diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl
index 2bfb40ca..c0383d12 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl
@@ -1029,3 +1029,4 @@
 {"ts": 1785249409.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "115022349425230056420599576774053150964082288276346642481948600625364544056404", "shares": 154.51, "price": 1.0, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785252600.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 0.7, "their_price": 0.87, "my_price": 0.87, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 71.18, "cost": 61.93, "fee": 0.2415, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.84, "ba": 0.88, "spread": 0.04, "bid5c": 2834.7, "ask5c": 2735.31}, "maker": true}
 {"ts": 1785252609.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 1.9, "their_price": 0.86, "my_price": 0.86, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 67.88, "cost": 58.38, "fee": 0.2452, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.79, "ba": 0.84, "spread": 0.05, "bid5c": 2548.29, "ask5c": 2578.65}, "maker": true}
+{"ts": 1785252699.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?", "detect_lag_s": 1.6, "their_price": 0.86, "my_price": 0.86, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 13.26, "cost": 11.4, "fee": 0.0479, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.84, "ba": 0.86, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 3152.34, "ask5c": 2414.75}, "maker": true}
diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 45491f9f..ab1c5e2a 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -1487,3 +1487,6 @@
 {"ts": 1785252423.7, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785252426.0, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.2, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785252426.5, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.36, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785252770.7, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785252773.1, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.2, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785252773.4, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.36, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index 61ecc6ff..a2165163 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -556,3 +556,5 @@
 {"ts": 1785252572.9, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "34997289079329640787672930920362295013614055551345266461510362302157845091792", "cond": "0x08f75b0660bab9c83974a21d5dc71400b6fb3ab306a91e1ba5d3f0f1cde62594", "usd": 16.85, "price": 0.7, "reason": "$17 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: TLN Pirates vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785252600.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "10729113877982954627733259296519930255153096234865579997117363600105394623598", "cond": "0x31a3ddeea7de2cede5400708fa2916a3d9e14e57aef68737a358027a84f88943", "usd": 7.35, "price": 0.1099999880272106, "reason": "$7 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785252608.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "10729113877982954627733259296519930255153096234865579997117363600105394623598", "cond": "0x31a3ddeea7de2cede5400708fa2916a3d9e14e57aef68737a358027a84f88943", "usd": 7.96, "price": 0.1199999873366832, "reason": "$8 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785252699.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "10729113877982954627733259296519930255153096234865579997117363600105394623598", "cond": "0x31a3ddeea7de2cede5400708fa2916a3d9e14e57aef68737a358027a84f88943", "usd": 7.96, "price": 0.1199999873366832, "reason": "$8 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785252764.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "10729113877982954627733259296519930255153096234865579997117363600105394623598", "cond": "0x31a3ddeea7de2cede5400708fa2916a3d9e14e57aef68737a358027a84f88943", "usd": 6.74, "price": 0.1, "reason": "$7 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index b9bbe136..94878186 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783541947.246319,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0xc6857a4e3f6bd03cb7072868f55d3f79b86aa7bf195dea06b4f552b050ef0dc4",
-    "0xef307a753aa3dabae562c670610d85218e4c3ab3627e023ae4d37732a1e06fab",
     "0x01ab6806e4c2b7ec2b10241894b42f2ca15386c2c841bd36fa9607b8bdf4a26d",
     "0xc90a47e212fcc94685d451bc1c22358e45d2d3876e087ecc8d42b4078d0a15b8",
     "0x744f78a7b212ff57811db0d5b3ee45aee4f26192adad69a5ed60155419611038",
@@ -5000,7 +4998,9 @@
     "0x052c4a1187ad8eb0d6de132f24d8ae724c0bb7d917b51e1c76d6b2396978986b",
     "0x689591d64051cb36b15dd6c77604736885e29ca499c01b76ae0b2c757c6af236",
     "0x513680502760e055a6841af589ab526b26abc3e79b89555c08335d97a19f54eb",
-    "0x6f59af23a4c48baab1b54c929af266aeee00a72ae578cb38f3416c365246a53c"
