band-guarded mirror exits (#21 successor): mirror sells >=90c only, sub-band sells ignored+ledgered; sell-band study slice; backtest parity

Sell-band evidence: every band <90c LOSES by mirroring (<30c +$79/sell
given up, 50-70c +$7.29); >=90c SAVES (-$0.85/sell, n=68).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

config.live.example.json

@@ -1,89 +1,96 @@
 {
-  "mode": "live",
+ "mode": "live",
-  "_comment": "Live-test config, SECRET-FREE and committed. The Fly live worker (wwf-copybot-live, COPYBOT_ROLE=live) reads THIS file and takes secrets from env (LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY/LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS + LIVE_CONFIRM to arm). Mac use: cp -> config.live.json and fill live.*. RULES: bankroll_usd MUST equal actual equity at rebase time (the 1.4 cash-anchor checks state cash vs chain). 2026-07-10 USER decision: hard caps retired \u2014 sizing is paper-parity 4%-of-equity (floored at the venue $1 min order); follow set mirrors copybot.paper.json (Set E) so paper and live books stay comparable.",
+ "_comment": "Live-test config, SECRET-FREE and committed. The Fly live worker (wwf-copybot-live, COPYBOT_ROLE=live) reads THIS file and takes secrets from env (LIVE_PRIVATE_KEY/LIVE_FUNDER_ADDRESS + LIVE_CONFIRM to arm). Mac use: cp -> config.live.json and fill live.*. RULES: bankroll_usd MUST equal actual equity at rebase time (the 1.4 cash-anchor checks state cash vs chain). 2026-07-10 USER decision: hard caps retired \u2014 sizing is paper-parity 4%-of-equity (floored at the venue $1 min order); follow set mirrors copybot.paper.json (Set E) so paper and live books stay comparable.",
-  "bankroll_usd": 66.42,
+ "bankroll_usd": 66.42,
-  "bankroll_pct": 0.04,
+ "bankroll_pct": 0.04,
-  "price_guard_abs": 0.05,
+ "price_guard_abs": 0.05,
-  "fak_retry_s": 10,
+ "fak_retry_s": 10,
-  "fak_retry_niche_s": {"crypto": 4, "esports": 10, "sports": 25,
+ "fak_retry_niche_s": {
-                        "geo": 25, "politics": 25, "other": 25},
+  "crypto": 4,
-  "taker_fee_rate": 0.03,
+  "esports": 10,
-  "discord_webhook": "",
+  "sports": 25,
-  "follow": {
+  "geo": 25,
-    "buy_only": true,
+  "politics": 25,
-    "entry_mode": "maker",
+  "other": 25
-    "exit_mode": "hold",
+ },
-    "min_their_usd": 25.0,
+ "taker_fee_rate": 0.03,
-    "min_entry": 0.0,
+ "discord_webhook": "",
-    "max_entry": 0.95,
+ "follow": {
-    "class_pct": {
+  "buy_only": true,
-      "volume": 0.04,
+  "entry_mode": "maker",
-      "whale": 0.12
+  "exit_mode": "mirror",
-    }
+  "min_their_usd": 25.0,
+  "min_entry": 0.0,
+  "max_entry": 0.95,
+  "class_pct": {
+   "volume": 0.04,
+   "whale": 0.12
   },
-  "risk": {
+  "mirror_sell_min_p": 0.9
-    "max_trade_usd": 1000000.0,
+ },
-    "max_position_usd": 1000000.0,
+ "risk": {
-    "daily_spend_cap_usd": 1000000.0,
+  "max_trade_usd": 1000000.0,
-    "max_total_exposure_usd": 1000000.0,
+  "max_position_usd": 1000000.0,
-    "max_open_positions": 1000,
+  "daily_spend_cap_usd": 1000000.0,
-    "max_per_event": 0,
+  "max_total_exposure_usd": 1000000.0,
-    "min_price": 0.0,
+  "max_open_positions": 1000,
-    "max_price": 0.99,
+  "max_per_event": 0,
-    "min_order_usd": 1.0
+  "min_price": 0.0,
+  "max_price": 0.99,
+  "min_order_usd": 1.0
+ },
+ "live": {
+  "private_key": "",
+  "funder_address": "",
+  "signature_type": 1,
+  "order_type": "FAK",
+  "auto_redeem": false,
+  "rpc_url": ""
+ },
+ "wallets": [
+  {
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 80.0
   },
-  "live": {
+  {
-    "private_key": "",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-    "funder_address": "",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-    "signature_type": 1,
+   "class": "volume",
-    "order_type": "FAK",
+   "floor": 41.21
-    "auto_redeem": false,
-    "rpc_url": ""
   },
-  "wallets": [
+  {
-    {
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-      "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-      "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "class": "volume",
-      "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 470.51
-      "floor": 80.0
+  },
-    },
+  {
-    {
+   "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "1kto1m",
-      "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "class": "volume",
-      "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 328.77
-      "floor": 41.21
+  },
-    },
+  {
-    {
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
-      "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "class": "volume",
-      "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 227.2
-      "floor": 470.51
+  },
-    },
+  {
-    {
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
-      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
-      "name": "1kto1m",
+   "class": "volume",
-      "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 341.23
-      "floor": 328.77
+  },
-    },
+  {
-    {
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
-      "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "class": "volume"
-      "class": "volume",
+  }
-      "floor": 227.2
+ ],
-    },
+ "feed_path": "live/copybot_live_real.json",
-    {
+ "fill_log": "copybot_fills.live.jsonl",
-      "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+ "shadow_log": "rtds_shadow.live.jsonl"
-      "name": "AIcAIc",
-      "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 341.23
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-      "name": "JuiceFarm",
-      "class": "volume"
-    }
-  ],
-  "feed_path": "live/copybot_live_real.json",
-  "fill_log": "copybot_fills.live.jsonl",
-  "shadow_log": "rtds_shadow.live.jsonl"
 }

