diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl
index 1e023415..3f876f83 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl
@@ -925,3 +925,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784908522.4, "side": "SELL", "token": "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978", "shares": 8.4221, "price": 0.977, "fee": 0.0057, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784908682.7, "side": "SELL", "token": "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978", "shares": 0.8422, "price": 0.996, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784908784.0, "side": "SELL", "token": "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978", "shares": 1.7967, "price": 0.99, "fee": 0.0005, "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920114.0, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211", "name": "1kto1m", "outcome": "Down", "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?", "detect_lag_s": 1.0, "their_price": 0.6201, "my_price": 0.6201, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 203.79, "cost": 126.38, "fee": 1.4402, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.61, "ba": 0.63, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 1820.48, "ask5c": 2291.51}, "maker": true}
diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 6214f77f..b77efed1 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -98,3 +98,5 @@
 {"ts": 1784918810.3, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784919152.8, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784919487.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784919818.6, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920153.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 9ca25767..fc48df59 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,9 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783541947.246319,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0xe74d3b4378c8d2dc851cc23d1fb9e078bd5aeab6af325fe3b548ff9174667e31",
-    "0x79a8ee7101e20ae0d38f224fd95de4522a952aa8f8332878d145dd9f11210a5c",
-    "0xd1c51c8e3a728b27665933a7cedb1695a73832c36b6da992961cba41382b6b11",
     "0x298918fe1343816de1daff3eb43cc4c6d40428bc4210286a0db9c3fccc77c052",
     "0x8bef527e8f655614ebce6d2fe693411c2033a32741a91346967cde447d204c4e",
     "0xcf421fdc762d6e9d3205daedf1b8bc1cce2767a1139ee952699c66dcd4fd5b86",
@@ -5000,7 +4997,10 @@
     "0x12e329816e400a45f2ba8b9aa84e69c0cbe306f5c0cd9d35313759f78bc9648f",
     "0x9df4c70612c41f6a16c4f347f92fd81837d4d940db6988996a5c681339513c65",
     "0x2a42ea53ed66f1ed63b8f7c986a26b5402e4cbbee09b61a977d3056f0e0dcbbd",
-    "0x77ecdfe9054978ff0f7eef4a2c29331de97bc61880f1a5bf18b69f64e5148391"
+    "0x77ecdfe9054978ff0f7eef4a2c29331de97bc61880f1a5bf18b69f64e5148391",
+    "0xc576929d1baf372ca7b01bf73465ec48e1d3e36d84b4712fb90c22027a9a0097",
+    "0xa9c5901d70a56d5c523f4ca729b8d99ebdd85b6ca4d4d13807ee0af9a4164fbf",
+    "0x592c09be34aed703a22b72b0f5f3bd92db0d37c30413153a9d5dba4e35e99dff"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -8306,7 +8306,8 @@
       "37249161190704775607428575307804845912599555720319144691205132126160430047423": 0.0,
       "101946995797410619447280728939434901491579999373186976460878634085571934521423": 0.0,
       "41280738325832192366820609767968905496399103307083568825188630965658856693531": 0.0,
-      "64291196600807803734247210507254672884365528042546786320856130220969822748679": 0.0
+      "64291196600807803734247210507254672884365528042546786320856130220969822748679": 0.0,
+      "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": 1145.91
     },
     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": {
       "110171125648822283483807302788459801078553019343858878759755941501211839974747": 14999.9909,
@@ -13386,11 +13387,20 @@
       "event": "spy-closes-above-on-july-24-2026",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "cond": "0xc3a579d99e8b291b923f6cdf026fe86a510411bb0b5190cb5d8764bd425974de"
+    },
+    "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": {
+      "shares": 203.79,
+      "cost": 126.37825459067466,
+      "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+      "outcome": "Down",
+      "event": "spx-up-or-down-on-july-24-2026",
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "cond": "0x1b9e81dfcbfcf530a3d96c2e67f82d69ef77369c5ada234d52c7c0da21a81c55"
     }
   },
