - "med_stake": 1636, - "avg_entry": 0.74, - "train_n": 23, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", - "name": "0x88ad3166", - "train_win": 87.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.38, - "train_z": 3.09, - "z_all": 2.6, - "med_stake": 58, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 46, + "wallet": "0xf82addf4684c494dff04d634bed736d5039f237f", + "name": "0xf82addf4", + "train_win": 88.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.39, + "train_z": 2.14, + "z_all": 2.28, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 18, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -353,15 +339,15 @@ "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.377, - "train_z": 7.98, - "z_all": 14.51, - "med_stake": 838, + "train_conv_roi": 0.375, + "train_z": 7.93, + "z_all": 14.48, + "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.53, - "train_n": 485, - "fwd_win": 57.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, - "fwd_n": 129 + "train_n": 484, + "fwd_win": 57.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.122, + "fwd_n": 130 }, { "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", @@ -373,9 +359,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 71.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.233, - "fwd_n": 219 + "fwd_win": 70.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.228, + "fwd_n": 220 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -387,37 +373,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 60.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.135, - "fwd_n": 213 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x1b73480fbf1bc450991d93f687570ccdf6b545d9", - "name": "0x1b73480f", - "train_win": 80.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.338, - "train_z": 2.07, - "z_all": 2.08, - "med_stake": 110, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 30, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x8c44dcfe1178aa04dfa44e000f5b89a054027baf", - "name": "0x8c44dcfe", - "train_win": 82.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.331, - "train_z": 2.19, - "z_all": 4.1, - "med_stake": 127, - "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 29, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 + "fwd_win": 59.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, + "fwd_n": 216 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -457,23 +415,23 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 61.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, - "fwd_n": 76 + "fwd_win": 62.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, + "fwd_n": 78 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", "name": "0xf6099a9e", - "train_win": 83.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.306, - "train_z": 4.22, - "z_all": 3.86, - "med_stake": 57, + "train_win": 83.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.308, + "train_z": 4.21, + "z_all": 3.89, + "med_stake": 59, "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 87, - "fwd_win": 74.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, - "fwd_n": 263 + "train_n": 86, + "fwd_win": 74.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.103, + "fwd_n": 265 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -503,6 +461,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.013, "fwd_n": 31 }, + { + "wallet": "0x8c44dcfe1178aa04dfa44e000f5b89a054027baf", + "name": "0x8c44dcfe", + "train_win": 82.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.292, + "train_z": 1.98, + "z_all": 4.0, + "med_stake": 127, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 28, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", "name": "0x460d15ce", @@ -548,13 +520,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.238, - "train_z": 3.86, - "z_all": 3.96, - "med_stake": 221, + "train_win": 81.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.23, + "train_z": 3.76, + "z_all": 3.92, + "med_stake": 231, "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 113, + "train_n": 112, "fwd_win": 73.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, "fwd_n": 52 @@ -569,9 +541,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 65.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.359, - "fwd_n": 163 + "fwd_win": 65.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.34, + "fwd_n": 170 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -593,7 +565,7 @@ "train_win": 67.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.212, "train_z": 3.36, - "z_all": 2.1, + "z_all": 2.05, "med_stake": 800, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 159, @@ -611,9 +583,9 @@ "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 44, - "fwd_win": 55.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.18, - "fwd_n": 18 + "fwd_win": 59.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.118, + "fwd_n": 22 }, { "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", @@ -625,9 +597,9 @@ "med_stake": 220, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 74.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.122, - "fwd_n": 31 + "fwd_win": 75.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.149, + "fwd_n": 32 }, { "wallet": "0xe0b311527157158117b34bb5841dcb45602c4132", @@ -663,13 +635,13 @@ "train_win": 85.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.198, "train_z": 4.84, - "z_all": 12.1, + "z_all": 12.04, "med_stake": 348, "avg_entry": 0.75, "train_n": 295, - "fwd_win": 87.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.145, - "fwd_n": 277 + "fwd_win": 87.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.141, + "fwd_n": 279 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -681,9 +653,9 @@ "med_stake": 287, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 65, - "fwd_win": 56.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.037, - "fwd_n": 272 + "fwd_win": 56.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019, + "fwd_n": 282 }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", @@ -709,9 +681,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 73.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.244, - "fwd_n": 180 + "fwd_win": 73.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.24, + "fwd_n": 183 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -727,6 +699,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.481, "fwd_n": 11 }, + { + "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", + "name": "0x12f93b2a", + "train_win": 81.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.173, + "train_z": 4.02, + "z_all": 11.67, + "med_stake": 1019, + "avg_entry": 0.72, + "train_n": 336, + "fwd_win": 73.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.046, + "fwd_n": 184 + }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", "name": "0xa6a67037", @@ -741,13 +727,27 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.409, "fwd_n": 33 }, + { + "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", + "name": "0x0c3e55cf", + "train_win": 80.