diff --git a/live/portfolio.json b/live/portfolio.json
index 971caf40..68494ce9 100644
--- a/live/portfolio.json
+++ b/live/portfolio.json
@@ -1 +1 @@
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(RKLB) hit (HIGH) $98 Week of June 29 2026?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":83.34,"pnl":5.1,"date":1782735023},{"title":"Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?","name":"BikesAreTheBikes","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":423.57,"pnl":29.76,"date":1782734687},{"title":"Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?","name":"BikesAreTheBikes","won":false,"status":"lost","stake":321.61,"pnl":-328.57,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Donstu Esports (-3.5) vs OlyBet SB (+3.5)","name":"Kruto2027","won":false,"status":"lost","stake":199.31,"pnl":-203.66,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner","name":"Kruto2027","won":true,"status":"won","stake":379.17,"pnl":50.12,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":true,"status":"won","stake":109.96,"pnl":22.89,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Brazil to score first vs. Japan?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":382.66,"pnl":373.14,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Japan to score first vs. Brazil?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":397.59,"pnl":82.3,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":false,"status":"lost","stake":50.0,"pnl":-50.4,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":398.86,"pnl":88.89,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":402.42,"pnl":101.71,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET","name":"imwalkinghere","won":true,"status":"won","stake":174.0,"pnl":107.56,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":411.43,"pnl":98.82,"date":1782705600},{"title":"Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET","name":"imwalkinghere","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":125.24,"pnl":105.39,"date":1782697840},{"title":"Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?","name":"BikesAreTheBikes","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":418.45,"pnl":-8.93,"date":1782688406},{"title":"Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":67.51,"pnl":7.53,"date":1782688204},{"title":"Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 85 mph?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":92.53,"pnl":5.31,"date":1782682226},{"title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":81.59,"pnl":11.9,"date":1782663634},{"title":"Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?","name":"BikesAreTheBikes","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":375.81,"pnl":12.68,"date":1782642004},{"title":"Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":89.86,"pnl":7.58,"date":1782627038},{"title":"Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":101.91,"pnl":39.58,"date":1782626744},{"title":"Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27?","name":"LSB1","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":418.52,"pnl":-72.05,"date":1782620669},{"title":"Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":269.85,"pnl":62.47,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 28?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":true,"status":"won","stake":52.2,"pnl":7.98,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET","name":"imwalkinghere","won":true,"status":"won","stake":128.55,"pnl":25.04,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Exact Score: Dalian Yingbo FC 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua FC?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":359.75,"pnl":17.59,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":true,"status":"won","stake":50.0,"pnl":41.45,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Bitcoin above 58,600 on June 28, 4PM ET?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":true,"status":"won","stake":57.32,"pnl":9.53,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":379.2,"pnl":43.55,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Canada to win the second half?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":380.94,"pnl":343.76,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":55.09,"pnl":16.43,"date":1782618991},{"title":"Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":308.2,"pnl":20.29,"date":1782618005},{"title":"Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?","name":"0xbadaf319","won":null,"status":"sold","stake":82.88,"pnl":1.4,"date":1782608702}],"missed":[{"title":"Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":353.89,"capped":false,"pnl":173.54,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":372.84,"capped":false,"pnl":30.75,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?","name":"LSB1","won":false,"status":"lost","stake":372.84,"capped":false,"pnl":-376.5,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Austria to win the second half?","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":372.84,"capped":false,"pnl":400.42,"date":1782619200},{"title":"Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals","name":"LSB1","won":true,"status":"won","stake":372.84,"capped":false,"pnl":62.99,"date":1782532800}],"missed_pnl":291.2}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/portfolio.py b/live/portfolio.py
index c50156d6..f93fdc91 100644
--- a/live/portfolio.py
+++ b/live/portfolio.py
@@ -117,6 +117,18 @@ else:
 if not WALLETS:
     raise SystemExit("no wallets to replay: create live/backtest.json or pass --wallets")
 
+# the live bot's pinned conviction floors (sync_floors -> copybot.paper.json).
+# When a replayed wallet is one the bot follows, gate on the SAME floor the bot
+# enforces — a recomputed p80 can drift a few % from the pin and then the two
+# books take different bets (alignment audit 2026-07-08). Candidate sets passed
+# via --wallets have no pin and fall back to the p80 recompute.
+try:
+    _PINNED = {w["wallet"].lower(): w["floor"]
+               for w in json.load(open(os.path.join(HERE, "copybot.paper.json")))["wallets"]
+               if w.get("floor")}
+except Exception:
+    _PINNED = {}
+
 
 def entry_model(p, stake):
     """(effective entry price, entry fee, total cash cost) of a $stake copy:
@@ -125,6 +137,30 @@ def entry_model(p, stake):
     fee = stake * FEE_RATE * (1 - p_eff)
     return p_eff, fee, stake + fee
 
