From 58a21f8bbbd1097aea7b9f6408fd6b8118baddc8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "copybot[bot]" Date: Sun, 2 Aug 2026 01:09:28 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] copybot: live paper feed [skip ci] --- copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl | 7 + copybot_missed_archive.jsonl | 1 + copybot_rejects.jsonl | 8 + copybot_state.json | 273 +++++++++++++++++------------------ live/copybot_live.json | 36 ++--- live/copybot_live_full.json | 19 ++- rtds_shadow.jsonl | 7 + 7 files changed, 194 insertions(+), 157 deletions(-) diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl index ec65969e..a2c9c563 100644 --- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl +++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl @@ -4743,3 +4743,10 @@ {"ts": 1785631972.5, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.004, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"} {"ts": 1785631973.0, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.23, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"} {"ts": 1785632144.2, "token": "42904109279829735534970379368330412783573788683856067315929342371394889824245", "their_size": 1034.7, "their_prev": 715.16, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.23, "shares_held": 122.61, "cost_held": 56.06, "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632296.7, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.003, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632297.4, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.22, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632299.4, "token": "42904109279829735534970379368330412783573788683856067315929342371394889824245", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.74, "shares_held": 122.61, "cost_held": 56.06, "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632633.2, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.003, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632633.8, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.22, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632956.5, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.003, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632957.1, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"} diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl index a733fbee..47f6f760 100644 --- a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl +++ b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl @@ -82,3 +82,4 @@ {"ts": 1783939208, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "72663413633237870742152602912076949024714881200491601361514812636170232854563", "cond": "0xd50d0276f9b6c57d7a1b23be8be23a8dcdffed0aebae867de372b26593a9a238", "title": "Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.898, "stake": 46.28, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 3.67, "settled": 1784386017, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.9728} {"ts": 1783942543, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "25252139719387305389090759227041579550456702736511482208905350724277919018200", "cond": "0x1121a02fc780ddeb79cf91cdf2fea0a7dc2a8eb91a8643e86a4a415ab519ab90", "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.28, "stake": 91.41, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.16 > 0.08)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 240.02, "settled": 1784772296, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 1.0206} {"ts": 1783965172, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "token": "68863380862470769473817017624526026576800718695897153538391077057952557372819", "cond": "0x67d054d9a655ca606802150b8850a07e611c10364de253187869e9d2d0cdfadc", "title": "Set Handicap: Giese/Rafiq (-1.5) vs Ayeni/Chopra (+1.5)", "outcome": "Ayeni/Chopra", "price": 0.7, "stake": 93.91, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.29 > 0.08)", "status": "refund", "pnl": -27.68, "settled": 1783997372, "name": "Kruto2027", "exit_checked": true} +{"ts": 1783973850, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "113811126480011515107509517146411015240698493006125965388028738076036215548925", "cond": "0x7b815d5ee7f26512f22e42943519b051ce430586fd88fd0acb167ab2252a688b", "title": "Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.7575, "stake": 56.21, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 14.09, "settled": 1784315257, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 0.9542} diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl index 0cab5cdc..d8b07a1a 100644 --- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl +++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl @@ -1823,3 +1823,11 @@ {"ts": 1785632071.9, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "78202516409393826949699953061717228995014400974665294987882532461953325769497", "cond": "0x2303c4d47297a803505ba1bfd62afe674ac750203761ce2b1aeb4b58a2295b2b", "usd": 25.0, "price": 0.1207173170055655, "reason": "$25 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET", "mode": "paper"} {"ts": 