+    "0x6f59af23a4c48baab1b54c929af266aeee00a72ae578cb38f3416c365246a53c",
+    "0xa4b334c52dfa264ac8e554539b7978a2e1e6b0efad2155abeeef1bdd235d4e1d",
+    "0x90a4210af8cef686ddc042aa9ac2f265ebfc24f560b8a51da9fc00d46d87a425"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -7696,7 +7696,7 @@
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-      "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448": 123.87288699999999,
+      "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448": 342.64115000000004,
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     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
@@ -13780,8 +13780,8 @@
       "cond": "0xa76a275f67052768be0d7ea46a8f181e8371c448bca393d6108c44fa40293c81"
     },
     "4725621767646797937918206024832177295593632589877868366197031747377041042448": {
-      "shares": 139.06,
-      "cost": 120.30339986314837,
+      "shares": 152.32,
+      "cost": 131.70699985886694,
       "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?",
       "outcome": "No",
       "event": "ethereum-price-on-july-28-2026",
@@ -13791,7 +13791,7 @@
   },
   "spend": {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
-    "usd": 476.80927014180907
+    "usd": 488.2128701375276
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   "seeded": [
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41",
@@ -13988,13 +13988,13 @@
     "115022349425230056420599576774053150964082288276346642481948600625364544056404": "0x1e7aa6955c8430e1506188bece94f7da20cdb0311535abeda8123be2c69b1f59",
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-  "cash": 1427.8940052124606,
+  "cash": 1416.4425100966496,
   "lag": {
-    "n": 288,
-    "sum_s": 6748.565694093704,
+    "n": 289,
+    "sum_s": 6750.129228591919,
     "sum_slip_pct": -7.247834511462669
   },
-  "fees_paid": 394.8467057553188,
+  "fees_paid": 394.8946008754113,
   "lag_recent": [
     [
       1785166439.4,
@@ -14040,6 +14040,11 @@
       1785252609.9,
       1.9,
       0.0
+    ],
+    [
+      1785252699.6,
+      1.6,
+      0.0
     ]
   ],
   "bets": {
@@ -19319,12 +19324,12 @@
       "outcome": "No",
       "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?",
       "their_price": 0.87,
-      "my_price": 0.8651431035386355,
+      "my_price": 0.8646953779792623,
       "slippage_pct": 0.0,
       "lag_s": 0.7,
-      "shares": 139.06,
-      "cost": 120.30679997808267,
-      "fee": 0.4867,
+      "shares": 152.32,
+      "cost": 131.71039997380123,
+      "fee": 0.5346,
       "opened": 1785252600,
       "status": "open",
       "exit_price": null,
@@ -19334,8 +19339,8 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3385.4117262488894,
-  "feed_sig": "24c1582451078f8a304a57931bcef6b5",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1785252563.2261992,
+  "feed_sig": "2bcb2aa317d2033699eaef5d18bfcdf2",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1785252697.082424,
   "missed": [
     {
       "ts": 1783685101,
@@ -22644,23 +22649,23 @@
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     "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173": 1,
-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 1036,
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-    "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228": 189,
+    "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228": 190,
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-    "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421": 156,
+    "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421": 157,
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   "trade_cursor": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785239347,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785252559,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785252700,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785248999,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1785074847,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785242708,
@@ -22672,64 +22677,19 @@
     "ts": 1785194148
   },
   "last_fill": {
-    "ts": 1785252609,
+    "ts": 1785252699,
     "side": "BUY",
     "price": 0.86,
-    "shares": 67.88,
+    "shares": 13.26,
     "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on J",
     "outcome": "No"
   },
   "paper_maker": [],
   "maker_stats": {
-    "fills": 55,
+    "fills": 56,
     "misses": 27
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
-    {
-      "ts": 1785227018.0,
-      "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.38,
-      "shares_held": 168.23,
-      "cost_held": 68.97,
-      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
-    {
-      "ts": 1785227351.7,
-      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.88,
-      "shares_held": 0.8746,
-      "cost_held": 0.61,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
-    {
-      "ts": 1785227353.6,