copytrade.py

@@ -732,6 +732,29 @@ class CopyTrader:
         price = self._live_price(token, "sell")
         if price is None:
             return
+        # band-guarded mirroring (2026-07-23, #21 successor): the sell-band
+        # study (research/sell_mirror_study.py) showed mirrored exits LOSE
+        # in every band below 90c (exits gave up value; <30c +$79/sell left
+        # on the table) and SAVE money at >=90c (near-resolution
+        # profit-taking, n=68 -$0.85/sell). Sells below the floor are
+        # ignored-and-ledgered exactly like hold mode, so the
+        # counterfactual stream keeps accruing.
+        min_p = (self.cfg.get("follow") or {}).get("mirror_sell_min_p", 0.0)
+        if price < min_p:
+            self.log(f"EXIT {label} — BAND-SKIP (sell {price:.2f} < "
+                     f"{min_p:.2f} floor, their frac {frac:.2f})")
+            if self.on_ignored_exit:
+                self.on_ignored_exit({
+                    "ts": round(time.time(), 1), "token": str(token),
+                    "their_size": their_size, "their_prev": their_prev,
+                    "frac": round(frac, 4), "reason": "band",
+                    "sell_px": round(price, 4),
+                    "shares_held": round(mine.get("shares", 0), 4),
+                    "cost_held": round(mine.get("cost", 0), 2),
+                    "title": (mine.get("title") or "")[:80],
+                    "outcome": mine.get("outcome"),
+                    "wallet": mine.get("wallet", "")})
+            return
         if any(po.get("token") == token
                for po in self.state.get("pending_orders", [])):
             self.log(f"EXIT {label} — skip (in-play hold already pending on "

