diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 2c30e3d9..9a14cda2 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -17,11 +17,11 @@ "wallet": "0x2f9b8638f03af7d6053c512cc054ac733489a68c", "name": "0x2f9b8638", "train_win": 84.6, - "train_conv_roi": 2.873, - "train_z": 4.4, - "z_all": 2.55, + "train_conv_roi": 2.397, + "train_z": 4.24, + "z_all": 2.5, "med_stake": 97, - "avg_entry": 0.32, + "avg_entry": 0.33, "train_n": 13, "fwd_win": 60.0, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.399, @@ -46,11 +46,11 @@ "name": "0x72e15978", "train_win": 99.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.97, - "train_z": 17.89, + "train_z": 17.86, "z_all": 29.09, - "med_stake": 424, + "med_stake": 426, "avg_entry": 0.52, - "train_n": 335, + "train_n": 334, "fwd_win": 98.9, "fwd_conv_roi": 1.07, "fwd_n": 190 @@ -107,9 +107,9 @@ "med_stake": 308, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 76.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.878, - "fwd_n": 63 + "fwd_win": 76.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.88, + "fwd_n": 64 }, { "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", @@ -173,7 +173,7 @@ "train_win": 71.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.539, "train_z": 5.17, - "z_all": 13.4, + "z_all": 13.3, "med_stake": 3502, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 349, @@ -213,16 +213,30 @@ "wallet": "0x04be12cdb4f3f0e43bb78c6145f442ed53411aec", "name": "0x04be12cd", "train_win": 69.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.513, - "train_z": 2.99, - "z_all": 2.4, - "med_stake": 453, + "train_conv_roi": 0.509, + "train_z": 2.98, + "z_all": 2.45, + "med_stake": 451, "avg_entry": 0.44, "train_n": 33, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xf82addf4684c494dff04d634bed736d5039f237f", + "name": "0xf82addf4", + "train_win": 95.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.509, + "train_z": 2.92, + "z_all": 2.9, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.64, + "train_n": 20, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x9def39cb6f7f37a9bdd91c444e4c200778576eac", "name": "0x9def39cb", @@ -237,20 +251,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.028, "fwd_n": 169 }, - { - "wallet": "0x5acd5e3552a284932ac6655f8b76379b1497058b", - "name": "0x5acd5e35", - "train_win": 84.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.468, - "train_z": 1.94, - "z_all": 2.06, - "med_stake": 51, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 13, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", @@ -261,9 +261,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 81, - "fwd_win": 76.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.106, - "fwd_n": 181 + "fwd_win": 77.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.11, + "fwd_n": 183 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -293,20 +293,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.389, "fwd_n": 5 }, - { - "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", - "name": "0x88ad3166", - "train_win": 88.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.417, - "train_z": 3.52, - "z_all": 2.79, - "med_stake": 60, - "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 50, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "0x921433c9", @@ -322,15 +308,15 @@ "fwd_n": 194 }, { - "wallet": "0xf82addf4684c494dff04d634bed736d5039f237f", - "name": "0xf82addf4", - "train_win": 90.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.41, - "train_z": 2.35, - "z_all": 2.53, - "med_stake": 100, + "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", + "name": "0x88ad3166", + "train_win": 87.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.413, + "train_z": 3.39, + "z_all": 3.37, + "med_stake": 58, "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 20, + "train_n": 48, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -359,9 +345,9 @@ "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 484, - "fwd_win": 62.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.241, - "fwd_n": 110 + "fwd_win": 58.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, + "fwd_n": 127 }, { "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", @@ -373,9 +359,23 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 71.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.231, - "fwd_n": 214 + "fwd_win": 71.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.233, + "fwd_n": 219 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x1b73480fbf1bc450991d93f687570ccdf6b545d9", + "name": "0x1b73480f", + "train_win": 80.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.352, + "train_z": 2.18, + "z_all": 2.2, + "med_stake": 110, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 31, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -387,9 +387,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 60.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, - "fwd_n": 204 + "fwd_win": 60.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.136, + "fwd_n": 212 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -429,20 +429,20 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 61.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, - "fwd_n": 73 + "fwd_win": 61.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, + "fwd_n": 76 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", "name": "0xf6099a9e", - "train_win": 83.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.306, - "train_z": 4.22, - "z_all": 3.9, - "med_stake": 57, + "train_win": 83.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.308, + "train_z": 4.21, + "z_all": 3.93, + "med_stake": 59, "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 87, + "train_n": 86, "fwd_win": 75.2, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.111, "fwd_n": 262 @@ -453,7 +453,7 @@ "train_win": 71.8, "train_conv_roi": 0.305, "train_z": 5.78, - "z_all": 4.87, + "z_all": 4.95, "med_stake": 398, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 291, @@ -479,9 +479,9 @@ "wallet": "0x8c44dcfe1178aa04dfa44e000f5b89a054027baf", "name": "0x8c44dcfe", "train_win": 80.