   "spend": {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
-    "usd": 899.3240910597126
+    "usd": 1025.7023456503873
   },
   "seeded": [
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41",
@@ -13563,31 +13573,17 @@
     "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191": "0xa6480903e54c68f2ee79cacb7861dfcc9b473e8b07d6dcaf2c9923034a5fb56f",
     "73739632839816504626737108532045400878921898467348280846632249640824887675542": "0x6d69e16e27fb4587d357ad9cf30ebd740070d2ed9f615958df4bce0cfbb69bbe",
     "41280738325832192366820609767968905496399103307083568825188630965658856693531": "0x1b9e81dfcbfcf530a3d96c2e67f82d69ef77369c5ada234d52c7c0da21a81c55",
-    "35613520187412099541224398067273773941235385627221930769717313222719613151332": "0xc3a579d99e8b291b923f6cdf026fe86a510411bb0b5190cb5d8764bd425974de"
+    "35613520187412099541224398067273773941235385627221930769717313222719613151332": "0xc3a579d99e8b291b923f6cdf026fe86a510411bb0b5190cb5d8764bd425974de",
+    "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": "0x1b9e81dfcbfcf530a3d96c2e67f82d69ef77369c5ada234d52c7c0da21a81c55"
   },
-  "cash": 1495.1594354896713,
+  "cash": 1367.3409981712405,
   "lag": {
-    "n": 250,
-    "sum_s": 6305.750661373138,
+    "n": 251,
+    "sum_s": 6306.707342147827,
     "sum_slip_pct": -7.247834511462669
   },
-  "fees_paid": 360.7150784790927,
+  "fees_paid": 362.15526120684893,
   "lag_recent": [
-    [
-      1784824868.5,
-      2.5,
-      -0.01421
-    ],
-    [
-      1784825314.3,
-      1.3,
-      -0.0033
-    ],
-    [
-      1784833129.7,
-      0.7,
-      0.0
-    ],
     [
       1784835162.4,
       1.4,
@@ -13667,6 +13663,11 @@
       1784908328.6,
       0.6,
       0.0
+    ],
+    [
+      1784920114.0,
+      1.0,
+      0.0
     ]
   ],
   "bets": {
@@ -18210,11 +18211,31 @@
       "end_ts": 1784851200,
       "sold_shares": 29.03488883526638,
       "sold_proceeds": 27.22539533959126
+    },
+    "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": {
+      "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "name": "1kto1m",
+      "outcome": "Down",
+      "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+      "their_price": 0.6201,
+      "my_price": 0.6201,
+      "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+      "lag_s": 1.0,
+      "shares": 203.79,
+      "cost": 126.38,
+      "fee": 1.4402,
+      "opened": 1784920113,
+      "status": "open",
+      "exit_price": null,
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null,
+      "end_ts": 1784851200
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3279.700634625008,
-  "feed_sig": "695c28ffb2cc9db837fc886684932b1a",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784919488.7212405,
+  "feed_sig": "ea4e9d8e3757d420a4c082253f0fa63d",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784920018.4359925,
   "missed": [
     {
       "ts": 1783590977,
@@ -21388,17 +21409,17 @@
     "111238155193029214626119372717509509454868187612257655146390848111901958320265": 1,
     "54808825071623730922593344072571837691813951745707044026991588993889799442913": 1,
     "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173": 1,
-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 90,
+    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 92,
     "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978": 1
   },
   "trade_cursor": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1784882427,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784919562,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784919594,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1784886999,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1784904358,
-    "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784916525,
+    "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784920114,
     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": 1784916631,
     "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90": 1784865762
   },
@@ -21407,16 +21428,16 @@
     "ts": 1784914776
   },
   "last_fill": {
-    "ts": 1784908784,
-    "side": "SELL",
-    "price": 0.99,
-    "shares": 1.8,
-    "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?",
-    "outcome": "Yes"
+    "ts": 1784920113,
+    "side": "BUY",
+    "price": 0.6201,
+    "shares": 203.79,
+    "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+    "outcome": "Down"
