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HANDOFF rev 4: full rewrite for session handoff — critical path is the wrap + executor port
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
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-173
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# Session handoff — 2026-07-08 (rev 3: books aligned, Set E live, fresh $1k)
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# Session handoff — 2026-07-10 (rev 4: real money one step from live)
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Self-contained pickup for a fresh session (human or AI). Read
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[README.md](README.md) gotchas 1–15, [FINDINGS.md](FINDINGS.md) (especially
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the three 2026-07-08 sections at the end), and [LIVE_ROLLOUT.md](LIVE_ROLLOUT.md).
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The repo is authoritative; project memory has deeper history.
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[README.md](README.md) gotchas 1–15, [FINDINGS.md](FINDINGS.md) (the
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2026-07-08 sections at the end), [ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md](ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md),
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and [LIVE_ROLLOUT.md](LIVE_ROLLOUT.md). The repo is authoritative.
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## Where things stand (all green)
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## THE CRITICAL PATH — finish live placement (one wrap + one port)
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- **Live paper bot**: Fly.io `wwf-copybot`, region `arn` (Stockholm), push
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mode, ONE machine. Following **Set E** (7 volume wallets): LSB1,
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imwalkinghere, Kruto2027, 0xbadaf319, gkmgkldfmg, AIcAIc, 1kto1m.
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`flyctl logs --app wwf-copybot`.
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- **The book is a fresh $1,000, reset 2026-07-08 ~20:45 UTC** — this is the
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CALIBRATION EXPERIMENT: measure the live-to-backtest ratio for Set E with
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every fix live from day one; that ratio (not the replay %) sizes real money.
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Old book (Jun 25 → Jul 8, +$229.79) is in git history +
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`archive/copybot_fills.pre-reset-2026-07-08.jsonl`.
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- **The three books agree by construction** (2026-07-08 alignment work):
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same W/L/R/S taxonomy (win% = held-to-resolution only), same
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sold-vs-redeem price discriminator (redeem prints exactly the payout), same
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pinned floors, same follow set. Row-level cross-check bot↔backtest: 7/9
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exact, 0 absent, 2 legit execution diffs. Sharps table reproduces PM's
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per-position books to the dollar; PM's LEADERBOARD is the biased number.
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- **Dashboards**: [jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading) =
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paper book + backtest + sharps; [jaxperro.com/live](https://jaxperro.com/live)
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= REAL MONEY page (NOT STARTED until Phase 2). Shared renderer:
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`jaxperro/trading/copybot-section.js`. `?botFeed=`/`?rmFeed=` query params
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override feeds for local testing.
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- **Watchdog live (2026-07-08)**: Fly `/health` check auto-restarts a dark
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machine; GH Actions `watchdog.yml` probes from GitHub's infra and pings
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Discord after 3 failed probes. `copytrade.py` now lives at repo root
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(archive/ is 100% retired code again).
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- **Daily pipeline** (Mac launchd 08:00, fires on wake — typically ~10:00,
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caffeinate-wrapped)
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appends one live-vs-model row/day to `live/history/calibration.csv` and
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re-derives everything under the new rules: entries cursors now invalidate
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daily, `_open_split` folds by the `redeemable` flag, `rtally` splits SOLD.
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- **Backtest**: `portfolio.py` takes `--bank` (backtest.json `"bank"`).
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Published feed stays at $1,000 to match the paper book. $500 run: +2728%
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(small banks compound faster — their-bet ceilings bind later).
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The real-money bot (`wwf-copybot-live`, armed, $24.73) cannot place yet.
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Root-cause chain, every link PROVEN 2026-07-09/10:
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## LIVE PLACEMENT — root cause SOLVED, one user action + one port remain
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1. First two qualifying signals CRASHED the bot inside the unguarded live
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order path (Fly events: exit_code=1 at 21:21:55Z and 21:53:35Z, seconds
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after each signal); boot baseline then marked the fresh trades seen.
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ALL FIXED: executor never raises, per-wallet poll guard, baseline
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exempts trades younger than the stale window.
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2. **py-clob-client is ARCHIVED** (May 2026) — the CLOB rejects its orders
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('invalid order version') globally. Reads/auth still work; placement is
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dead for everyone on it. No newer PyPI release exists.
