diff --git a/copybot_fills.live.jsonl b/copybot_fills.live.jsonl
index aa7d0d77..35211b2b 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.live.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.live.jsonl
@@ -346,3 +346,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784791175.5, "side": "SELL", "token": "80270372288514892122229303181424592994977341771902366596528480848577129708762", "shares": 0.29, "price": 0.929, "fee": 0.0006, "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1784819630.0, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 23?", "detect_lag_s": 1.0, "their_price": 0.95, "my_price": 0.95, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 2.64, "cost": 2.51, "fee": 0.0038, "mode": "live", "book": {"bb": 0.93, "ba": 0.95, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 3052.32, "ask5c": 3963.56}}
 {"ts": 1784820179.8, "side": "SELL", "token": "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173", "shares": 0.1, "price": 0.85, "fee": 0.0004, "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1784820340.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 27\u00b0C on July 23?", "detect_lag_s": 5.6, "their_price": 0.8, "my_price": 0.77, "slippage_pct": -0.0375, "shares": 3.25, "cost": 2.5, "fee": 0.0172, "mode": "live", "book": {"bb": 0.75, "ba": 0.77, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 78.72, "ask5c": 332.75}}
diff --git a/copybot_state.live.json b/copybot_state.live.json
index bd5d5b3b..2c6e76e9 100644
--- a/copybot_state.live.json
+++ b/copybot_state.live.json
@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783572616.4091802,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0x51299b5e1bf72d9ad2b0eaa70f9f9ed3f6e38c00857f7cd96a19ffba08d6797d",
     "0x3fa08b9915769bcf540ef51a0fbc76eeb4ebca782c79bf0c1d10c0ab767bd934",
     "0xc7f96b12bd972229787c60f9b09a47a122f3a0e5013ce7d9b3643022b88f366a",
     "0xd82a2a264eed66f9f403245e289cd9d6d10b1436c506e95c74f0fb11d099f25a",
@@ -5000,7 +4999,8 @@
     "0xbd752ea572e02bdca49882a0485251036a3cfbfbe97301ec39099e8a9c253fdf",
     "0x542a41f9641f05afbf84aedc011ec67c4ca727dc99fdbb39482d73e44b068c24",
     "0x92dea0e5b0065eba7cfa24367ffef76475ff584ffe06c67174d49dda4f41c12b",
-    "0xf548e2bfbc6def6f445cf3acabfd13e7d8d8c239c18ee30e713cc2a587e41408"
+    "0xf548e2bfbc6def6f445cf3acabfd13e7d8d8c239c18ee30e713cc2a587e41408",
+    "0x596add106ff60bf34933a08dc2fee25cf3bfaad85a9d7fbc33203eb319b5ac63"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -7196,7 +7196,8 @@
       "48574977780602359973424721409966057674554416160116329470530397807988468635509": 0.0,
       "37191856477013737208001983122060014111424139697068666732101920490654689721653": 0.0,
       "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173": 294.9199,
-      "70195645594183504777678766878116662362245796053178329148702111955860840923559": 0.0
+      "70195645594183504777678766878116662362245796053178329148702111955860840923559": 0.0,
+      "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353": 61.85
     },
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
       "100468734153214358233990589631364606641061328246006529504204481849428608539045": 5322.2848,
@@ -11421,11 +11422,20 @@
       "event": "ethereum-price-on-july-23-2026",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "cond": "0x4bb8b2a094bdb1153e3b6c00ce53427fd5d987edd5090181162782b90764129f"
+    },
+    "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353": {
+      "shares": 3.246752,
+      "cost": 2.499999,
+      "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 27\u00b0C on July 23?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "event": "highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-23-2026",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "cond": "0x9d3c9c74d6dc88f3209c85176ee0f88b918d11eb00b59edddbcac37af1860ca3"
     }
   },
   "spend": {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
-    "usd": 5.0199929999999995
+    "usd": 7.519991999999999
   },
   "seeded": [
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41",
@@ -17105,11 +17115,12 @@
       "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
       "status": "open",
       "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "0xbadaf319"
     }
   ],
-  "feed_sig": "f7c3d9a873763b3aedddd61f5fd530dd",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784820076.0873349,
+  "feed_sig": "6c71756de55cf076e1a4753e2358ed39",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784820213.4914412,
   "adjustments": [
     {
       "ts": 1783906689,
@@ -17164,7 +17175,7 @@
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1784814235,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784819791,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784820336,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1784745123,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1784807970,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784798961,
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real.json b/live/copybot_live_real.json
index ddbc893d..2d2cc4bd 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real.json
@@ -5,20 +5,20 @@
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 62.94,
