diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 8d2f44db..5d984329 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -9058,3 +9058,24 @@
 {"ts": 1786024521.8, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786024523.0, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786024525.7, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.346, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786024866.2, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786024867.5, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786024870.2, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.324, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025212.9, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1786025216.7, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.337, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025587.3, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025588.5, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025590.8, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.368, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025934.2, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025935.4, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025938.1, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.368, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026282.6, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.26, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026283.6, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026285.9, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.359, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026631.3, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.26, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026632.9, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026635.8, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.35, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026981.0, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.25, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026982.4, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.21, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786026984.9, "token": "105018125001683421642188507083357166141411975719572822588636238221967305408092", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.361, "shares_held": 115.61, "cost_held": 52.95, "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
index 2ede3e39..9b32f779 100644
--- a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
@@ -121,3 +121,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784469295, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "38596120750074321785333064789385162164853013897516945380739845321752073819772", "cond": "0xf137d500bee37ff54903e73dfb8cabcfdf8ef4c13c1dd322b649c329cb70c008", "title": "Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.5559, "stake": 101.66, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "won", "pnl": 79.86, "settled": 1784489183, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true}
 {"ts": 1784471224, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "46772667468744288997268807185140962881162063147482944578224960298326897165693", "cond": "0x0b5ca9a26521274332651c17a582205c1e7f8ecb8488effc461f03b3250c6158", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10AM ET", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.4496, "stake": 101.79, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": -10.69, "settled": 1784471551, "name": "1kto1m", "exit_price": 0.4171}
 {"ts": 1784471409, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "55756224092672312452220271511023752032089675393435446819167450327852495044652", "cond": "0xc0f70912445fc2aeee051c61d367a31ceebe940831ac329e63a406bdbc31528a", "title": "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "PARIVISION", "price": 0.47, "stake": 76.71, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 10.94, "settled": 1784471875, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.5519}
+{"ts": 1784475467, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "107519224001054263439274706964696866987866557807915774909819079291264377299291", "cond": "0x2621f174955892ef32bcabd62ae74d1e14530f0585527322fdf2d2cb7e41c27a", "title": "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "BetBoom Team", "price": 0.31, "stake": 98.34, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 26.49, "settled": 1784476110, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.4072}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index 3dc75afb..b6253f2c 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -2658,3 +2658,6 @@
 {"ts": 1786023338.2, "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "token": "11238501232911081431654803050551038714042092966568110352503139812909652068942", "cond": "0x05e533e6ea50db65911b5f9b1cf934c4bb464814e10119b0c35e5d00b3890338", "usd": 105.86, "price": 0.33, "reason": "$106 < conviction floor $379", "title": "LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786024161.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "15404273135460198936681172574249561190643458649150838755553511118708507370686", "cond": "0x0c37533837ed4d3378494fcd9ea7043d03cc3af9443d68dfa0414984efcbaff9", "usd": 2.45, "price": 0.022945, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the Fed\u2019s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1786024161.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "114356534705786272618065624048249324553795164094617490113205222910605417789216", "cond": "0x3983cda71404c649fd93c5efb200b83835bd67feb4593deab909417c93be5b5d", "usd": 58.73, "price": 0.95881, "reason": "entry 0.96 outside [0.00,0.95]", "title": "Will the Fed\u2019s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786024776.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "10410468023673713282701936976440825369421014412977299225171314901500470601641", "cond": "0x4c514d9ab9f822f3f7bcf72e14dc79ece77c52a6746f80b2339550765ccc5702", "usd": 18.13, "price": 0.9, "reason": "$18 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Over $30M committed to the Ryvo public sale?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786024776.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "76634071603125516216246372614661228272738010695134755280560017475554258991490", "cond": "0xef1f98d42c55976f90b7afa5153679409e2fa619e12782f982676ea1a243ae6f", "usd": 1.7, "price": 0.0699999619, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Over $12.5M committed to the Ryvo public sale?", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1786025226.3, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "46847307656882602122997465306414904346129309754935831590213955739893205462517", "cond": "0xbf1aa15d0707bc6425a3d9a392910870904464188d56fee0ddce49418413db9e", "usd": 48.03, "price": 0.138, "reason": "$48 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index f721b070..96d4c2bb 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,21 +1,6 @@
 {
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@@ -5000,7 +4985,22 @@
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@@ -28369,6 +28056,321 @@
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 284c0ca6..8e34a163 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -2140,6 +2140,21 @@
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+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "token": "40081275558852222228080198821361202017557872256707631666334039001378518619916",
+   "cond": "0x18b1c135d0a40c5894da9412e77311827d9caf16cf4cd6591b247a34730af919",
+   "title": "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?",
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+   "stake": 48.43,
+   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
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   {
    "ts": 1785873965,
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@@ -3070,25 +3085,9 @@
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-   "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?",
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-   "stake": 56.0,
-   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (102s)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": -2.64,
-   "settled": 1785574288,
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
-   "exit_price": 0.501
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- "missed_pnl": 21276.26,
+ "missed_pnl": 21249.77,
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   "side": "SELL",
@@ -3164,7 +3163,7 @@
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-   "miss_n": 47,
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@@ -3199,5 +3198,5 @@
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- "updated": 1786024665
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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index 7b5a0f7d..fb6b26ef 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
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@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@
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@@ -7365,6 +7365,21 @@
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+   "cond": "0x18b1c135d0a40c5894da9412e77311827d9caf16cf4cd6591b247a34730af919",
+   "title": "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?",
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diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index 1313169f..e9a4e540 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2222,3 +2222,18 @@
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