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3. Successor: **Polymarket/py-sdk** (`pip install --pre polymarket-client`,
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`SecureClient`). Proven working for us tonight: auth ✓, the signer's
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**Deposit Wallet deployed: `0x455e252e45Ee46d6C4cc1c8fAdD3899d68f245a1`** ✓,
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gasless relayer transactions execute ✓ (real txs: 0x935be727…,
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0x1044d3c7…), `setup_trading_approvals()` ✓ (max-uint on all spenders),
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order FORMAT accepted by the exchange ✓.
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4. **Sole remaining gap: the wrap.** The user's $24.73 sits SAFE as native
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USDC at the deposit wallet (his key controls it). The 2026 exchange
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trades a wrapped-collateral token (`0xC011a7…`; wraps native USDC; UI
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flows wrap on deposit — our raw transfer bypassed it), and the CLOB's
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balance view counts ONLY that token → orders reject with 'balance: 0'.
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Attempted: periphery `0x93070a…`.wrap(asset,to,amount) via gasless batch
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→ 'batch would revert' (likely caller-gated). Neg-risk adapter ruled out.
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Why the real-money bot placed nothing (2026-07-09/10 investigation, every
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link proven): (1) the first two qualifying signals CRASHED the bot inside
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the unguarded live order path (machine events: exit_code=1 at 21:21:55 and
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21:53:35, seconds after each signal) and boot-baseline then marked the
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fresh trades seen — both bugs FIXED (executor never raises; poll guard;
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baseline exempts trades younger than the stale window). (2) With crashes
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fixed, the probe exposed the real wall: **py-clob-client is ARCHIVED** and
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the CLOB rejects its orders ('invalid order version') — reads/auth still
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work, placement is dead for everyone on the old client. (3) The successor
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is **Polymarket/py-sdk** (`pip install --pre polymarket-client`,
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SecureClient). (4) Under it, the account's legacy proxy (0xbb2aC6b8…) is
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refused as maker ('use the deposit wallet flow'); bootstrap
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(host/wallet_bootstrap.py) minted a Builder API key with existing auth and
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DEPLOYED the signer's Deposit Wallet:
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**0x455e252e45Ee46d6C4cc1c8fAdD3899d68f245a1**.
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**Next session, in order (do NOT guess with live funds):**
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1. Read **Polymarket/ts-sdk** (same unified family) for the deposit-wallet
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wrap/deposit implementation — it contains the exact supported call.
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Also check docs.polymarket.com's new wallet/collateral pages.
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2. Replicate that one call via `client.execute_transaction` (the gasless
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path is proven). Success = `get_balance_allowance` shows ~$24.73.
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3. Port `LedgerLiveExecutor` to the new SDK: `SecureClient.create(
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private_key=…)` (wallet auto-resolves; NO api_key needed at runtime once
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approvals exist), BUY = `place_market_order(token_id, side="BUY",
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amount=<USD>, order_type="FAK")`, SELL = `shares=<n>`; parse the result
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for filled shares/price; keep py-clob-client temporarily for reads.
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Repoint the 1.4 cash anchor at the deposit wallet's collateral view —
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the live bot currently alarms `CASH≠CHAIN +24.73` because the anchor
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still reads the emptied legacy proxy (expected, harmless).
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4. `pip` add `polymarket-client` (--pre) to fly.Dockerfile, deploy, re-run
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`host/order_probe_v2.py` (contains the ENTIRE working onboarding
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sequence) until a $5 round trip fills, then run LIVE_ROLLOUT Phase 4 on
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the first organic fill.
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5. Cleanup: probe runs minted several Builder API keys —
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`fetch_builder_api_keys` / revoke extras.
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Remaining — WRAP STEP ONLY (status 2026-07-10 early AM): the $24.73 sits
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SAFE as native USDC at the deposit wallet (user's key controls it;
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recoverable/transferable at any time). Proven working tonight via probes:
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auth ✓, gasless execution ✓ (two real relayer txs: USDC approval
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0x1044d3c7…, earlier 0x935be727…), setup_trading_approvals ✓ (max-uint on
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all spenders), order FORMAT accepted ✓. The one remaining gap: the
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exchange's balance view counts only the COLLATERAL token
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(0xC011a7… wraps native USDC; UI flows wrap on deposit; our raw transfer
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bypassed it). Attempted: public wrapper periphery 0x93070a…
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wrap(asset,to,amount) via gasless batch → 'batch would revert' (likely
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caller-role-gated); neg-risk adapter ruled out (its mints are redeem
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change). NEXT SESSION (do NOT guess with live funds): read the ts-sdk's
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deposit/wrap implementation for deposit wallets (Polymarket/ts-sdk — same
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unified family, will contain the exact supported call), replicate via
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execute_transaction, THEN port LedgerLiveExecutor to the new SDK
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(place_market_order: BUY amount=$USD / SELL shares=, FAK; construct
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SecureClient(private_key) — wallet resolves, no api_key needed at runtime
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once approvals exist), add polymarket-client to fly.Dockerfile, re-probe
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(host/order_probe_v2.py — contains the full working onboarding sequence),
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re-arm. CLEANUP: several builder API keys were minted by probe runs —
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fetch_builder_api_keys/revoke the extras. The armed live bot remains
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harmless (ok:False + honest missed rows on every attempt).
