From 6892aa5b1e78db4437ea21b69a3739d8bfa1187e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:19:03 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 346 +++---- live/copybot.paper.json | 6 +- live/dashboard.html | 10 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1718 +++++++++++++++++----------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 502 +++++----- 6 files changed, 1286 insertions(+), 1298 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index f2515af8..7e64af85 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.98, + "z_all": 20.95, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, @@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ "med_stake": 474, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 322, - "fwd_win": 99.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.069, - "fwd_n": 226 + "fwd_win": 99.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.057, + "fwd_n": 245 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -93,9 +93,9 @@ "med_stake": 2350, "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 99.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.182, - "fwd_n": 97 + "fwd_win": 99.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.165, + "fwd_n": 113 }, { "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", @@ -135,9 +135,9 @@ "med_stake": 308, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 75.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.844, - "fwd_n": 66 + "fwd_win": 76.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.839, + "fwd_n": 67 }, { "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", @@ -149,9 +149,9 @@ "med_stake": 80, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 183, - "fwd_win": 92.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.755, - "fwd_n": 64 + "fwd_win": 92.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.775, + "fwd_n": 67 }, { "wallet": "0xd7664fe4744856866d3ee36b84ec6e77a7025eb1", @@ -237,20 +237,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.06, "fwd_n": 12 }, - { - "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", - "name": "0x8e9eedf2", - "train_win": 70.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.534, - "train_z": 5.08, - "z_all": 13.36, - "med_stake": 3495, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 350, - "fwd_win": 81.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.071, - "fwd_n": 120 - }, { "wallet": "0x4a9a12ab62660a22b84cb36d1610f4d09abb8297", "name": "0x4a9a12ab", @@ -282,16 +268,30 @@ { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", - "train_win": 76.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.455, - "train_z": 3.54, - "z_all": 4.51, + "train_win": 76.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.45, + "train_z": 3.55, + "z_all": 4.53, "med_stake": 68, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 81, - "fwd_win": 78.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.101, - "fwd_n": 253 + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 82, + "fwd_win": 77.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.085, + "fwd_n": 275 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", + "name": "0x8e9eedf2", + "train_win": 70.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.437, + "train_z": 4.99, + "z_all": 13.36, + "med_stake": 3505, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 350, + "fwd_win": 81.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.071, + "fwd_n": 120 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -331,9 +331,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 62.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.17, - "fwd_n": 227 + "fwd_win": 62.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.172, + "fwd_n": 228 }, { "wallet": "0xbf1040ad7009ed6532f885c2043630d1cedf15ce", @@ -353,15 +353,15 @@ "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.38, - "train_z": 8.0, - "z_all": 14.53, + "train_conv_roi": 0.378, + "train_z": 7.97, + "z_all": 14.58, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, - "fwd_win": 59.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.079, - "fwd_n": 140 + "fwd_win": 52.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.26, + "fwd_n": 211 }, { "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", @@ -387,9 +387,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 69.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.198, - "fwd_n": 252 + "fwd_win": 69.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.19, + "fwd_n": 256 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -401,9 +401,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 61.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.129, - "fwd_n": 235 + "fwd_win": 61.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.128, + "fwd_n": 240 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -419,27 +419,13 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.007, "fwd_n": 54 }, - { - "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", - "name": "0xf6099a9e", - "train_win": 83.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.31, - "train_z": 4.2, - "z_all": 4.04, - "med_stake": 59, - "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 85, - "fwd_win": 76.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 330 - }, { "wallet": "0xc904211fd4412d5caa0b51f923304bf5e1821e9a", "name": "0xc904211f", "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.08, + "z_all": 4.07, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -457,9 +443,9 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 58.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.055, - "fwd_n": 106 + "fwd_win": 60.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.063, + "fwd_n": 115 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -471,9 +457,23 @@ "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 56.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.322, - "fwd_n": 284 + "fwd_win": 56.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.321, + "fwd_n": 285 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", + "name": "0xf6099a9e", + "train_win": 83.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.299, + "train_z": 4.09, + "z_all": 3.99, + "med_stake": 60, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 84, + "fwd_win": 76.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.138, + "fwd_n": 336 }, { "wallet": "0x0bd753cbeb82b4dc735fdd84955f99fbaf258553", @@ -485,9 +485,9 @@ "med_stake": 117, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 71, - "fwd_win": 60.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.104, - "fwd_n": 46 + "fwd_win": 58.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.058, + "fwd_n": 48 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -576,13 +576,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.24, + "train_win": 81.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.23, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 4.01, + "z_all": 3.98, "med_stake": 231, - "avg_entry": 0.69, - "train_n": 110, + "avg_entry": 0.68, + "train_n": 112, "fwd_win": 73.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, "fwd_n": 52 @@ -611,9 +611,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.319, - "fwd_n": 201 + "fwd_win": 66.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.303, + "fwd_n": 215 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -696,8 +696,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, "fwd_win": 87.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.14, - "fwd_n": 323 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.135, + "fwd_n": 340 }, { "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", @@ -723,9 +723,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 234, - "fwd_win": 75.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.054, - "fwd_n": 474 + "fwd_win": 74.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.048, + "fwd_n": 485 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -765,9 +765,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 72.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.234, - "fwd_n": 233 + "fwd_win": 71.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.223, + "fwd_n": 249 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -793,9 +793,9 @@ "med_stake": 1019, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 74.