diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl
index fe14764e..20edbcc9 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl
@@ -1258,3 +1258,6 @@
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 {"ts": 1785702015.4, "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "token": "25666257384729943287558818626325079689158559409645151459011325464093864355481", "name": "AIcAIc", "outcome": "LYON", "title": "LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner", "detect_lag_s": 7.4, "their_price": 0.48, "my_price": 0.48, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 114.62, "cost": 55.02, "fee": 0.8583, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.46, "ba": 0.47, "spread": 0.01, "bid5c": 2194.24, "ask5c": 3888.32}, "maker": true}
 {"ts": 1785704178.8, "side": "SELL", "token": "25666257384729943287558818626325079689158559409645151459011325464093864355481", "shares": 114.62, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
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diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index c695a385..b06b819f 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -5575,3 +5575,29 @@
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 {"ts": 1785706223.6, "token": "69096949813045225336683960679829035937696902053122957721872788215708031375062", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.003, "shares_held": 431.49, "cost_held": 56.09, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785706225.0, "token": "36288736401955665119786973077283875206752336249826000621290926077161772340777", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.001, "shares_held": 97.11, "cost_held": 56.16, "title": "LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Movistar KOI", "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785707923.8, "token": "36288736401955665119786973077283875206752336249826000621290926077161772340777", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.001, "shares_held": 97.11, "cost_held": 56.16, "title": "LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Movistar KOI", "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index 417c0577..d3ccf603 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -2041,3 +2041,12 @@
 {"ts": 1785705564.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "8846759894545333316665370992966512639253402156980691804622837028256703772554", "cond": "0x862e28b94132fa7a1fba1368de96c8fc2dc5249c8a55ba1c965a8e54c79424e5", "usd": 5.66, "price": 0.17999997646643, "reason": "$6 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 in August?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785705564.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "41924814385271001327475674741821953575251218962289218166941963169991583786761", "cond": "0xd9424ce031bb1a0fe039063773eb22901d07361afac583fca40d8b1a8112a7f3", "usd": 5.34, "price": 0.79, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $164 in August?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785705877.9, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "61645681256010071335299574152617207566194068598427948761885494065483459076868", "cond": "0x935b3f6056d8265355e7a51c0a89cea9b83096e904a22be1f8bfd802f21ebadc", "usd": 7.16, "price": 0.49, "reason": "$7 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will \"Petal\" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785706833.2, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "59663288305320572498565165844635123869415672959228703569802824190102668867470", "cond": "0x8cf0cd6a57d903c6c321ed74913c225e74ca7522e8cbc5846a81a191ccc9e3e3", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.4442813255668396, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785706898.8, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "57183668547172424432356612075515208667422020948179508683908566129801961332276", "cond": "0xdbaa19c72378f7eb2fc01c0b40404857a1b1e68e3561ce5bbe792a24ce79377e", "usd": 5.52, "price": 0.1, "reason": "$6 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Israel closes its airspace by August 15?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785707466.7, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "19888785132295659166493131960919127221717307810914388924917260522556611183878", "cond": "0xdac848b489d221b65b074e6c39a1298491e39024c93a5ae457a78dc0c87f1d66", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.459999998252, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785708014.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "96572585538136779506131860066606437247774195932346976856145088230061972179544", "cond": "0xccca37710bf61a1c9d248002e4a3bc8c1c7dd71be14fa6cc89b0a5bb532c2f4a", "usd": 4.8, "price": 0.229999965499998, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $28", "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 3?", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 03549af7..15481b8d 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,36 +1,6 @@
 {
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@@ -14205,11 +14209,20 @@
       "event": "lol-fnc-mkoi-2026-08-02",
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+      "cost": 10.176704599326413,
+      "title": "Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in August?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "event": "will-ng-dip-to-1-80-in-august-2026",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
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@@ -14527,6 +14541,11 @@
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@@ -21272,11 +21291,33 @@
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+      "title": "Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in August?",
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+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "cost_held": 56.09,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
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+      "sell_px": 0.001,
+      "shares_held": 97.11,
+      "cost_held": 56.16,
+      "title": "LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Movistar KOI",
+      "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "cost_held": 68.97,
+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
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+      "sell_px": 0.004,
+      "shares_held": 431.49,
+      "cost_held": 56.09,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
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+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.001,
+      "shares_held": 97.11,
+      "cost_held": 56.16,
+      "title": "LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Movistar KOI",
+      "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
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+      "shares_held": 210.4428,
+      "cost_held": 116.53,
+      "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
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+      "shares_held": 263.35,
+      "cost_held": 123.77,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
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+      "shares_held": 168.23,
+      "cost_held": 68.97,
+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
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+      "shares_held": 431.49,
+      "cost_held": 56.09,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
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+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.001,