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Meanwhile the armed live bot is harmless-by-construction: every attempt
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returns ok:False and records an honest missed row.
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## Queued next-session work (in value order)
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## System state (all healthy, 2026-07-10 00:47Z)
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0. **MORNING FORENSICS — paper-book drift −11.32 (alarm intentionally red).**
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The clobber bug is FIXED (settled records archive to token#ts keys on
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re-entry; two vanished records recovered from state git history and
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restored). What remains: with truth restored, drift reads −11.32 — a
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separate cash-outflow-without-ledger-counterpart accumulated during
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2026-07-09's 27-copy day. Suspect classes: sell fills drained against
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already-settled records (sold_proceeds mutated post-pnl counts nowhere),
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settle math on re-entered tokens, trim flows. Method: replay
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copybot_fills.jsonl + state-history settles against the invariant
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term-by-term until the residual attributes. The fills ledger now has
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per-token BUY lines + book snapshots; state history is committed every
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few minutes. LIVE BOOK UNAFFECTED (0 trades, drift 0.00) and protected
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by the clobber fix before its first re-entry.
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- **Paper bot** (`wwf-copybot`, push mode): Set E, fresh $1,000 book reset
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2026-07-08 20:45Z. **Day 1½: realized +$1,107.57, 36 copies, 6 open,
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drift CLEAN** (the −11.32 forensics closed at 0.00 — see below).
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Biggest single win: mirrored Kruto's 3¢→48¢ Hive scalp for +$722.
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- **Live bot** (`wwf-copybot-live`, poll 60s): armed via LIVE_CONFIRM,
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$24.73 book, 0 trades (see critical path), Discord pings wired
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(DISCORD_WEBHOOK secret), auto_redeem off. Disarm:
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`flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM` or `flyctl apps stop`.
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- **Set E** (both books + backtest): LSB1, imwalkinghere, Kruto2027,
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0xbadaf319, gkmgkldfmg, AIcAIc, 1kto1m — pinned floors, identical rules
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(min_price 0.01 everywhere since 2026-07-09 18:05Z, user-approved).
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- **Dashboards**: jaxperro.com/trading (paper+backtest+sharps),
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jaxperro.com/live (real money). Shared renderer
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jaxperro/trading/copybot-section.js; `?botFeed=`/`?rmFeed=` overrides.
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- **Watchdog**: Fly /health check (paper app) + GH Actions watchdog.yml →
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Discord. NOTE: the live app has NO watchdog (poll mode, no HTTP) —
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liveness = flyctl logs + feed freshness; wire one before raising caps.
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- **Daily pipeline**: Mac launchd 08:00 + pmset RTC wake 07:58 +
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caffeinate; appends live-vs-model calibration.csv row daily.
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1. **Exact-res_t migration**: plan agreed 2026-07-08 — execute
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[ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md](ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md) phase by phase
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(0: chain sweep backfill → 1: shadow audit → 2: validate_timing →
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3: portfolio → 4: selection+floors → 5: trust simplification LAST).
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One phase per session, before/after diffs, never coupled with
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follow-set changes.
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2. **Empirical fill model**: every copy now logs a `book` snapshot (spread +
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5c depth) to the fills ledger; once a few weeks accumulate, fit slippage
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vs stake/depth and replace portfolio.py's flat SLIP haircut; add a depth
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gate before real-money sizing.
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3. **Funding-cluster tracer port** to Etherscan logs (Alchemy free tier now
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caps getLogs at 10 blocks — insider.py's ring detection is degraded
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until then).
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## Completed 2026-07-09 (the honesty & detection sprint)
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## Watch list (the standing question: does Set E hold up?)
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- **Fill-split merging**: same-token BUY clips ≤120s apart merge into the
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bet the sharp actually made before the floor gate (gkmg's $612 MOUZ entry
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read as 3×$204 sub-floor clips; he sold +60% in 5 min). Both books.