+
+def _sold_pre_resolution(cx, won, res_t):
+    """Did the wallet SELL this position (a mirrorable exit the live bot would
+    copy) rather than redeem it at resolution? The timestamp test only works
+    when res_t is a real resolution moment — for in-play markets res_t is the
+    market's endDate metadata (game-DAY midnight), which pre-dates the wallet's
+    own entry, so the exit can never test earlier and every in-play sell used
+    to book as held-to-resolution (Kruto's Jul-7 Brewers sells, found
+    2026-07-08). Price is the fallback truth: a genuine sell prints a mid
+    price; a redeem (or post-resolution dump) prints ≈ the payout. When the two
+    disagree we book the wallet's actual exit print — that is what happened on
+    Polymarket, and it also self-corrects a poisoned won flag. A 50/50 refund
+    redeemed at 0.5 books as sold-at-0.5 (same money as refund, label S not R)."""
+    if res_t and cx["ts"] < res_t - 300:
+        return True
+    xp = cx.get("exit_p")
+    if xp is None:
+        return False
+    # a redeem reconstructs at EXACTLY the payout (payoff×shares/shares); the
+    # 0.02 band only absorbs avg-price rounding artifacts (0.8999998…), so a
+    # 0.96 exit on a won market correctly reads as a pre-resolution sell
+    payout = 1.0 if won else 0.0
+    return abs(xp - payout) > 0.02
+
 _MKT = {}
 _SLUG_CACHE = os.path.join(HERE, "slug_cache.json")
 try:
@@ -190,6 +226,8 @@ def window_bets():
                 best[cond] = (asset, won, p, res_t, size)
         if w.get("class") == "whale":
             thr = 0.0
+        elif w["wallet"].lower() in _PINNED:
+            thr = _PINNED[w["wallet"].lower()]
         else:
             pre = [size for asset, won, p, res_t, size in best.values() if res_t < START]
             thr = cache.conv_cutoff(pre if pre else
@@ -211,7 +249,7 @@ def window_bets():
                  "their": size, "entry_t": et, "p": p, "won": won,
                  "res_t": res_t or 0}
             cx = closed.get(asset)
-            if cx and res_t and cx["ts"] < res_t - 300:    # sold BEFORE resolution
+            if cx and _sold_pre_resolution(cx, won, res_t):
                 b["exit_t"], b["exit_p"] = cx["ts"], cx["exit_p"]
             out.append(b)
         # complete round trips the cache can't see: entered AND fully exited
@@ -225,9 +263,25 @@ def window_bets():
             et = ent.get(cond)
             if not et or et < START:
                 continue
-            if payouts.truth(cond) is not None:
-                continue        # resolved on-chain: their close may be a redeem,
-                                # not a sell — the cache row will cover it
+            wp = payouts.truth(cond)
+            if wp is not None and abs((cx["exit_p"] if cx["exit_p"] is not None
+                                       else wp) - wp) <= 0.02:
+                # resolved on-chain AND their close prints ≈ the payout: the
+                # close was the redeem, not a sell. The trusted cache row
+                # usually books this bet — but when res_t is bogus forward
+                # metadata (in-play/tennis endDate: Kruto's Chidekh total sat
+                # "unresolved until Jul 14" on a Jul-5 match) the row never
+                # qualifies and the bet used to vanish here. Book it as
+                # held-to-resolution at chain truth (2026-07-08).
+                best[cond] = None
+                out.append({"wallet": w["wallet"], "name": w["name"], "cond": cond,
+                            "asset": asset, "cls": w.get("class", "volume"),
+                            "their": cx["iv"], "entry_t": et, "p": cx["p"],
+                            "won": wp > 0.5, "wp": wp, "res_t": cx["ts"],
+                            "title": cx.get("title") or ""})
+                continue
+            # exit print ≠ payout (or market genuinely unresolved): a real
+            # pre-resolution sell — mirror it, like the live bot
             best[cond] = None   # one per market, same as everywhere
             out.append({"wallet": w["wallet"], "name": w["name"], "cond": cond,
                         "asset": asset, "cls": w.get("class", "volume"),
@@ -482,7 +536,7 @@ def main():
 
     # enrich resolved + missed with titles, keep most-recent 60
     resolved.sort(key=lambda r: r.get("exit_t") or r.get("res_t") or 0, reverse=True)
-    for r in resolved[:60]:
+    for r in resolved[:250]:
         m = market_meta(r["cond"])
         if m["title"]:                # round-trip recs already carry a title
             r["title"] = m["title"]
@@ -558,7 +612,7 @@ def main():
                                  else "won" if r["won"] else "lost"),
                       "stake": r.get("stake"), "pnl": round(r["pnl"], 2),
                       "date": r.get("exit_t") or r.get("res_t")}
-                     for r in resolved[:60]],
+                     for r in resolved[:250]],
         "missed": [{"title": m.get("title", ""), "name": m["name"],
                     "won": (None if "won" not in m or m.get("exit_t")
                             else (m["won"] if m.get("wp") is None else m["wp"] > 0.5)),