From 417490f49a828e0a54b87678d300aaa8d15d565e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 16:27:54 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- history/reconcile.csv | 1 + live/conviction_wallets.json | 122 ++- live/dashboard.html | 10 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow_missed.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_live_replica.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_missed.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1650 ++++++++++++++--------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 514 ++++----- 10 files changed, 1167 insertions(+), 1140 deletions(-) diff --git a/history/reconcile.csv b/history/reconcile.csv index 06c86887..95af065a 100644 --- a/history/reconcile.csv +++ b/history/reconcile.csv @@ -2,3 +2,4 @@ date,live_bt_ev,live_fill_gap,live_filled_ev,live_filled_n,live_missed_ev,live_m 2026-07-24,3797,33,-250,14,1915,40,-16.58,0,0,2133,73,127,3797,593,548,23,299,37,0,0,2951,67,109.05 2026-07-27,4030,43,-248,22,1839,56,-27.24,-300,3,2739,101,182,4030,615,1054,41,237,48,-300,3,3039,90,200.53 2026-07-28,4443,43,-248,22,1908,68,-27.31,-241,4,3024,111,205,4443,617,996,46,543,60,-300,3,3204,96,170.53 +2026-07-29,5143,-12,-58,29,2504,84,-27.31,-341,5,3038,139,257,5143,613,1375,75,1062,71,-249,9,2955,102,44.11 diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index c6218bae..270aebae 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -247,9 +247,9 @@ "med_stake": 3495, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 353, - "fwd_win": 82.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414, - "fwd_n": 122 + "fwd_win": 80.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.36, + "fwd_n": 130 }, { "wallet": "0x4a9a12ab62660a22b84cb36d1610f4d09abb8297", @@ -439,7 +439,7 @@ "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.08, + "z_all": 4.09, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -537,7 +537,7 @@ "train_win": 89.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.271, "train_z": 3.09, - "z_all": 2.21, + "z_all": 2.22, "med_stake": 131, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 48, @@ -590,16 +590,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.244, - "train_z": 3.88, - "z_all": 3.96, - "med_stake": 217, + "train_win": 81.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.23, + "train_z": 3.76, + "z_all": 3.88, + "med_stake": 231, "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 113, - "fwd_win": 73.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, - "fwd_n": 67 + "train_n": 112, + "fwd_win": 74.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, + "fwd_n": 66 }, { "wallet": "0x1f2ea878eece1493f887f6ad99fd41cbe68a1730", @@ -653,9 +653,9 @@ "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 44, - "fwd_win": 59.1, + "fwd_win": 60.0, "fwd_conv_roi": -0.118, - "fwd_n": 22 + "fwd_n": 25 }, { "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", @@ -713,6 +713,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.133, "fwd_n": 424 }, + { + "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", + "name": "0x93164f2f", + "train_win": 65.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.196, + "train_z": 3.24, + "z_all": 2.63, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 225, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 1 + }, { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", "name": "0x0c3e55cf", @@ -737,23 +751,9 @@ "med_stake": 287, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 65, - "fwd_win": 56.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019, - "fwd_n": 282 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", - "name": "0x93164f2f", - "train_win": 65.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.189, - "train_z": 3.16, - "z_all": 2.69, - "med_stake": 100, - "avg_entry": 0.55, - "train_n": 224, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 + "fwd_win": 54.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.003, + "fwd_n": 378 }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", @@ -831,7 +831,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.17, "train_z": 3.81, - "z_all": 4.2, + "z_all": 4.21, "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, @@ -941,12 +941,12 @@ "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", "train_win": 67.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.144, - "train_z": 6.77, - "z_all": 2.5, - "med_stake": 189, + "train_conv_roi": 0.145, + "train_z": 6.76, + "z_all": 2.43, + "med_stake": 188, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 730, + "train_n": 731, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 @@ -969,10 +969,10 @@ "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", "name": "0xed61f86b", "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.137, - "train_z": 3.04, + "train_conv_roi": 0.136, + "train_z": 3.03, "z_all": 10.29, - "med_stake": 1305, + "med_stake": 1315, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 305, "fwd_win": 85.7, @@ -1045,9 +1045,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 81.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, - "fwd_n": 286 + "fwd_win": 81.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.132, + "fwd_n": 289 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1136,13 +1136,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1", "name": "0x8f692690", - "train_win": 76.9, + "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, - "train_z": 2.4, - "z_all": 2.9, + "train_z": 2.42, + "z_all": 2.83, "med_stake": 6650, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 225, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 226, "fwd_win": 59.5, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.027, "fwd_n": 74 @@ -1245,6 +1245,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, "fwd_n": 77 }, + { + "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", + "name": "0x60a92c86", + "train_win": 77.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.098, + "train_z": 2.02, + "z_all": 2.0, + "med_stake": 5714, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 122, + "fwd_win": 70.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.001, + "fwd_n": 67 + }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1395,9 +1409,9 @@ "med_stake": 799, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 53.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.113, - "fwd_n": 62 + "fwd_win": 52.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.127, + "fwd_n": 63 }, { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", @@ -1447,7 +1461,7 @@ "train_win": 75.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.016, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.16, + "z_all": 2.2, "med_stake": 3442, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 361, diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 634178b2..8e62c423 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

62 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-28 13:48

+

63 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-29 16:27

-
Validated wallets
62
+
Validated wallets
63
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.1
+
Median OOS z
3.2
Value / longshot
47
-
Favorite-rider
7
+
Favorite-rider
6
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.