1785632072.1, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "78202516409393826949699953061717228995014400974665294987882532461953325769497", "cond": "0x2303c4d47297a803505ba1bfd62afe674ac750203761ce2b1aeb4b58a2295b2b", "usd": 25.0, "price": 0.1302088136953677, "reason": "$25 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET", "mode": "paper"} {"ts": 1785632076.5, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "42904109279829735534970379368330412783573788683856067315929342371394889824245", "cond": "0x198ca25933e947661bbb8ba8c502d4a68355b91e0331708f2539dcb3cb30b503", "usd": 144.6, "price": 0.452528634912687, "reason": "$145 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632360.6, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "42904109279829735534970379368330412783573788683856067315929342371394889824245", "cond": "0x198ca25933e947661bbb8ba8c502d4a68355b91e0331708f2539dcb3cb30b503", "usd": 188.12, "price": 0.7168069498069498, "reason": "$188 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632398.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "105972107131291331186275784762591329688097462133039807097147485632595047463695", "cond": "0x393d5b30b8508af6bc3e830443820aa0d70910fd1efa49d270d7999d12fa2300", "usd": 3.32, "price": 0.16, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Bloomberg IPO by September 30, 2027?", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632398.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "13749211418395383044925294637492565092216182224239150424748653755487675867647", "cond": "0x36b6f0037d60b5a5be6cdcb5a6ccbcf8dbaf9d533fbb8f807550bcdf93f8a006", "usd": 15.72, "price": 0.78, "reason": "$16 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Bloomberg IPO by June 30, 2027?", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632631.1, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "100624493784742066196172882799389607658238738180944134780099178110174173337292", "cond": "0x9046deabbb7238f459ebd73a7c09ae384e28846cb21d92988cea3fc076986e24", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.844888424876152, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - 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August 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET", "mode": "paper"} +{"ts": 1785632845.6, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "100624493784742066196172882799389607658238738180944134780099178110174173337292", "cond": "0x9046deabbb7238f459ebd73a7c09ae384e28846cb21d92988cea3fc076986e24", "usd": 223.62, "price": 0.97, "reason": "$224 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET", "mode": "paper"} diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json index 323b7cfe..e2569876 100644 --- a/copybot_state.json +++ b/copybot_state.json @@ -1,11 +1,6 @@ { "started_at": 1783541947.246319, "seen_tx": [ - "0x7f51a85cb0eb362f1b0866429f305da881698dd6d7be3d7d8540d8a9d382f4cf", - "0x06e235a2f0e4658470a04cfa8c52a4e0c0737d3f01292299b7597b1972ff9288", - "0xba7c72e05aadfc0cabb1c30bf8060138969199e8134ed4661b9372ad65b7b538", - "0x3679715bf66f7f4a72d5b5d5d2f5ebdad1117a9d9235ffad8f3b105fda0ead8c", - "0x65569539a3d084bb7b96e6b8e9b81dc26e637af9ecd8665f9b189025d1657b87", "0x41c99730a7326f124b2832c6ce43dc8c0f3a3c0ae80c858e3d543190774d31de", "0x24a4040c8c4ae51fac2d52864e1b60cccc81e42bdedef22e14ca6805a2aaa0ca", "0xc8f6cd824b0958e4fd6d78d6b09aedb2b10bc31c23cc25ff8d4244639d5834f4", @@ -5000,7 +4995,12 @@ "0x8a6f0e5604186de60337f6731677a1fa8e27db01eb0d6b579c7b8bc60fe8064c", "0xa18d3d669b5ab00640060fccc343bb37d42a9c68092a5b75811683c6515c4df3", "0x675f423a3667c8f10734f1b1a242567207d07d3d084f9b2bd7dfe7cc04f942be", - "0xb473031fc5d010864f3409422f1d44cf81d803a6e02ab40a6dd2c12e26cd737f" + "0xb473031fc5d010864f3409422f1d44cf81d803a6e02ab40a6dd2c12e26cd737f", + "0x3fae38d928589e0a5fc2e10ace266e5dd1dcee16d5e9a3ae3bcabe36f5e8a75d", + "0x62316a176e6b54e4f4ccb5f6d27b43e92cbb05d7af0c8018a71b3ef5007a839c", + "0x45ce8663e78fae084c5ca555b3a7b5e6b80e2b1664f2115ba6a018c01e60a471", + "0x80e1cf1627bc6a3762521d0967985790798dd0424e213c625326eeef78f26f4f", + "0x1b3f56fa68cb7d112843db1c62a9c354ecb7ff86e22c0a98bf9ce204d6569fc2" ], "their_pos": { "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": { @@ -8968,7 +8968,7 @@ "6088828954428260141431726564699331558779434506716228027482297699742970215772": 0.0, "113608775782891637186089035255619204343670642993663345397358112933840658683622": 0.0, "91413467745007751223806228794568206157219428690261586369892499576836063855413": 0.0, - "42904109279829735534970379368330412783573788683856067315929342371394889824245": 0.0, + "42904109279829735534970379368330412783573788683856067315929342371394889824245": 259, "78202516409393826949699953061717228995014400974665294987882532461953325769497": 0.0 }, "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": { @@ -9974,7 +9974,7 @@ "19481059675849073197346646944327368414853269458422440354312650320744503267393": 0.0, "48450423362097068390752266425061029678470529089502364298292157548990727173078": 0.0, "39652532623602170846456682951463932352134896182641898905432425437612057868317": 991.74, - 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