live/copybot.paper.json

@@ -1,73 +1,74 @@
 {
-  "mode": "paper",
+ "mode": "paper",
-  "bankroll_usd": 1000.0,
+ "bankroll_usd": 1000.0,
-  "bankroll_pct": 0.04,
+ "bankroll_pct": 0.04,
-  "wallets": [
+ "wallets": [
-    {
+  {
-      "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+   "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
-      "name": "Kruto2027",
+   "name": "Kruto2027",
-      "class": "volume",
+   "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 80.0,
+   "floor": 80.0,
-      "floor_pin": 80.0
+   "floor_pin": 80.0
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "name": "0xbadaf319",
-      "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 30.71
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-      "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-      "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 470.51
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
-      "name": "1kto1m",
-      "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 314.43
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-      "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
-      "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 219.66
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
-      "name": "AIcAIc",
-      "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 375.06
-    },
-    {
-      "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-      "name": "JuiceFarm",
-      "class": "volume"
-    }
-  ],
-  "follow": {
-    "buy_only": true,
-    "entry_mode": "maker",
-    "exit_mode": "hold",
-    "min_their_usd": 25.0,
-    "min_entry": 0.0,
-    "max_entry": 0.95,
-    "class_pct": {
-      "volume": 0.04,
-      "whale": 0.12
-    }
   },
-  "risk": {
+  {
-    "max_trade_usd": 1000000.0,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-    "max_position_usd": 1000000.0,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-    "daily_spend_cap_usd": 1000000.0,
+   "class": "volume",
-    "max_total_exposure_usd": 1000000.0,
+   "floor": 30.71
-    "max_open_positions": 1000,
-    "min_price": 0.0,
-    "max_price": 0.99,
-    "min_order_usd": 5.0,
-    "max_per_event": 0
   },
-  "price_guard_abs": 0.05
+  {
+   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
+   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
+   "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 470.51
+  },
+  {
+   "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+   "name": "1kto1m",
+   "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 314.43
+  },
+  {
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 219.66
+  },
+  {
+   "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
+   "name": "AIcAIc",
+   "class": "volume",
+   "floor": 375.06
+  },
+  {
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "name": "JuiceFarm",
+   "class": "volume"
+  }
+ ],
+ "follow": {
+  "buy_only": true,
+  "entry_mode": "maker",
+  "exit_mode": "mirror",
+  "min_their_usd": 25.0,
+  "min_entry": 0.0,
+  "max_entry": 0.95,
+  "class_pct": {
+   "volume": 0.04,
+   "whale": 0.12
+  },
+  "mirror_sell_min_p": 0.9
+ },
+ "risk": {
+  "max_trade_usd": 1000000.0,
+  "max_position_usd": 1000000.0,
+  "daily_spend_cap_usd": 1000000.0,
+  "max_total_exposure_usd": 1000000.0,
+  "max_open_positions": 1000,
+  "min_price": 0.0,
+  "max_price": 0.99,
+  "min_order_usd": 5.0,
+  "max_per_event": 0
+ },
+ "price_guard_abs": 0.05
 }

live/portfolio.py

@@ -148,6 +148,17 @@ except Exception:
     _FOLLOW = {}
 ENTRY_MODE = os.environ.get("BT_ENTRY_MODE", _FOLLOW.get("entry_mode", "taker"))
 EXIT_MODE = os.environ.get("BT_EXIT_MODE", _FOLLOW.get("exit_mode", "mirror"))
+# band-guarded mirroring (#21 successor): sells below this price are NOT
+# mirrored — held to truth like hold mode (sell-band study: every band
+# <90c lost by mirroring; >=90c saved). 0.0 = mirror everything.
+MIRROR_SELL_MIN_P = float(os.environ.get(
+    "BT_MIRROR_SELL_MIN_P", _FOLLOW.get("mirror_sell_min_p", 0.0)))
+
+
+def _mirrors(exit_p):
+    """Would the bot mirror a sell at this price under the current flags?"""
+    return (EXIT_MODE != "hold"
+            and (exit_p or 0) >= MIRROR_SELL_MIN_P)
 