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.044, - "fwd_n": 204 + "fwd_win": 74.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.041, + "fwd_n": 206 }, { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", @@ -803,13 +803,13 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.171, "train_z": 3.82, - "z_all": 4.1, + "z_all": 4.22, "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, - "fwd_win": 71.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.032, - "fwd_n": 66 + "fwd_win": 69.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.043, + "fwd_n": 96 }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", @@ -842,13 +842,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xfdb826a0fb4a90b4cc9049e408ea3ef1b73ae4c9", "name": "0xfdb826a0", - "train_win": 68.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.164, - "train_z": 4.95, + "train_win": 67.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.162, + "train_z": 4.91, "z_all": 4.56, "med_stake": 133, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 444, + "train_n": 443, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -905,9 +905,9 @@ "med_stake": 4423, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 87, - "fwd_win": 82.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.025, - "fwd_n": 28 + "fwd_win": 80.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.015, + "fwd_n": 35 }, { "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448", @@ -919,34 +919,20 @@ "med_stake": 168, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 67.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.278, - "fwd_n": 128 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", - "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 66.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.143, - "train_z": 2.54, - "z_all": 2.84, - "med_stake": 772, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 124, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.255, + "fwd_n": 135 }, { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", "train_win": 67.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.143, - "train_z": 6.7, - "z_all": 2.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.142, + "train_z": 6.71, + "z_all": 2.37, "med_stake": 188, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 734, + "train_n": 733, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 @@ -997,15 +983,15 @@ "wallet": "0xa9aca75fb5d8f04c2ec9eeb0eb0c30d2e526c5d1", "name": "0xa9aca75f", "train_win": 65.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.127, - "train_z": 2.85, - "z_all": 2.69, - "med_stake": 1400, + "train_conv_roi": 0.125, + "train_z": 2.82, + "z_all": 2.7, + "med_stake": 1410, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 254, - "fwd_win": 63.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.287, - "fwd_n": 181 + "fwd_win": 62.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.291, + "fwd_n": 191 }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", @@ -1017,9 +1003,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 82.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.094, - "fwd_n": 191 + "fwd_win": 82.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.106, + "fwd_n": 210 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1035,6 +1021,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.036, "fwd_n": 135 }, + { + "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", + "name": "0x7ccec296", + "train_win": 66.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.12, + "train_z": 2.49, + "z_all": 2.77, + "med_stake": 772, + "avg_entry": 0.56, + "train_n": 123, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0xe74b89a7c41f37460a977a542488429bbe09ee88", "name": "0xe74b89a7", @@ -1097,7 +1097,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, "train_z": 2.41, - "z_all": 2.82, + "z_all": 2.86, "med_stake": 6664, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 226, @@ -1115,9 +1115,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 71.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.099, - "fwd_n": 158 + "fwd_win": 71.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, + "fwd_n": 160 }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", @@ -1129,9 +1129,9 @@ "med_stake": 226, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 361, - "fwd_win": 66.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, - "fwd_n": 263 + "fwd_win": 66.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.113, + "fwd_n": 271 }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", @@ -1185,9 +1185,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 56.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.044, - "fwd_n": 179 + "fwd_win": 56.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.051, + "fwd_n": 186 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1203,6 +1203,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07, "fwd_n": 46 }, + { + "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", + "name": "0x60a92c86", + "train_win": 77.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.098, + "train_z": 2.02, + "z_all": 2.0, + "med_stake": 5714, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 122, + "fwd_win": 70.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.001, + "fwd_n": 67 + }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1251,7 +1265,7 @@ "train_win": 69.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.088, "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 2.07, + "z_all": 2.06, "med_stake": 56, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 319, @@ -1269,9 +1283,9 @@ "med_stake": 622, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 180, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.03, - "fwd_n": 78 + "fwd_win": 67.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, + "fwd_n": 100 }, { "wallet": "0x87909a89ee551c8616e5bff9089c81545bfd010b", @@ -1332,31 +1346,17 @@ { "wallet": "0x809205fb1c91f746b9703ca412c4fdd0435db8a2", "name": "0x809205fb", - "train_win": 76.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.046, - "train_z": 1.93, - "z_all": 2.95, + "train_win": 76.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.045, + "train_z": 1.88, + "z_all": 2.94, "med_stake": 98, "avg_entry": 0.72, - "train_n": 265, + "train_n": 264, "fwd_win": 77.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082, "fwd_n": 27 }, - { - "wallet": "0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122", - "name": "0x011f2d37", - "train_win": 80.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.045, - "train_z": 2.78, - "z_all": 6.98, - "med_stake": 3561, - "avg_entry": 0.75, - "train_n": 265, - "fwd_win": 58.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.077, - "fwd_n": 104 - }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", "name": "0xa85ce607", @@ -1395,9 +1395,9 @@ "med_stake": 448, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 378, - "fwd_win": 71.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.093, - "fwd_n": 84 + "fwd_win": 71.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.073, + "fwd_n": 99 }, { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", @@ -1433,7 +1433,7 @@ "train_win": 75.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.016, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.2, + "z_all": 2.16, "med_stake": 3442, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 361, diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 02c18de9..ac1c82e4 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 37.05 + "floor": 35.78 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -26,13 +26,13 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 320.1 + "floor": 318.91 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", - "floor": 222.85 + "floor": 224.77 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index be1d39f4..a8624d6c 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

67 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-20 10:54

+

66 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-21 12:19

-
Validated wallets
67
-
Median z
4.2
+
Validated wallets
66
+
Median z
4.4
Median OOS z
3.1
-
Value / longshot
49
+
Value / longshot
47
Favorite-rider
9
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.