   },
   "paper_maker": [],
   "maker_stats": {
-    "fills": 17,
+    "fills": 18,
     "misses": 6
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
@@ -22913,6 +22934,36 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784919818.6,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.87,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920153.1,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.87,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index e5cf1fb0..a113e74c 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,23 +1,23 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 126.38,
+ "stake": 126.33,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 3279.7,
- "cash": 1495.16,
- "deployed": 1664.42,
+ "cash": 1367.34,
+ "deployed": 1790.8,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 2159.55,
+ "realized": 2158.11,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
  "ledger_drift": -0.02,
- "open_count": 24,
- "fees_paid": 360.72,
+ "open_count": 25,
+ "fees_paid": 362.16,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 250,
-  "n24": 16,
-  "avg_s": 8.1,
+  "n": 251,
+  "n24": 17,
+  "avg_s": 7.7,
   "avg_slip_pct": 0.0,
   "window_h": 24
  },
@@ -49,6 +49,26 @@
   "JuiceFarm": 735.0
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+   "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+   "name": "1kto1m",
+   "outcome": "Down",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+   "their_price": 0.6201,
+   "my_price": 0.6201,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 1.0,
+   "shares": 203.79,
+   "cost": 126.38,
+   "fee": 1.44,
+   "opened": 1784920113,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "end_ts": 1784851200
+  },
   {
    "token": "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2107,27 +2127,6 @@
    "settled": 1784110948,
    "sold_shares": 69.0,
    "sold_proceeds": 65.45
-  },
-  {
-   "token": "51819545177992980050544653528219085611945377861594412412561048331713992664435",
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 13-19?",
-   "their_price": 0.7592,
-   "my_price": 0.764,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0063,
-   "lag_s": 3.5,
-   "shares": 91.1,
-   "cost": 69.6,
-   "fee": 0.49,
-   "opened": 1784104258,
-   "status": "closed",
-   "exit_price": 0.7618,
-   "pnl": -0.69,
-   "settled": 1784104776,
-   "sold_shares": 91.1,
-   "sold_proceeds": 69.4
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
@@ -3085,12 +3084,12 @@
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 96597.92,
  "last_fill": {
-  "ts": 1784908784,
-  "side": "SELL",
-  "price": 0.99,
-  "shares": 1.8,
-  "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?",
-  "outcome": "Yes"
+  "ts": 1784920113,
+  "side": "BUY",
+  "price": 0.6201,
+  "shares": 203.79,
+  "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+  "outcome": "Down"
  },
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
@@ -3117,11 +3116,11 @@
    "realized": 251.46,
    "n": 13,
    "wins": 0,
-   "open_cost": 0.0,
-   "open_n": 0,
+   "open_cost": 126.38,
+   "open_n": 1,
    "miss_n": 14,
    "miss_pnl": -16.16,
-   "last_ts": 1784906212
+   "last_ts": 1784920113
   },
   "Kruto2027": {
    "realized": 749.99,
@@ -3184,5 +3183,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1784919554
+ "updated": 1784920120
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index ca6962db..5338b7f1 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1784919554,
+ "updated": 1784920120,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 573.42,
@@ -26,11 +26,11 @@
    "realized": 251.46,
    "n": 13,
    "wins": 0,
-   "open_cost": 0.0,
-   "open_n": 0,
+   "open_cost": 126.38,
+   "open_n": 1,
    "miss_n": 14,
    "miss_pnl": -16.16,
-   "last_ts": 1784906212
+   "last_ts": 1784920113
   },
   "Kruto2027": {
    "realized": 749.99,
@@ -94,6 +94,26 @@
   }
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+   "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+   "name": "1kto1m",
+   "outcome": "Down",
+   "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+   "their_price": 0.6201,
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diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index 49039231..56333727 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2185,3 +2185,6 @@
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