- "cash": 41.15,
- "deployed": 21.66,
+ "cash": 38.63,
+ "deployed": 24.16,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": -13.05,
+ "realized": -13.07,
  "adjustments": 9.44,
  "ledger_drift": 0.0,
- "open_count": 12,
- "fees_paid": 3.15,
+ "open_count": 13,
+ "fees_paid": 3.17,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 108,
-  "n24": 2,
-  "avg_s": 14.4,
-  "avg_slip_pct": 0.0283,
+  "n": 109,
+  "n24": 3,
+  "avg_s": 11.5,
+  "avg_slip_pct": 0.0064,
   "window_h": 24
  },
  "wallets": [
@@ -46,6 +46,25 @@
   "AIcAIc": 341.23
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 27\u00b0C on July 23?",
+   "their_price": 0.8,
+   "my_price": 0.77,
+   "slippage_pct": -0.0375,
+   "lag_s": 5.6,
+   "shares": 3.25,
+   "cost": 2.5,
+   "fee": 0.02,
+   "opened": 1784820335,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null
+  },
   {
    "token": "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2065,24 +2084,6 @@
    "settled": null,
    "sold_shares": 0.35,
    "sold_proceeds": 0.32
-  },
-  {
-   "token": "73893970296257160435491465547806830475405138836098479326244164349063701653888",
-   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-   "outcome": "Poor Rangers",
-   "title": "Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner",
-   "their_price": 0.4702,
-   "my_price": 0.5,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0633,
-   "shares": 2.04,
-   "cost": 1.02,
-   "fee": 0.02,
-   "opened": 1783767100,
-   "status": "lost",
-   "exit_price": 0.0,
-   "pnl": -1.04,
-   "settled": 1783776386
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
@@ -3047,11 +3048,11 @@
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 1171.63,
  "last_fill": {
-  "ts": 1784820179,
-  "side": "SELL",
-  "price": 0.85,
-  "shares": 0.1,
-  "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on J",
+  "ts": 1784820340,
+  "side": "BUY",
+  "price": 0.77,
+  "shares": 3.25,
+  "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 27\u00b0C on July 23?",
   "outcome": "No"
  },
  "wallet_pnl": {
@@ -3059,11 +3060,11 @@
    "realized": 1.45,
    "n": 19,
    "wins": 4,
-   "open_cost": 14.42,
-   "open_n": 6,
+   "open_cost": 16.92,
+   "open_n": 7,
    "miss_n": 62,
    "miss_pnl": 1169.13,
-   "last_ts": 1784819629
+   "last_ts": 1784820335
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
    "realized": -14.85,
@@ -3156,5 +3157,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1784820213
+ "updated": 1784820340
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real_full.json b/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
index 0ff3d80d..d77213dd 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 {
  "mode": "live",
- "updated": 1784820213,
+ "updated": 1784820340,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 1.45,
    "n": 19,
    "wins": 4,
-   "open_cost": 14.42,
-   "open_n": 6,
+   "open_cost": 16.92,
+   "open_n": 7,
    "miss_n": 62,
    "miss_pnl": 1169.13,
-   "last_ts": 1784819629
+   "last_ts": 1784820335
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
    "realized": -14.85,
@@ -104,6 +104,25 @@
   }
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 27\u00b0C on July 23?",
+   "their_price": 0.8,
+   "my_price": 0.77,
+   "slippage_pct": -0.0375,
+   "lag_s": 5.6,
+   "shares": 3.25,
+   "cost": 2.5,
+   "fee": 0.0172,
+   "opened": 1784820335,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null
+  },
   {
    "token": "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
index 76d3e243..f4393b09 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
@@ -2480,3 +2480,5 @@
 {"ts": 1784819791.2, "trade_ts": 1784819791, "lat_s": 0.2, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 71.5, "price": 0.06, "title": "Ethereum above 1,900 on July 23, 12PM ET?", "tx": "0x667b018751abb9a4a29c1a7fcdeae564affc63ad77bd80750c7784466f5dba5e", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784820178.79, "trade_ts": 1784820178, "lat_s": 0.79, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 12.72, "price": 0.14, "title": "Ethereum above 1,900 on July 23, 12PM ET?", "tx": "0x92dea0e5b0065eba7cfa24367ffef76475ff584ffe06c67174d49dda4f41c12b", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784820179.14, "trade_ts": 1784820178, "lat_s": 1.14, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 12.72, "price": 0.88, "title": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on J", "tx": "0xf548e2bfbc6def6f445cf3acabfd13e7d8d8c239c18ee30e713cc2a587e41408", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784820334.67, "trade_ts": 1784820334, "lat_s": 0.67, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 65.333332, "price": 0.1799999883673467, "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 26\u00b0C on July 23?", "tx": "0x575c9de035b84e3d278e9659effe28678301af8100a5ba1fa43e09dca8e9094d", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784820335.68, "trade_ts": 1784820335, "lat_s": 0.68, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 61.85, "price": 0.8, "title": "Will the highest temperature in London be 27\u00b0C on July 23?", "tx": "0x596add106ff60bf34933a08dc2fee25cf3bfaad85a9d7fbc33203eb319b5ac63", "seen": false}