diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl
index fc19c9ba..9901b982 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl
@@ -1328,3 +1328,4 @@
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 {"ts": 1786043159.4, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "106384382902272259275653733417531627173944931937610707897597239994735553962869", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "No", "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 1.4, "their_price": 0.43, "my_price": 0.43, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 112.61, "cost": 48.42, "fee": 0.828, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.4, "ba": 0.47, "spread": 0.07, "bid5c": 74.32, "ask5c": 608.96}, "maker": true}
 {"ts": 1786061713.2, "side": "SELL", "token": "87970647543236439083440944769400298504759134074324143770349947929248763079016", "shares": 62.56, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0186, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786064362.6, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "6333843735155285450143276508143481064003286679791924447055152610295680774877", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August", "detect_lag_s": 8.6, "their_price": 0.65, "my_price": 0.65, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 74.85, "cost": 48.65, "fee": 0.5109, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.61, "ba": 0.68, "spread": 0.07, "bid5c": 151.17, "ask5c": 621.7}, "maker": true}
diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 9ddb06e8..e6da8aa7 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -9413,3 +9413,11 @@
 {"ts": 1786063437.7, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.1, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786063440.4, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.152, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786063441.9, "token": "60736604095974956194543682313156464544142668961532964567135396949190081432607", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.86, "shares_held": 64.11, "cost_held": 48.43, "title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786063774.7, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.28, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1786063778.1, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.149, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786063779.3, "token": "60736604095974956194543682313156464544142668961532964567135396949190081432607", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.86, "shares_held": 64.11, "cost_held": 48.43, "title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786064120.8, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.28, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786064122.2, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.1, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786064124.7, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.154, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786064126.1, "token": "60736604095974956194543682313156464544142668961532964567135396949190081432607", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.86, "shares_held": 64.11, "cost_held": 48.43, "title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index f7bd854b..01ba85c3 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -2742,3 +2742,15 @@
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 {"ts": 1786063484.2, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "53812289218965842163370625485093046804125242126283385267078097747938545122586", "cond": "0x81c49fcaac8e32fd0fc87e108f89493cbb961d3c0fdd872fed515d0693f5322a", "usd": 19.17, "price": 0.45, "reason": "$19 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786063563.4, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "53812289218965842163370625485093046804125242126283385267078097747938545122586", "cond": "0x81c49fcaac8e32fd0fc87e108f89493cbb961d3c0fdd872fed515d0693f5322a", "usd": 11.16, "price": 0.36, "reason": "$11 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1786064064.1, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "107481751529000652632642500697685341090247690247532338365526989797930798361517", "cond": "0x6910696b4e24fd704827b873961e35d5f137c318b040c2b65f07b046db7b4c40", "usd": 204.21, "price": 0.6992308453363557, "reason": "$204 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8PM ET", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 10f62d63..72ac4100 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 {
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@@ -5000,7 +4999,8 @@
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@@ -10260,7 +10260,8 @@
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@@ -14457,11 +14458,20 @@
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       "cond": "0xa055e1cf533c2fcb1f1c89c20c41c8aa25526dcf27c3ff6be69c230fd8898282"
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+      "title": "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "event": "will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-the-odyssey-be-between-530m-and-550m-by-august-31-20260724150841340",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
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@@ -14698,15 +14708,16 @@
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@@ -14727,6 +14738,11 @@
       1786043159.4,
       1.4,
       0.0
+    ],
+    [
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   "bets": {
@@ -22030,11 +22046,30 @@
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null,
       "end_ts": 1786752000
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+    "6333843735155285450143276508143481064003286679791924447055152610295680774877": {
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+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "title": "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?",
+      "their_price": 0.65,
+      "my_price": 0.65,
+      "slippage_pct": 0.0,
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@@ -25208,7 +25243,8 @@
       "reason": "maker bid unfilled (119s)",
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@@ -25424,8 +25460,8 @@
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@@ -25433,139 +25469,19 @@
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-    "side": "SELL",
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@@ -28445,6 +28361,126 @@
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?",
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+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
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 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 28c09b23..666d4b0d 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
 {
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  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 48.66,
+ "stake": 48.65,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 3600.19,
- "cash": 767.52,
- "deployed": 1665.43,
+ "cash": 718.36,
+ "deployed": 1714.08,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 1432.92,
+ "realized": 1432.41,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
  "ledger_drift": -0.02,
- "open_count": 32,
- "fees_paid": 464.44,
+ "open_count": 33,
+ "fees_paid": 464.96,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
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-  "n24": 4,
+  "n": 407,
+  "n24": 5,
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   "window_h": 24
  },
@@ -50,6 +50,26 @@
   "JuiceFarm": 735.0
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "6333843735155285450143276508143481064003286679791924447055152610295680774877",
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?",
+   "their_price": 0.65,
+   "my_price": 0.65,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 8.6,
+   "shares": 74.85,
+   "cost": 48.65,
+   "fee": 0.51,
+   "opened": 1786064354,
+   "status": "open",
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+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "end_ts": 1788134400
+  },
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@@ -2115,28 +2135,6 @@
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-   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-   "outcome": "Bilibili Gaming",
-   "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend",
-   "their_price": 0.73,
-   "my_price": 0.73,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
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-   "cost": 143.96,
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-   "opened": 1785331871,
-   "status": "closed",
-   "exit_price": 0.9033,
-   "pnl": 33.01,
-   "settled": 1785332913,
-   "end_ts": 1785283200,
-   "sold_shares": 197.2,
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@@ -3088,11 +3086,11 @@
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-  "ts": 1786061713,
-  "side": "SELL",
-  "price": 0.99,
-  "shares": 62.56,
-  "title": "Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?",
+  "ts": 1786064362,
+  "side": "BUY",
+  "price": 0.65,
+  "shares": 74.85,
+  "title": "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530",
   "outcome": "No"
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  "wallet_pnl": {
@@ -3160,11 +3158,11 @@
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    "n": 22,
    "wins": 3,
-   "open_cost": 1161.77,
-   "open_n": 18,
+   "open_cost": 1210.42,
+   "open_n": 19,
    "miss_n": 51,
    "miss_pnl": -572.61,
-   "last_ts": 1786061713
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   "JuiceFarm": {
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@@ -3197,5 +3195,5 @@
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- "updated": 1786063569
+ "updated": 1786064396
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index 4b689be9..740777b3 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
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+ "updated": 1786064396,
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@@ -66,11 +66,11 @@
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    "wins": 3,
-   "open_cost": 1161.77,
-   "open_n": 18,
+   "open_cost": 1210.42,
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    "miss_n": 51,
    "miss_pnl": -572.61,
-   "last_ts": 1786061713
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   "JuiceFarm": {
    "realized": -217.7,
@@ -104,6 +104,26 @@
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  "bets": [
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+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?",
+   "their_price": 0.65,
+   "my_price": 0.65,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
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+   "shares": 74.85,
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+   "settled": null,
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diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index 35c22724..7fa53a82 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2378,3 +2378,15 @@
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