+      "shares_held": 97.11,
+      "cost_held": 56.16,
+      "title": "LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Movistar KOI",
+      "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
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+      "shares_held": 210.4428,
+      "cost_held": 116.53,
+      "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
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+      "sell_px": 0.002,
+      "shares_held": 263.35,
+      "cost_held": 123.77,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785707921.4,
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+      "shares_held": 168.23,
+      "cost_held": 68.97,
+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
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+      "token": "69096949813045225336683960679829035937696902053122957721872788215708031375062",
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+      "sell_px": 0.003,
+      "shares_held": 431.49,
+      "cost_held": 56.09,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785707923.8,
+      "token": "36288736401955665119786973077283875206752336249826000621290926077161772340777",
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+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.001,
+      "shares_held": 97.11,
+      "cost_held": 56.16,
+      "title": "LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner",
+      "outcome": "Movistar KOI",
+      "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 93fe5ef9..f1f35a58 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 56.19,
+ "stake": 56.25,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 3600.19,
- "cash": 1319.64,
- "deployed": 1490.1,
+ "cash": 1312.3,
+ "deployed": 1500.27,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 1809.71,
+ "realized": 1812.55,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
- "ledger_drift": -0.02,
- "open_count": 27,
- "fees_paid": 452.15,
+ "ledger_drift": -0.03,
+ "open_count": 28,
+ "fees_paid": 452.34,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 377,
-  "n24": 17,
+  "n": 378,
+  "n24": 18,
   "basis": "24h",
-  "avg_s": 4.4,
+  "avg_s": 3.1,
   "avg_slip_pct": 0.0,
   "window_h": 24
  },
@@ -50,6 +50,28 @@
   "JuiceFarm": 735.0
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "31992191456114199144963723550413010500964262070722647318272730091545468567522",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in August?",
+   "their_price": 0.581,
+   "my_price": 0.581,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 1.2,
+   "shares": 24.91,
+   "cost": 14.47,
+   "fee": 0.18,
+   "opened": 1785708008,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "end_ts": 1788220800,
+   "sold_shares": 7.39,
+   "sold_proceeds": 7.32
+  },
   {
    "token": "25666257384729943287558818626325079689158559409645151459011325464093864355481",
    "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
@@ -2136,26 +2158,6 @@
    "pnl": -88.57,
    "settled": 1785011468,
    "end_ts": 1785542400
-  },
-  {
-   "token": "107156085038944146438947590438365026964800691960988984359921209164919978522933",
-   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-   "name": "JuiceFarm",
-   "outcome": "Top Esports",
-   "title": "LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend",
-   "their_price": 0.81,
-   "my_price": 0.81,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
-   "lag_s": 7.1,
-   "shares": 150.76,
-   "cost": 122.12,
-   "fee": 0.7,
-   "opened": 1784979741,
-   "status": "won",
-   "exit_price": 1.0,
-   "pnl": 27.94,
-   "settled": 1785005780,
-   "end_ts": 1784937600
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  ],
  "missed": [
@@ -3105,23 +3107,23 @@
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 21628.51,
  "last_fill": {
-  "ts": 1785704178,
+  "ts": 1785708090,
   "side": "SELL",
-  "price": 1.0,
-  "shares": 114.62,
-  "title": "LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner",
-  "outcome": "LYON"
+  "price": 0.99,
+  "shares": 3.48,
+  "title": "Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in August?",
+  "outcome": "No"
  },
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
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    "n": 94,
    "wins": 34,
-   "open_cost": 714.57,
-   "open_n": 13,
+   "open_cost": 729.04,
+   "open_n": 14,
    "miss_n": 124,
    "miss_pnl": 112338.67,
-   "last_ts": 1785681356
+   "last_ts": 1785708008
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   "gkmgkldfmg": {
    "realized": 948.45,
@@ -3214,5 +3216,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785706233
+ "updated": 1785708097
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index c49a7011..225895fc 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785706233,
+ "updated": 1785708097,
  "wallet_pnl": {
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    "n": 94,
    "wins": 34,
-   "open_cost": 714.57,
-   "open_n": 13,
+   "open_cost": 729.04,
+   "open_n": 14,
    "miss_n": 124,
    "miss_pnl": 112338.67,
-   "last_ts": 1785681356
+   "last_ts": 1785708008
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   "gkmgkldfmg": {
    "realized": 948.45,
@@ -104,6 +104,28 @@
   }
  },
  "bets": [
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+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in August?",
+   "their_price": 0.581,
+   "my_price": 0.581,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 1.2,
+   "shares": 24.91,
+   "cost": 14.47,
+   "fee": 0.1819,
+   "opened": 1785708008,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "end_ts": 1788220800,
+   "sold_shares": 7.39415728598579,
+   "sold_proceeds": 7.318019648411993
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   {
    "token": "25666257384729943287558818626325079689158559409645151459011325464093864355481",
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diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index aaf6a821..14efd82e 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2051,3 +2051,41 @@
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 {"ts": 1785706077.45, "trade_ts": 1785706077, "lat_s": 0.45, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "SELL", "size": 14.78, "price": 0.57, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?", "tx": "0x55073916c994d6cf84bc40ba532593303e26b57cf26b702ff3b64a862317d927", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1785706222.53, "trade_ts": 1785706222, "lat_s": 0.53, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "SELL", "size": 5, "price": 0.61, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?", "tx": "0x9c4e01aa0aab2f9347c2124382da681691684e1a2392429e25c3255e03dc1bd9", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785706832.97, "trade_ts": 1785706832, "lat_s": 0.97, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "side": "BUY", "size": 210.307958, "price": 0.4754931765349555, "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET", "tx": "0x638d2b84b30b94a54e5e2bba821cba4e3e37fc4b248c313fc0ac9ea3a87f0117", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785706833.2, "trade_ts": 1785706832, "lat_s": 1.2, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "side": "BUY", "size": 225.082607, "price": 0.4442813255668396, "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET", "tx": "0x68b4bf90393aacb2fcdc2c76c03e3950449a329df9f663c284adfab17e244009", "seen": false}
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