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.29, - "train_z": 2.03, - "z_all": 4.34, + "train_conv_roi": 0.288, + "train_z": 2.04, + "z_all": 4.29, "med_stake": 123, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 31, @@ -503,20 +503,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.259, "fwd_n": 11 }, - { - "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", - "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 82.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.249, - "train_z": 3.91, - "z_all": 3.93, - "med_stake": 231, - "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 112, - "fwd_win": 73.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 52 - }, { "wallet": "0xed37e7316f6b1b99da8893e0c09cfe0bf1b62f93", "name": "0xed37e731", @@ -531,6 +517,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 1.024, "fwd_n": 17 }, + { + "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", + "name": "0x098eddab", + "train_win": 81.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.239, + "train_z": 3.85, + "z_all": 3.87, + "med_stake": 231, + "avg_entry": 0.68, + "train_n": 112, + "fwd_win": 72.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, + "fwd_n": 51 + }, { "wallet": "0x2d462b29127b919ae4c085e03be44ae7077e3e2d", "name": "0x2d462b29", @@ -541,9 +541,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 64.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.362, - "fwd_n": 155 + "fwd_win": 65.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.356, + "fwd_n": 158 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -565,7 +565,7 @@ "train_win": 67.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.212, "train_z": 3.36, - "z_all": 2.19, + "z_all": 2.16, "med_stake": 800, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 159, @@ -573,20 +573,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x63fd80f1f506134d4787a7519877d0515c205c9c", - "name": "0x63fd80f1", - "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.21, - "train_z": 1.8, - "z_all": 3.61, - "med_stake": 100, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 44, - "fwd_win": 55.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.18, - "fwd_n": 18 - }, { "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", "name": "0x1cff72c8", @@ -619,15 +605,15 @@ "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "name": "0x41558102", "train_win": 85.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.198, + "train_conv_roi": 0.199, "train_z": 4.84, - "z_all": 12.05, + "z_all": 12.06, "med_stake": 348, "avg_entry": 0.75, "train_n": 295, - "fwd_win": 89.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.159, - "fwd_n": 266 + "fwd_win": 88.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.146, + "fwd_n": 275 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -639,9 +625,9 @@ "med_stake": 287, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 65, - "fwd_win": 56.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.047, - "fwd_n": 252 + "fwd_win": 56.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.037, + "fwd_n": 272 }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", @@ -668,8 +654,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, "fwd_win": 74.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.259, - "fwd_n": 171 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.262, + "fwd_n": 175 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -688,13 +674,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.3, + "train_win": 77.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.173, - "train_z": 3.83, - "z_all": 3.96, + "train_z": 3.85, + "z_all": 4.01, "med_stake": 929, "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 247, + "train_n": 248, "fwd_win": 69.8, "fwd_conv_roi": -0.044, "fwd_n": 63 @@ -718,14 +704,14 @@ "name": "0x0c3e55cf", "train_win": 80.8, "train_conv_roi": 0.168, - "train_z": 3.8, - "z_all": 10.24, + "train_z": 3.81, + "z_all": 10.25, "med_stake": 430, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 266, - "fwd_win": 74.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.031, - "fwd_n": 375 + "fwd_win": 74.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.027, + "fwd_n": 385 }, { "wallet": "0x2842d5201b2119d0ec14581fee3c3324bc0c9bab", @@ -747,13 +733,13 @@ "train_win": 70.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.154, "train_z": 3.88, - "z_all": 8.32, + "z_all": 8.33, "med_stake": 165, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 343, - "fwd_win": 66.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.196, - "fwd_n": 110 + "fwd_win": 65.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.202, + "fwd_n": 116 }, { "wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977", @@ -769,20 +755,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", - "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 68.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.15, - "train_z": 2.57, - "z_all": 2.65, - "med_stake": 785, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 112, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x1aeebd7b0eb92037a630004f8eabc0759c36c139", "name": "0x1aeebd7b", @@ -797,13 +769,27 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.063, "fwd_n": 23 }, + { + "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", + "name": "0x7ccec296", + "train_win": 68.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.14, + "train_z": 2.42, + "z_all": 2.64, + "med_stake": 775, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 113, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", "name": "0xed61f86b", "train_win": 73.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.137, "train_z": 3.04, - "z_all": 10.29, + "z_all": 10.3, "med_stake": 1305, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 305, @@ -811,20 +797,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, "fwd_n": 21 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc34b4901be324718c176100e350211d97b199296", - "name": "0xc34b4901", - "train_win": 70.