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- **Missed-ledger truth**: missed bets settle at the sharp's EXIT when they
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sold pre-resolution (Kruto Hive miss = honest +$75 counterfactual on $5);
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settled won/lost rows get one exit-print re-check (fast-resolve race);
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every row relabeled with its diagnosed cause; the two silent follow-path
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exits (no-ask book, order rejection) now record misses.
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- **Clobber fix + drift forensics CLOSED**: re-entry on a settled token
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archives (token#ts keys) instead of overwriting; three vanished records
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reconstructed from fills-ledger/state-history; paper drift 0.00.
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- **Order-book snapshots** (`book` field) logged per copy → empirical fill
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model later. **payouts.resolution_time(cond)** wired (Etherscan V2,
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exact on-chain res_t; metadata was 29h wrong on the test market).
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- **min_price parity** 0.05→0.01 on the live book (user-approved; the band
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— not detection — blocked the 16x Hive copy).
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- **0xbadaf319** — 2026-07-08 evening revealed his structure: PAIRED YES+NO
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clips ($6–37 each, sums ≈ $1.00) = two-sided arb/merge flow, not
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directional conviction. Copying one leg of a hedge is a bet HE never took;
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his replay P&L rode the larger leg of pairs. Moves to the TOP of the
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demotion watch list — judge on forward copies, not his account P&L.
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- **AIcAIc** — held-win only 42%; his edge is sell-timing (most lag-fragile
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class). Second demotion candidate.
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- **1kto1m** (z=2.4) and **gkmgkldfmg** (z=2.05) — near the gate floor;
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strong month, shallow statistical edge.
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- Re-ranking is cheap: the per-wallet replay harness pattern is in FINDINGS
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("Aligning the three books"); `python3 live/portfolio.py --wallets 0x…
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--days 30 --out /tmp/w.json` per candidate, then combined-set runs.
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- Rejected-with-evidence (don't re-add without new facts): oliman2 (true
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lifetime ~$19k), leegunner (negative to copy), 0xb0E43B/ArbTraderRookie
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(refund harvesters — real edge, uncopyable margins), lma0o0o0o (negative in
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the shared book), Winnertraders (6.6-day capital locks).
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## Queued work (after the critical path)
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## Real-money worker — ARMED AND LIVE (2026-07-09 ~04:37 UTC)
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1. ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md phases 0→5 (chain-sweep res_t backfill → shadow
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audit → consumer flips → trust.py simplification LAST).
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2. Empirical fill model from the accumulating book snapshots; depth gate
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before real-money sizing.
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3. Funding-cluster tracer port to Etherscan logs (Alchemy free tier caps
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getLogs at 10 blocks).
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4. Live-app watchdog (no /health in poll mode).
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5. Decide the leftover **$32 on polymarket.us** (user's first deposit,
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wrong venue — withdraw or abandon).
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`wwf-copybot-live` is trading REAL MONEY: $24.73 book, Set E, $5 stakes,
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rule-0.6 caps ($5/trade · $25/day · $30 exposure), poll mode 60s, own state
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`copybot_state.live.json`, feed `live/copybot_live_real.json` →
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jaxperro.com/live. Armed via LIVE_CONFIRM env (user-typed phrase; unset to
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disarm at next boot; `flyctl apps stop wwf-copybot-live` = instant stop).
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auto_redeem OFF (no POL gas) — after a WIN, redeem manually in the UI;
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CASH≠CHAIN nags until done. Discord pings per placement/exit/settle via
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DISCORD_WEBHOOK secret. Phase 4 (supervised first fill checklist in
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LIVE_ROLLOUT) runs when the first conviction signal lands — zero live
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trades so far; fill-split merging (see below) shipped 2026-07-09 evening
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after 13h of sub-floor-clip skips. No watchdog on the live app yet (poll
|
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mode, no HTTP) — liveness = flyctl logs + feed freshness.
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## Watch list (does Set E hold up?)
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## Venue fork — RESOLVED 2026-07-09 (user funded polymarket.com)
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- **0xbadaf319** — two-sided arb/merge clips, not directional conviction;
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TOP demotion candidate; judge on forward copies.
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- **AIcAIc** — 42% held-win; sell-timing edge (lag-fragile). Second.
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- **1kto1m** (z=2.4), **gkmgkldfmg** (z=2.05) — near the gate floor.
