diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl
index d3924f66..956b8e82 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl
@@ -1093,3 +1093,4 @@
 {"ts": 1785339122.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114023575411564465664998216295132384015264339083303639055288358207370730671183", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?", "detect_lag_s": 42.5, "their_price": 0.78, "my_price": 0.78, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 81.26, "cost": 63.38, "fee": 0.4183, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.74, "ba": 0.77, "spread": 0.03, "bid5c": 2325.89, "ask5c": 3196.18}, "maker": true}
 {"ts": 1785339642.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "8310650677069487821478025416478130051168635736368290554555541536659374960027", "shares": 0.6061, "price": 0.9, "fee": 0.0016, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785339665.0, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114023575411564465664998216295132384015264339083303639055288358207370730671183", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?", "detect_lag_s": 2.0, "their_price": 0.86, "my_price": 0.86, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 29.87, "cost": 25.69, "fee": 0.1079, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.85, "ba": 0.86, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 282.54, "ask5c": 3495.86}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785340136.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114023575411564465664998216295132384015264339083303639055288358207370730671183", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?", "detect_lag_s": 0.4, "their_price": 0.95, "my_price": 0.95, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 27.65, "cost": 26.27, "fee": 0.0394, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.94, "ba": 0.95, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 3411.62, "ask5c": 5315.07}, "maker": true}
diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index fb14cccd..e040cc96 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -2246,3 +2246,8 @@
 {"ts": 1785339723.9, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.23, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785340065.7, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785340067.5, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.23, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785340158.8, "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780", "their_size": 102.11, "their_prev": 2801.9972, "frac": 0.0364, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.67, "shares_held": 37.07, "cost_held": 24.47, "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming", "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785340166.5, "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780", "their_size": 5.0, "their_prev": 2515.8871999999997, "frac": 0.002, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.67, "shares_held": 37.07, "cost_held": 24.47, "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming", "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785340197.9, "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780", "their_size": 249.99, "their_prev": 2510.8871999999997, "frac": 0.0996, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.67, "shares_held": 37.07, "cost_held": 24.47, "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming", "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index a3cbf4d7..8b3632ae 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -807,3 +807,5 @@
 {"ts": 1785339663.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "105391664573040074459386750411057304577460216013252810931040915489579314785799", "cond": "0xf4d02c99ccff95a799a7a91e2bd50bdee45c5fc91aa008b177d092de45147703", "usd": 7.96, "price": 0.1199999873366832, "reason": "$8 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 29?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785339868.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "105391664573040074459386750411057304577460216013252810931040915489579314785799", "cond": "0xf4d02c99ccff95a799a7a91e2bd50bdee45c5fc91aa008b177d092de45147703", "usd": 1.34, "price": 0.08, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 29?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785339868.3, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114023575411564465664998216295132384015264339083303639055288358207370730671183", "cond": "0x869802de8596eae7fa820dc29d78e1bc3251629a5f87280ab95af2c632b02e13", "usd": 13.5, "price": 0.9, "reason": "$14 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785340136.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "105391664573040074459386750411057304577460216013252810931040915489579314785799", "cond": "0xf4d02c99ccff95a799a7a91e2bd50bdee45c5fc91aa008b177d092de45147703", "usd": 3.23, "price": 0.04, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 29?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785340161.2, "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "token": "18931496211934171519227929296667577682167545722426864800557970272723169928726", "cond": "0x1856bf14788ee30e5a06e8108cc12e99fd7f78f88702cb3d5f9de3264d74eb76", "usd": 0.04, "price": 0.12, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $379", "title": "LoL: LUA Gaming vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 2 Winner", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 115dd4e7..2a8f85ae 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,13 +1,6 @@
 {
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       "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?",
       "outcome": "No",
       "event": "ethereum-above-on-july-29-2026",
@@ -13870,7 +13870,7 @@
   },
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@@ -14072,34 +14072,14 @@
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       1785339665.0,
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@@ -19724,12 +19709,12 @@
       "outcome": "No",
       "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?",
       "their_price": 0.78,
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@@ -19739,8 +19724,8 @@
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@@ -23079,11 +23064,11 @@
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@@ -23091,94 +23076,19 @@
     "ts": 1785194148
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     "side": "BUY",
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-    "shares": 29.87,
+    "price": 0.95,
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     "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?",
     "outcome": "No"
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   "paper_maker": [],
   "maker_stats": {
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-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