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.137, - "train_z": 2.12, - "z_all": 2.21, - "med_stake": 548, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 100, - "fwd_win": 51.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.005, - "fwd_n": 31 - }, { "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f", "name": "0x3ab5ad27", @@ -856,13 +828,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", - "train_win": 65.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.129, - "train_z": 6.0, + "train_win": 65.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.127, + "train_z": 5.97, "z_all": 2.22, - "med_stake": 189, + "med_stake": 190, "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 697, + "train_n": 700, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 1 @@ -905,9 +877,23 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 344, - "fwd_win": 84.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.117, - "fwd_n": 153 + "fwd_win": 83.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 161 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x0b9353aea88d01ed1912013b435dd39947d0a6cc", + "name": "0x0b9353ae", + "train_win": 81.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.121, + "train_z": 4.19, + "z_all": 2.01, + "med_stake": 178, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 336, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 }, { "wallet": "0xe74b89a7c41f37460a977a542488429bbe09ee88", @@ -923,20 +909,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, "fwd_n": 53 }, - { - "wallet": "0x0b9353aea88d01ed1912013b435dd39947d0a6cc", - "name": "0x0b9353ae", - "train_win": 80.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.117, - "train_z": 4.13, - "z_all": 2.05, - "med_stake": 178, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 335, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", "name": "0x9c5ee2db", @@ -985,7 +957,7 @@ "train_win": 76.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.114, "train_z": 2.43, - "z_all": 2.9, + "z_all": 2.88, "med_stake": 6664, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 225, @@ -1007,20 +979,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, "fwd_n": 142 }, - { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 70.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.107, - "train_z": 3.22, - "z_all": 2.22, - "med_stake": 223, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 377, - "fwd_win": 64.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 227 - }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", "name": "0x8fe9f781", @@ -1035,6 +993,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -1.0, "fwd_n": 5 }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 69.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.106, + "train_z": 3.19, + "z_all": 2.21, + "med_stake": 223, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 376, + "fwd_win": 64.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.129, + "fwd_n": 229 + }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -1059,9 +1031,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 55.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.072, - "fwd_n": 165 + "fwd_win": 56.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.057, + "fwd_n": 168 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1138,7 +1110,7 @@ "name": "0x809205fb", "train_win": 76.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.049, - "train_z": 1.81, + "train_z": 1.89, "z_all": 3.0, "med_stake": 97, "avg_entry": 0.73, @@ -1164,13 +1136,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", "name": "0x0d42cc5f", - "train_win": 67.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.02, - "train_z": 2.25, - "z_all": 6.63, + "train_win": 68.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.023, + "train_z": 2.28, + "z_all": 6.65, "med_stake": 447, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 382, + "avg_entry": 0.64, + "train_n": 381, "fwd_win": 71.9, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, "fwd_n": 57 @@ -1206,13 +1178,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", "name": "0xe1a532a9", - "train_win": 70.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.01, + "train_win": 69.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.014, "train_z": 2.91, - "z_all": 3.35, + "z_all": 3.32, "med_stake": 130, "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 368, + "train_n": 369, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index b4eb8442..a5b769c2 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -7,31 +7,31 @@ "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "name": "LSB1", "class": "volume", - "floor": 266.32 + "floor": 267.75 }, { "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", "name": "imwalkinghere", "class": "volume", - "floor": 122.48 + "floor": 122.12 }, { "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "name": "Kruto2027", "class": "volume", - "floor": 125.91 + "floor": 125.61 }, { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 44.91 + "floor": 44.64 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "class": "volume", - "floor": 408.5 + "floor": 457.26 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", @@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 327.43 + "floor": 327.04 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 62311950..627e7e72 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

41 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-11 14:51

+

41 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-12 10:58

Validated wallets
41
-
Median z
4.6
-
Median OOS z
3.2
-
Value / longshot
29
+
Median z
4.5
+
Median OOS z
3.1
+
Value / longshot
28
Favorite-rider
7
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.