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.169, + "train_z": 3.8, + "z_all": 10.26, + "med_stake": 438, + "avg_entry": 0.72, + "train_n": 264, + "fwd_win": 74.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.027, + "fwd_n": 385 + }, { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "0xc684828f", "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.168, "train_z": 3.79, - "z_all": 4.04, + "z_all": 4.09, "med_stake": 929, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, @@ -755,20 +755,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.036, "fwd_n": 65 }, - { - "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", - "name": "0x0c3e55cf", - "train_win": 80.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.166, - "train_z": 3.74, - "z_all": 10.17, - "med_stake": 438, - "avg_entry": 0.72, - "train_n": 264, - "fwd_win": 74.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.026, - "fwd_n": 382 - }, { "wallet": "0x2842d5201b2119d0ec14581fee3c3324bc0c9bab", "name": "0x2842d520", @@ -803,7 +789,7 @@ "train_win": 69.7, "train_conv_roi": 0.151, "train_z": 3.87, - "z_all": 8.32, + "z_all": 8.3, "med_stake": 165, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 343, @@ -811,6 +797,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.192, "fwd_n": 117 }, + { + "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", + "name": "0x7ccec296", + "train_win": 69.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.151, + "train_z": 2.6, + "z_all": 2.64, + "med_stake": 785, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 113, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x1aeebd7b0eb92037a630004f8eabc0759c36c139", "name": "0x1aeebd7b", @@ -825,28 +825,14 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.063, "fwd_n": 23 }, - { - "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", - "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.141, - "train_z": 2.45, - "z_all": 2.64, - "med_stake": 785, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 114, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", "name": "0xed61f86b", "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.137, - "train_z": 3.04, - "z_all": 10.32, - "med_stake": 1305, + "train_conv_roi": 0.136, + "train_z": 3.03, + "z_all": 10.31, + "med_stake": 1315, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 305, "fwd_win": 85.7, @@ -884,10 +870,10 @@ { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", - "train_win": 65.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.129, - "train_z": 6.01, - "z_all": 2.19, + "train_win": 65.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.127, + "train_z": 5.97, + "z_all": 2.21, "med_stake": 189, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 702, @@ -933,9 +919,23 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 344, - "fwd_win": 84.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.108, - "fwd_n": 167 + "fwd_win": 83.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, + "fwd_n": 170 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x0b9353aea88d01ed1912013b435dd39947d0a6cc", + "name": "0x0b9353ae", + "train_win": 81.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.121, + "train_z": 4.2, + "z_all": 2.14, + "med_stake": 178, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 337, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 }, { "wallet": "0xe74b89a7c41f37460a977a542488429bbe09ee88", @@ -1017,9 +1017,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 71.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.108, - "fwd_n": 146 + "fwd_win": 70.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.102, + "fwd_n": 148 }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", @@ -1035,20 +1035,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -1.0, "fwd_n": 5 }, - { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 69.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.106, - "train_z": 3.19, - "z_all": 2.27, - "med_stake": 223, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 376, - "fwd_win": 64.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.129, - "fwd_n": 229 - }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -1063,6 +1049,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 69.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.104, + "train_z": 3.13, + "z_all": 2.27, + "med_stake": 223, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 377, + "fwd_win": 64.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.129, + "fwd_n": 229 + }, { "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "0x40ce68f1", @@ -1143,9 +1143,9 @@ "med_stake": 622, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 180, - "fwd_win": 65.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.043, - "fwd_n": 72 + "fwd_win": 65.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.045, + "fwd_n": 76 }, { "wallet": "0x02a40699b5893d160ac1ae719c0700fb95ca6854", @@ -1166,7 +1166,7 @@ "name": "0x809205fb", "train_win": 76.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.049, - "train_z": 1.81, + "train_z": 1.89, "z_all": 2.98, "med_stake": 97, "avg_entry": 0.73, @@ -1192,13 +1192,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", "name": "0x0d42cc5f", - "train_win": 68.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.023, + "train_win": 67.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.02, "train_z": 2.28, "z_all": 6.65, "med_stake": 447, - "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 381, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 382, "fwd_win": 71.9, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, "fwd_n": 57 @@ -1217,6 +1217,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.135, "fwd_n": 4 }, + { + "wallet": "0xe1d6b51521bd4365769199f392f9818661bd907c", + "name": "0xe1d6b515", + "train_win": 65.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.018, + "train_z": 3.42, + "z_all": 3.78, + "med_stake": 1158, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 492, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x83d9c8fe37f1b5141f3219219403d87f4513651b", "name": "0x83d9c8fe", diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 99027d60..0ba3b7fe 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,24 +14,25 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 44.13 + "floor": 44.12 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "class": "volume", - "floor": 457.26 + "floor": 470.51 }, { "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 328.07 + "floor": 328.32 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", - "class": "volume" + "class": "volume", + "floor": 221.89 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 8221f666..74d3b026 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

48 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-13 10:59

+

71 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-15 00:59

-
Validated wallets
48
-
Median z
4.8
-
Median OOS z
3.1
-
Value / longshot
35
+
Validated wallets
71
+
Median z
3.8
+
Median OOS z
3.0
+
Value / longshot
50
Favorite-rider
9
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.