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- Rejected-with-evidence (don't re-add): oliman2 (true lifetime ~$19k, not
|
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PM's $112k), leegunner (negative to copy), 0xb0E43B/ArbTraderRookie
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(refund harvesters), lma0o0o0o (negative in shared book), Winnertraders
|
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(6.6-day locks).
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The first deposit landed on polymarket.us by mistake (off-chain venue, no
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keys — incompatible with the stack; $32 still sits there, user may withdraw).
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User then funded a polymarket.com account ($24.73 after fees) and the live
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worker armed against it. Residual security to-dos: revoke the polymarket.us
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API key f03d9eb5… (secret appeared in a chat screenshot) and rotate the
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Discord webhook committed to this repo's history pre-2026-07-09.
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## User to-dos (security)
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## Next: Phase 2 — funding (USER ONLY)
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Phase 1 is 8/8 complete (LIVE_ROLLOUT.md). Before funding, the user should
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decide the stranding tolerance explicitly: real money turns the primary risk
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from P&L into the ACCOUNT (US person routing orders via Stockholm through the
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geoblock — a frozen wallet is a different loss category than a losing bet).
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Caps stay $5/trade · $25/day · $30 exposure until Phase 6. Then Phase 3
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preflight (`preflight_live.py`) → Phase 4 supervised first fill → Phase 5
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edge-case matrix. The typed-phrase interlock is the human checkpoint — never
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automated.
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## Standing to-dos (user-only or external)
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||||
|
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- **None open.** Alchemy key ROTATED 2026-07-08: old app "Jax's First App"
|
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(key `…OdWgOi`, the one leaked to public git history) deleted; new app
|
||||
`wwf-rpc-2026-07` (key `…w0BxV5`) wired into gitignored `config.json` +
|
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the `ALCHEMY_RPC_URL` Fly secret. Verified: old key → HTTP 401 (the key
|
||||
in git history is now dead, so no history rewrite needed), new key serves
|
||||
Polygon, bot rebooted with settle-fallback ON and made a live copy, Notify
|
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webhook `wh_blf4qjjvfdbqs9mc` survived (app-delete doesn't touch Notify
|
||||
resources) — 7 addresses in sync. Railway project deleted (purges 07-10).
|
||||
- Revoke the polymarket.us API key `f03d9eb5…` (secret appeared in a chat
|
||||
screenshot) — if not already done.
|
||||
- Rotate the Discord webhook that was committed to this repo's history
|
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pre-2026-07-09 (spam-risk only).
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## Operational quick-reference
|
||||
|
||||
- **Change the follow set**: edit `live/copybot.paper.json` wallets →
|
||||
`./live/deploy_bot.sh` (validates → pins floors → syncs Alchemy webhook →
|
||||
restarts Fly → confirms banner). Keep `backtest.json` mirrored.
|
||||
- **State surgery (reset/repair the book)**: `flyctl machine stop` FIRST,
|
||||
push the new state, `flyctl apps restart`, then VERIFY the first heartbeat
|
||||
shows the book you wrote (gotcha 15: the bot's memory wins conflicts by
|
||||
design, and a boot clone can read a stale GitHub replica for a few seconds).
|
||||
- Never 2 Fly machines (`flyctl scale count 1`) — one book, one writer.
|
||||
- Cache is single-writer; don't run cache-touching scripts during the daily
|
||||
pipeline or a regen. Three cursors per wallet (gotcha 12).
|
||||
- Bot commits its own state/feed — `git pull --rebase --autostash` before
|
||||
pushing. Image changes (fly.Dockerfile, host/) need
|
||||
`flyctl deploy --remote-only`; code/config changes just push + restart.
|
||||
- Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json → `./live/deploy_bot.sh`;
|
||||
keep backtest.json mirrored.
|
||||
- State surgery: `flyctl machine stop` FIRST → edit → push →
|
||||
`flyctl apps restart` → VERIFY the first heartbeat (gotcha 15; bot memory
|
||||
wins conflicts; boot clones can read a stale GitHub replica briefly).
|
||||
- Never 2 Fly machines per app (`flyctl scale count 1`).
|
||||
- Cache single-writer; three cursors per wallet (gotcha 12).
|
||||
- Bot commits its own state/feed — `git pull --rebase --autostash` first.
|
||||
- Image changes (fly.Dockerfile, host/) → `flyctl deploy --remote-only`;
|
||||
code/config → push + restart. Live app config = fly.live.toml.
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user