diff --git a/HANDOFF.md b/HANDOFF.md index 950dd28d..1fa74d2f 100644 --- a/HANDOFF.md +++ b/HANDOFF.md @@ -7,6 +7,28 @@ the private key, never raise/loosen caps, never rotate the Discord webhook DISARM the live bot (`flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM`) rather than push through it. +## Bench review 2026-07-16 (follow set rev 4: AIcAIc re-added, no bench promotions) +Forward table = portfolio.json resolved rows (model $-weighted), two windows: +since 07-11 and since the 07-13 21:30Z swap. Verdict: +- **NO promotion for Vahan88 (−21.6% / −30.5%) or EdwardIN (−11.1% / −8.9%)** + — both negative in both windows (EdwardIN ate two ~$1k Norway–England + halftime props). Both stay benched in backtest.json. +- **AIcAIc RE-ADDED (6th wallet, auto p80 floor)**: +25.6% since 07-11 and + +21.9% across 11 bets since being dropped — spread across many LoL markets, + not one hit. The Esports World Cup (its exact niche) runs through August; + the 07-13 drop was made mid-bad-stretch, right as its season started. + WHIPSAW RISK acknowledged: the drop and the re-add are both ~2-week-noise + decisions; the tiebreaker is the seasonal catalyst + the informed-niche + prior (June replay). If AIcAIc is negative again next Friday, it goes for + good and the slot rule tightens. +- **Kruto2027 stays** (floor 80 pinned): inert (3 model bets, −12.8%) but an + idle wallet costs nothing and its 30d +$3.5k says it's worth the seat. +- **BikesAreTheBikes stays**: −3.7%/−6.1% on n≤12 — too early to cut. +- **LSB1 note**: +21.4% post-swap (16 bets) but −7.5% on the longer window + and −$438 all-time paper — NOT re-added; re-check next Friday. +- Guard/floor counterfactuals: re-validated 07-14 by the missed-bets audit + (guard skips net-negative would-be on both books) — unchanged. + ## Shipped since rev 12 (2026-07-15) - **PAPER FAK PARITY**: PaperExecutor BUYs now model live FAK reality — if the depth gate's book snapshot (threaded through meta["book"], no second diff --git a/config.live.example.json b/config.live.example.json index 93b5d23d..021d5560 100644 --- a/config.live.example.json +++ b/config.live.example.json @@ -72,6 +72,11 @@ "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", "floor": 158.0 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", + "name": "AIcAIc", + "class": "volume" } ], "feed_path": "live/copybot_live_real.json", diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 9663a887..816a5023 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -33,6 +33,11 @@ "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", "floor": 227.2 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", + "name": "AIcAIc", + "class": "volume" } ], "follow": {