From 4015cf023005aa165524f17fe20be86a77c166c7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:48:53 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 120 +-- live/copybot.paper.json | 8 +- live/dashboard.html | 4 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1744 +++++++++++++++++----------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 520 +++++----- 6 files changed, 1223 insertions(+), 1175 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 7e64af85..2f5f944d 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -37,9 +37,9 @@ "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 100.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.148, - "fwd_n": 18 + "fwd_win": 96.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.014, + "fwd_n": 26 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", @@ -285,13 +285,13 @@ "train_win": 70.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.437, "train_z": 4.99, - "z_all": 13.36, + "z_all": 13.26, "med_stake": 3505, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 350, - "fwd_win": 81.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.071, - "fwd_n": 120 + "fwd_win": 82.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414, + "fwd_n": 122 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -335,6 +335,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.172, "fwd_n": 228 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", + "name": "0xc0b646c3", + "train_win": 76.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.408, + "train_z": 2.45, + "z_all": 3.04, + "med_stake": 165, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 38, + "fwd_win": 60.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.034, + "fwd_n": 53 + }, { "wallet": "0xbf1040ad7009ed6532f885c2043630d1cedf15ce", "name": "0xbf1040ad", @@ -353,8 +367,8 @@ "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.378, - "train_z": 7.97, + "train_conv_roi": 0.379, + "train_z": 7.98, "z_all": 14.58, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, @@ -405,27 +419,13 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.128, "fwd_n": 240 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", - "name": "0xc0b646c3", - "train_win": 76.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.326, - "train_z": 2.46, - "z_all": 3.04, - "med_stake": 165, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 38, - "fwd_win": 59.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.007, - "fwd_n": 54 - }, { "wallet": "0xc904211fd4412d5caa0b51f923304bf5e1821e9a", "name": "0xc904211f", "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.07, + "z_all": 4.08, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -457,9 +457,9 @@ "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 56.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.321, - "fwd_n": 285 + "fwd_win": 55.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.312, + "fwd_n": 287 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", @@ -579,7 +579,7 @@ "train_win": 81.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.23, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 3.98, + "z_all": 4.01, "med_stake": 231, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 112, @@ -705,7 +705,7 @@ "train_win": 65.8, "train_conv_roi": 0.196, "train_z": 3.24, - "z_all": 2.64, + "z_all": 2.67, "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 225, @@ -723,9 +723,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 234, - "fwd_win": 74.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.048, - "fwd_n": 485 + "fwd_win": 74.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.049, + "fwd_n": 486 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -842,13 +842,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xfdb826a0fb4a90b4cc9049e408ea3ef1b73ae4c9", "name": "0xfdb826a0", - "train_win": 67.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.162, - "train_z": 4.91, + "train_win": 68.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.164, + "train_z": 4.95, "z_all": 4.56, "med_stake": 133, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 443, + "train_n": 444, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -884,13 +884,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", "name": "0xed61f86b", - "train_win": 73.2, + "train_win": 73.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.149, - "train_z": 3.13, + "train_z": 3.12, "z_all": 10.35, "med_stake": 1317, "avg_entry": 0.66, - "train_n": 306, + "train_n": 305, "fwd_win": 85.7, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, "fwd_n": 21 @@ -929,7 +929,7 @@ "train_win": 67.3, "train_conv_roi": 0.142, "train_z": 6.71, - "z_all": 2.37, + "z_all": 2.39, "med_stake": 188, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 733, @@ -1049,6 +1049,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.118, "fwd_n": 63 }, + { + "wallet": "0x40db60f96894e44b9f0ea967021452280a12ca8c", + "name": "0x40db60f9", + "train_win": 78.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.12, + "train_z": 2.26, + "z_all": 2.27, + "med_stake": 331, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 156, + "fwd_win": 77.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, + "fwd_n": 324 + }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", "name": "0x9c5ee2db", @@ -1063,20 +1077,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x40db60f96894e44b9f0ea967021452280a12ca8c", - "name": "0x40db60f9", - "train_win": 78.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.116, - "train_z": 2.19, - "z_all": 2.24, - "med_stake": 325, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 155, - "fwd_win": 77.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.023, - "fwd_n": 204 - }, { "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", "name": "0x23f544a1", @@ -1097,7 +1097,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, "train_z": 2.41, - "z_all": 2.86, + "z_all": 2.9, "med_stake": 6664, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 226, @@ -1115,9 +1115,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 71.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, - "fwd_n": 160 + "fwd_win": 72.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.097, + "fwd_n": 168 }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", @@ -1265,7 +1265,7 @@ "train_win": 69.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.088, "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 2.06, + "z_all": 2.08, "med_stake": 56, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 319, @@ -1349,7 +1349,7 @@ "train_win": 76.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.045, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.94, + "z_all": 2.96, "med_stake": 98, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 264, diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index ac1c82e4..2f16d544 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 35.78 + "floor": 32.46 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -26,19 +26,19 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 318.91 + "floor": 316.98 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", - "floor": 224.77 + "floor": 220.35 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "AIcAIc", "class": "volume", - "floor": 344.56 + "floor": 369.27 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index a8624d6c..74d57afb 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

66 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-21 12:19

+

66 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-22 12:48

Validated wallets
66
Median z
4.4
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.