-      "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.31,
-      "shares_held": 37.5315,
-      "cost_held": 23.64,
-      "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1785227353.9,
       "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
@@ -25684,6 +25644,51 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785252770.7,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.88,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785252773.1,
+      "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.2,
+      "shares_held": 37.5315,
+      "cost_held": 23.64,
+      "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785252773.4,
+      "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.36,
+      "shares_held": 168.23,
+      "cost_held": 68.97,
+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index e1e08edb..0f4720f6 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -5,20 +5,20 @@
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 3385.41,
- "cash": 1427.89,
- "deployed": 1864.83,
+ "cash": 1416.44,
+ "deployed": 1876.23,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 2292.69,
+ "realized": 2292.65,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
  "ledger_drift": -0.04,
  "open_count": 28,
- "fees_paid": 394.85,
+ "fees_paid": 394.89,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 288,
+  "n": 289,
   "n24": 9,
   "basis": "24h",
-  "avg_s": 4.4,
+  "avg_s": 1.9,
   "avg_slip_pct": 0.0,
   "window_h": 24
  },
@@ -57,12 +57,12 @@
    "outcome": "No",
    "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?",
    "their_price": 0.87,
-   "my_price": 0.8651,
+   "my_price": 0.8647,
    "slippage_pct": 0.0,
    "lag_s": 0.7,
-   "shares": 139.06,
-   "cost": 120.31,
-   "fee": 0.49,
+   "shares": 152.32,
+   "cost": 131.71,
+   "fee": 0.53,
    "opened": 1785252600,
    "status": "open",
    "exit_price": null,
@@ -3099,10 +3099,10 @@
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 111223.37,
  "last_fill": {
-  "ts": 1785252609,
+  "ts": 1785252699,
   "side": "BUY",
   "price": 0.86,
-  "shares": 67.88,
+  "shares": 13.26,
   "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on J",
   "outcome": "No"
  },
@@ -3111,7 +3111,7 @@
    "realized": 555.08,
    "n": 66,
    "wins": 20,
-   "open_cost": 950.79,
+   "open_cost": 962.2,
    "open_n": 16,
    "miss_n": 86,
    "miss_pnl": 111947.91,
@@ -3208,5 +3208,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785252629
+ "updated": 1785252841
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index f3c70545..a266c4e9 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785252629,
+ "updated": 1785252841,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 555.08,
    "n": 66,
    "wins": 20,
-   "open_cost": 950.79,
+   "open_cost": 962.2,
    "open_n": 16,
    "miss_n": 86,
    "miss_pnl": 111947.91,
@@ -111,12 +111,12 @@
    "outcome": "No",
    "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?",
    "their_price": 0.87,
-   "my_price": 0.8651431035386355,
+   "my_price": 0.8646953779792623,
    "slippage_pct": 0.0,
    "lag_s": 0.7,
-   "shares": 139.06,
-   "cost": 120.30679997808267,
-   "fee": 0.4867,
+   "shares": 152.32,
+   "cost": 131.71039997380123,
+   "fee": 0.5346,
    "opened": 1785252600,
    "status": "open",
    "exit_price": null,
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index a378b75c..81f04bb5 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2373,3 +2373,7 @@
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 {"ts": 1785252608.48, "trade_ts": 1785252608, "lat_s": 0.48, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 66.333332, "price": 0.1199999873366832, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?", "tx": "0xe79e58a14d026f6d2e3ffb9f67e04947097f7a62b7e1acdd8d4a64bb2e0b399b", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1785252609.0, "trade_ts": 1785252608, "lat_s": 1.0, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 61.941857, "price": 0.8599999996771166, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on J", "tx": "0x6f59af23a4c48baab1b54c929af266aeee00a72ae578cb38f3416c365246a53c", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1785252698.97, "trade_ts": 1785252698, "lat_s": 0.96, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 61.941857, "price": 0.8599999996771166, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on J", "tx": "0xa4b334c52dfa264ac8e554539b7978a2e1e6b0efad2155abeeef1bdd235d4e1d", "seen": false}
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+{"ts": 1785252762.95, "trade_ts": 1785252762, "lat_s": 0.95, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 61.92045, "price": 0.88, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on J", "tx": "0x90a4210af8cef686ddc042aa9ac2f265ebfc24f560b8a51da9fc00d46d87a425", "seen": false}
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