 
 def entry_model(p, stake):
@@ -525,7 +536,7 @@ def main():
             cash -= cost; fees_paid += fee; perW[b["wallet"]]["bets"] += 1
             shares = stake / p_eff                        # lag-adjusted entry price
             if b["kind"] == "res":
-                if b.get("exit_t") and EXIT_MODE != "hold":
+                if b.get("exit_t") and _mirrors(b.get("exit_p")):
                     # the signal SOLD pre-resolution -> mirror the exit, like the
                     # live bot: their exit price with the slippage haircut against
                     # us, minus the taker fee (sells pay it; redeems don't)
@@ -581,7 +592,7 @@ def main():
         stake = m.get("stake") or STAKE_MIN
         p_eff, fee, cost = entry_model(m["p"], stake)
         shares = stake / p_eff
-        if m.get("exit_t") and EXIT_MODE != "hold":   # would have mirrored
+        if m.get("exit_t") and _mirrors(m.get("exit_p")):  # would have mirrored
             xp = max(0.001, m["exit_p"] * (1 - SLIP))
             return shares * xp - shares * FEE_RATE * xp * (1 - xp) - cost
         if m.get("wp") is not None or m.get("won") is not None:
@@ -600,12 +611,12 @@ def main():
         return m.get("won")
 
     def _missed_won(m):
-        if m.get("exit_t") and EXIT_MODE != "hold":
+        if m.get("exit_t") and _mirrors(m.get("exit_p")):
             return None                       # mirrored exit: truth is the price
         return _truth_won(m)
 
     def _missed_status(m):
-        if m.get("exit_t") and EXIT_MODE != "hold":
+        if m.get("exit_t") and _mirrors(m.get("exit_p")):
             return "sold"
         w = _truth_won(m)
         if w is None:
@@ -683,6 +694,7 @@ def main():
                    for m in missed[:60]],
         "missed_pnl": round(sum(hypo_pnl(m) for m in missed), 2),
         "entry_mode": ENTRY_MODE, "exit_mode": EXIT_MODE,
+        "mirror_sell_min_p": MIRROR_SELL_MIN_P,
     }
     json.dump(out, open(os.path.join(HERE, OUT) if not os.path.isabs(OUT) else OUT, "w"),
               separators=(",", ":"))

research/sell_mirror_study.py

@@ -37,6 +37,28 @@ def main():
     db = tape.connect()
     tape.build_resolved(db)
     pays = fwd.payouts_for(db, [str(s["token"]) for s in sells])
+    # sell-price band slice: WHERE is mirroring unprofitable? delta>0 = the
+    # exit gave up value (holding won); delta<0 = the exit saved us.
+    BANDS = [(0, .30, "<30c"), (.30, .50, "30-50c"), (.50, .70, "50-70c"),
+             (.70, .90, "70-90c"), (.90, 1.01, ">=90c")]
+    print("\n== SELL-PRICE BANDS (both books pooled, chain-graded) ==")
+    for lo, hi, tag in BANDS:
+        bn = bd = 0
+        for s2 in sells:
+            p2 = pays.get(str(s2["token"]))
+            if p2 is None or p2 == 0.5:
+                continue
+            sp = s2.get("price") or 0
+            if not (lo <= sp < hi):
+                continue
+            sh2 = s2.get("shares") or 0
+            bn += 1
+            bd += (p2 - sp) * sh2
+        if bn:
+            lbl = ("SKIP-MIRROR (exits gave up value)" if bd > 0
+                   else "mirror OK (exits saved money)")
+            print(f"  {tag:>7}: n={bn:>3} · net delta {bd:+8.2f} "
+                  f"(${bd/bn:+.2f}/sell) -> {lbl}")
     for book in ("live", "paper"):
         ss = [s for s in sells if s["_book"] == book]
         n = unk = refund = right = wrong = 0