diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
index 5f447bb1..71606e9e 100644
--- a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
@@ -11,3 +11,4 @@
 {"ts": 1783620287, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "101398220491720323754799949069639964958286012335853846453785209954253068634131", "cond": "0x44321e793575ffc4f54c11a226dacb86e4b5595d2bd48479dd222ae7d85211a1", "title": "Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Inner Circle", "price": 0.2899, "stake": 77.32, "reason": "fill-split entry: clips read sub-floor individually (merge fix 2026-07-09)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 2.04, "settled": 1783620639, "exit_price": 0.3101, "name": "gkmgkldfmg"}
 {"ts": 1783622007, "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "token": "22725380484456966301228939445880731453285484401950854931468064580525084575682", "cond": "0x143c926299a00a8efbbb4368be94376883164ebeca3006dcb384f11b00f85a8a", "title": "PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to Score", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.8593, "stake": 77.32, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": -0.64, "settled": 1783634212, "name": "0x41558102", "exit_price": 0.8594}
 {"ts": 1783625835, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "103411465761314013516623317407991195647989479153015683264102111901794650848128", "cond": "0x3c07935adc293c658ab20651f7fc6478d36e6bfdb375caab539fca9c81de03fd", "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "LGD Gaming", "price": 0.3851, "stake": 79.0, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 30.85, "settled": 1783626771, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.55}
+{"ts": 1783627210, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "103411465761314013516623317407991195647989479153015683264102111901794650848128", "cond": "0x3c07935adc293c658ab20651f7fc6478d36e6bfdb375caab539fca9c81de03fd", "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "LGD Gaming", "price": 0.58, "stake": 81.63, "reason": "price moved 0.50\u21920.58", "status": "sold", "pnl": 2.84, "settled": 1783627396, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.6146}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index 1db6133e..36bd52bf 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -269,3 +269,4 @@
 {"ts": 1785139580.5, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46966013440873061611962672369730207092984843730413793442887385369180018916685", "cond": "0xdcd3948e813ac66da8a604883f4cc02f7d3a86cbfb6ec5650cec05694850ed8e", "usd": 3.17, "price": 0.7600001440000576, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785139582.4, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46966013440873061611962672369730207092984843730413793442887385369180018916685", "cond": "0xdcd3948e813ac66da8a604883f4cc02f7d3a86cbfb6ec5650cec05694850ed8e", "usd": 3.8, "price": 0.76, "reason": "$4 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785139585.1, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46966013440873061611962672369730207092984843730413793442887385369180018916685", "cond": "0xdcd3948e813ac66da8a604883f4cc02f7d3a86cbfb6ec5650cec05694850ed8e", "usd": 268.49, "price": 0.76, "reason": "$268 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785139709.1, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985", "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01", "usd": 15.07, "price": 0.7700000348, "reason": "$15 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 04507622..e82d4f52 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783541947.246319,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0x99526c4edb3c640274ff43dc5c3a7dbc8fb8557b9417bcfd9ce6e8f88e2bc56d",
-    "0x7094e9b788f6455fb6018e31a14ff559406b16793627d7ccb7fbf0f87cd019ef",
     "0xad68e83d1cb01d624192199f4371a0de90735cfae0beb95080112aecdf85797c",
     "0x81c7fadcdbb77c04c4686c9bc98e4be8eee2fe606bbb5982ea284fd9a8ea94e8",
     "0x33d38ca34b90327ba532750fec22b9a32353eb4623460267581e62adf67e9879",
@@ -5000,7 +4998,9 @@
     "0x79514573ed5d870dabb3b60fabfb2c7bdd652d7bc6aa840b6a3b3efe47c539ac",
     "0xc78b97a10c0425c698a9c40b4ccf78037f6627df412630c9fdae48eb3eff004d",
     "0xa08cedfbe9ba30410340544b69263564489d53edebb0c390f0fbbb50d0950f6c",
-    "0xd80c6009e1ead950e6df90ff48e44788ee30a80f9f310bd5b6be7d54c006793d"
+    "0xd80c6009e1ead950e6df90ff48e44788ee30a80f9f310bd5b6be7d54c006793d",
+    "0xd13025f9d8cd0221685b864b03fb853d07883deae214ad407f475a33e5f5ef48",
+    "0xfb11e780b10190efeb32e2f26ae8226016691d705250e03bd948aa69923df5f3"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -19085,25 +19085,9 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3341.713851780293,
-  "feed_sig": "c67a829ff95220befde72ad4cd80b7cf",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1785139497.0978322,
+  "feed_sig": "530f0f4326cbf3cfd3f8237187023b68",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1785139626.2270613,
   "missed": [
-    {
-      "ts": 1783627210,
-      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-      "token": "103411465761314013516623317407991195647989479153015683264102111901794650848128",