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-      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
-    {
-      "ts": 1785317788.6,
-      "token": "44268329315636111419901094380165521911713439651558819204937076716198280335678",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.39,
-      "shares_held": 322.0,
-      "cost_held": 141.68,
-      "title": "LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner",
-      "outcome": "Top Esports",
-      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
-    {
-      "ts": 1785318121.6,
-      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.89,
-      "shares_held": 0.8746,
-      "cost_held": 0.61,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1785318123.2,
       "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
@@ -26103,6 +26013,81 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785340158.8,
+      "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780",
+      "their_size": 102.11,
+      "their_prev": 2801.9972,
+      "frac": 0.0364,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.67,
+      "shares_held": 37.07,
+      "cost_held": 24.47,
+      "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming",
+      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785340159.7,
+      "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780",
+      "their_size": 179,
+      "their_prev": 2699.8871999999997,
+      "frac": 0.0663,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.67,
+      "shares_held": 37.07,
+      "cost_held": 24.47,
+      "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming",
+      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785340166.4,
+      "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780",
+      "their_size": 5,
+      "their_prev": 2520.8871999999997,
+      "frac": 0.002,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.67,
+      "shares_held": 37.07,
+      "cost_held": 24.47,
+      "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming",
+      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785340166.5,
+      "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780",
+      "their_size": 5.0,
+      "their_prev": 2515.8871999999997,
+      "frac": 0.002,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.67,
+      "shares_held": 37.07,
+      "cost_held": 24.47,
+      "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming",
+      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785340197.9,
+      "token": "18336686533395239035817826518946179380426460262862186300738403852712569444780",
+      "their_size": 249.99,
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+      "frac": 0.0996,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.67,
+      "shares_held": 37.07,
+      "cost_held": 24.47,
+      "title": "Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Nemiga Gaming",
+      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index b0717d7a..0f8be3e9 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 127.28,
+ "stake": 127.27,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 3600.19,
- "cash": 1677.71,
- "deployed": 1504.2,
+ "cash": 1651.4,
+ "deployed": 1530.47,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 2181.88,
+ "realized": 2181.84,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
  "ledger_drift": -0.04,
  "open_count": 28,
- "fees_paid": 408.73,
+ "fees_paid": 408.77,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 307,
-  "n24": 14,
+  "n": 308,
+  "n24": 15,
   "basis": "24h",
-  "avg_s": 7.0,
+  "avg_s": 5.6,
   "avg_slip_pct": 0.0,
   "window_h": 24
  },
@@ -57,12 +57,12 @@
    "outcome": "No",
    "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?",
    "their_price": 0.78,
-   "my_price": 0.8015,
+   "my_price": 0.8311,
    "slippage_pct": 0.0,
    "lag_s": 42.5,
-   "shares": 111.13,
-   "cost": 89.07,
-   "fee": 0.53,
+   "shares": 138.78,
+   "cost": 115.34,
+   "fee": 0.57,
    "opened": 1785339080,
    "status": "open",
    "exit_price": null,
@@ -3108,10 +3108,10 @@
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 111333.07,
  "last_fill": {
-  "ts": 1785339665,
+  "ts": 1785340136,
   "side": "BUY",
-  "price": 0.86,
-  "shares": 29.87,
+  "price": 0.95,
+  "shares": 27.65,
   "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?",
   "outcome": "No"
  },
@@ -3120,7 +3120,7 @@
    "realized": 432.72,
    "n": 70,
    "wins": 23,
-   "open_cost": 966.72,
+   "open_cost": 992.99,
    "open_n": 17,
    "miss_n": 92,
    "miss_pnl": 112018.58,
@@ -3217,5 +3217,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785340069
+ "updated": 1785340166
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index f9df0f5e..ae586589 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785340069,
+ "updated": 1785340166,
  "wallet_pnl": {
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    "n": 70,
    "wins": 23,
-   "open_cost": 966.72,
+   "open_cost": 992.99,
    "open_n": 17,
    "miss_n": 92,
    "miss_pnl": 112018.58,
@@ -111,12 +111,12 @@
    "outcome": "No",
    "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?",
    "their_price": 0.78,
-   "my_price": 0.8014775487299152,
+   "my_price": 0.831068597711165,
    "slippage_pct": 0.0,
    "lag_s": 42.5,
-   "shares": 111.13000000000001,
-   "cost": 89.06819999035548,
-   "fee": 0.5262,
+   "shares": 138.78,
+   "cost": 115.33569999035548,
+   "fee": 0.5656,
    "opened": 1785339080,
    "status": "open",
    "exit_price": null,
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index eac5396c..53830a4e 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2125,3 +2125,12 @@
 {"ts": 1785339663.28, "trade_ts": 1785339663, "lat_s": 0.28, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 66.333332, "price": 0.1199999873366832, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on J", "tx": "0x4348f07641b0e0aafa13c5beb8554c1ce31d2dc879997e4ad019e0717693c0ae", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1785339663.67, "trade_ts": 1785339663, "lat_s": 0.67, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 61.941857, "price": 0.8599999996771166, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?", "tx": "0x0262464d3f8a398b556af195d28c40c56e45e93cc6faa7c25c77c347440e3b20", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1785339934.75, "trade_ts": 1785339934, "lat_s": 0.75, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "SELL", "size": 16, "price": 0.921, "title": "Israel closes its airspace by July 31?", "tx": "0x40b89816aee61a3c4a30338c90552812744513f7ea400da5cf2a83a453ad39c2", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785340116.42, "trade_ts": 1785340116, "lat_s": 0.42, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "SELL", "size": 210, "price": 0.37, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?", "tx": "0x036ed1aee685b4548503d4f9957e0ab082241a3a9c8c8fb8941666f3f260edfa", "seen": false}
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