diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index a325e49b..831d5835 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -167,18 +167,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", - "name": "0xe8ca3f75", - "train_win": 72.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.679, - "train_z": 8.51, - "avg_entry": 0.47, - "train_n": 238, - "fwd_win": 77.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.52, - "fwd_n": 49 - }, { "wallet": "0x916111713050c71c4e073ed5f1a2888c2980533b", "name": "0x91611171", @@ -215,6 +203,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.261, "fwd_n": 6 }, + { + "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", + "name": "0xe8ca3f75", + "train_win": 72.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.67, + "train_z": 8.37, + "avg_entry": 0.47, + "train_n": 236, + "fwd_win": 76.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.483, + "fwd_n": 51 + }, { "wallet": "0xade74a23c444d0eebee00034459fbc269fab58af", "name": "0xade74a23", @@ -359,6 +359,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.162, "fwd_n": 88 }, + { + "wallet": "0xd398552ad679a1466b154c0d56c33638a1265309", + "name": "0xd398552a", + "train_win": 75.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.514, + "train_z": 4.43, + "avg_entry": 0.51, + "train_n": 81, + "fwd_win": 36.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.516, + "fwd_n": 60 + }, { "wallet": "0xb4c586f52897ab3c92a742351ba4f0e895080d77", "name": "0xb4c586f5", @@ -743,18 +755,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", - "name": "0x5b6e9bce", - "train_win": 77.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.318, - "train_z": 4.99, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 162, - "fwd_win": 73.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.308, - "fwd_n": 57 - }, { "wallet": "0xeb6bf7369a1dd42c9c727d01939c209568d0632b", "name": "0xeb6bf736", @@ -1271,6 +1271,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", + "name": "0xc684828f", + "train_win": 78.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.192, + "train_z": 4.2, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 238, + "fwd_win": 72.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, + "fwd_n": 88 + }, { "wallet": "0x31864feb9d25dee93728c6225ba891530967e9ca", "name": "0x31864feb", @@ -1283,18 +1295,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, "fwd_n": 61 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", - "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 78.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.186, - "train_z": 4.3, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 250, - "fwd_win": 73.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.015, - "fwd_n": 90 - }, { "wallet": "0x2b58033c5d54132eb97ca0ca22a0a50ac2e7ec75", "name": "0x2b58033c", @@ -1392,16 +1392,16 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", - "name": "0x1fb7053b", - "train_win": 71.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.175, - "train_z": 2.95, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 124, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.211, - "fwd_n": 27 + "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", + "name": "0x5b6e9bce", + "train_win": 71.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.176, + "train_z": 2.56, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 99, + "fwd_win": 73.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.296, + "fwd_n": 57 }, { "wallet": "0xa6b8e799dacdd120681b6cee43d6768844fadc86", @@ -1439,6 +1439,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.234, "fwd_n": 54 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb8adbd9b70907cd22cf1ab84f5091d7920d10e38", + "name": "0xb8adbd9b", + "train_win": 79.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.173, + "train_z": 2.73, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 130, + "fwd_win": 84.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.052, + "fwd_n": 99 + }, { "wallet": "0xd212624d423e1c351783fe71bb4250850d34feaf", "name": "0xd212624d", @@ -1451,6 +1463,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", + "name": "0x1fb7053b", + "train_win": 71.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.172, + "train_z": 2.87, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 122, + "fwd_win": 69.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.251, + "fwd_n": 29 + }, { "wallet": "0x336848a1a1cb00348020c9457676f34d882f21cd", "name": "0x336848a1", @@ -1487,30 +1511,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.016, "fwd_n": 207 }, - { - "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", - "name": "0x12f93b2a", - "train_win": 81.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.169, - "train_z": 3.58, - "avg_entry": 0.73, - "train_n": 279, - "fwd_win": 77.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.02, - "fwd_n": 89 - }, - { - "wallet": "0xb8adbd9b70907cd22cf1ab84f5091d7920d10e38", - "name": "0xb8adbd9b", - "train_win": 78.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.165, - "train_z": 2.64, - "avg_entry": 0.69, - "train_n": 132, - "fwd_win": 83.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.031, - "fwd_n": 110 - }, { "wallet": "0x74570d4da5c33aa03f19d3586aeace0bb7a11ec9", "name": "0x74570d4d", @@ -1859,6 +1859,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.087, "fwd_n": 182 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", + "name": "0xb0f47416", + "train_win": 70.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.121, + "train_z": 3.44, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 283, + "fwd_win": 65.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.089, + "fwd_n": 234 + }, { "wallet": "0x6b0e20fa85e5035f72d73ee8622d6816a79344f6", "name": "0x6b0e20fa", @@ -2039,18 +2051,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", - "name": "0xb0f47416", - "train_win": 69.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.107, - "train_z": 3.23, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 301, - "fwd_win": 66.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, - "fwd_n": 223 - }, { "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", "name": "0x23f544a1", @@ -2111,6 +2111,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", + "name": "0x86c878cd", + "train_win": 77.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.101, + "train_z": 2.83, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 281, + "fwd_win": 71.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.152, + "fwd_n": 113 + }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -2135,18 +2147,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", - "name": "0x86c878cd", - "train_win": 77.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.098, - "train_z": 2.76, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 280, - "fwd_win": 72.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.172, - "fwd_n": 110 - }, { "wallet": "0xea9f038c28acdac1bd415f998c0d24e59e58045e", "name": "0xea9f038c", @@ -2246,14 +2246,14 @@ { "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", "name": "0xf3488e52", - "train_win": 78.3, + "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.087, - "train_z": 3.39, + "train_z": 3.3, "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 263, - "fwd_win": 76.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.07, - "fwd_n": 103 + "train_n": 246, + "fwd_win": 77.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.099, + "fwd_n": 119 }, { "wallet": "0x9f2c955bdf958f6eecb5b5b04583a2203608d0df", @@ -2423,18 +2423,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 }, - { - "wallet": "0x8cd9439c1205da4c9ba18559cdcfe2e12278190e", - "name": "0x8cd9439c", - "train_win": 81.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.064, - "train_z": 3.57, - "avg_entry": 0.75, - "train_n": 408, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x93c4cf598617d3670809d257ab46839da2afbc3d", "name": "0x93c4cf59", @@ -2628,16 +2616,16 @@ "fwd_n": 26 }, { - "wallet": "0x409555b6b66e3d9b26c289a24121c19d93144583", - "name": "0x409555b6", - "train_win": 73.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.034, - "train_z": 2.45, - "avg_entry": 0.69, - "train_n": 449, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 + "wallet": "0x7895b2409fb77887aa1f0ab0950dc2fdeeaee806", + "name": "0x7895b240", + "train_win": 71.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.035, + "train_z": 3.23, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 356, + "fwd_win": 47.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.011, + "fwd_n": 17 }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", @@ -2663,18 +2651,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x7895b2409fb77887aa1f0ab0950dc2fdeeaee806", - "name": "0x7895b240", - "train_win": 71.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.031, - "train_z": 3.16, - "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 368, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 - }, { "wallet": "0x080a53ccb5caf5949d2e67074e8629fe1f249da4", "name": "0x080a53cc", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 5fe93b22..6f1aad73 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
31 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-28 11:46
+24 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-29 11:38
How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.