-      "cond": "0x3c07935adc293c658ab20651f7fc6478d36e6bfdb375caab539fca9c81de03fd",
-      "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 Winner",
-      "outcome": "LGD Gaming",
-      "price": 0.58,
-      "stake": 81.63,
-      "reason": "price moved 0.50\u21920.58",
-      "status": "sold",
-      "pnl": 2.84,
-      "settled": 1783627396,
-      "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-      "exit_price": 0.6146
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1783627634,
       "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -22275,6 +22259,21 @@
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null,
       "name": "0xbadaf319"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785139689,
+      "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+      "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+      "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+      "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+      "outcome": "T1",
+      "price": 0.77,
+      "stake": 133.64,
+      "reason": "maker bid unfilled (62s)",
+      "status": "open",
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "JuiceFarm"
     }
   ],
   "no_miss_toks": [
@@ -22401,12 +22400,12 @@
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785077212,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785139224,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785139228,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785099999,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1785074847,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785121536,
     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": 1785134371,
-    "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90": 1785139585
+    "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90": 1785139708
   },
   "boot": {
     "id": "82639ab81f3e",
@@ -22420,31 +22419,10 @@
     "title": "LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
     "outcome": "T1"
   },
-  "paper_maker": [
-    {
-      "paper_maker": true,
-      "sz": 173.56,
-      "mode": "maker",
-      "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
-      "side": "BUY",
-      "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
-      "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
-      "outcome": "T1",
-      "event": null,
-      "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
-      "their_price": 0.77,
-      "their_ts": 1785139620,
-      "price": 0.77,
-      "is_add": false,
-      "stake": 133.64263451761173,
-      "ts": 1785139626.1476548,
-      "ttl_s": 60.0,
-      "ba_at_signal": 0.78
-    }
-  ],
+  "paper_maker": [],
   "maker_stats": {
     "fills": 46,
-    "misses": 19
+    "misses": 20
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
     {
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index c45988d9..610d5bd1 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -2142,6 +2142,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139689,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 133.64,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (62s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785128135,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3076,24 +3091,9 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.5835
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784747979,
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "token": "68080778697884921540335032370654180051222428162809511382222697646266365598353",
-   "cond": "0xf473c2e521258a81d44f16fd65e811de7bcb6646912561583969004b81c10ec1",
-   "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "price": 0.56,
-   "stake": 116.3,
-   "reason": "price moved 0.44\u21920.56",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 111127.17,
+ "missed_pnl": 111124.33,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1785139521,
   "side": "BUY",
@@ -3179,7 +3179,7 @@
    "wins": 2,
    "open_cost": 133.65,
    "open_n": 1,
-   "miss_n": 0,
+   "miss_n": 1,
    "miss_pnl": 0.0,
    "last_ts": 1785139491
   },
@@ -3204,5 +3204,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785139565
+ "updated": 1785139695
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index c6251207..f97b072d 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785139565,
+ "updated": 1785139695,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 534.13,
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@
    "wins": 2,
    "open_cost": 133.65,
    "open_n": 1,
-   "miss_n": 0,
+   "miss_n": 1,
    "miss_pnl": 0.0,
    "last_ts": 1785139491
   },
@@ -5223,6 +5223,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785139689,
+   "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90",
+   "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985",
+   "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01",
+   "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage",
+   "outcome": "T1",
+   "price": 0.77,
+   "stake": 133.64,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (62s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "JuiceFarm"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785128135,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",