From 34d20823de3abf04c7f891aed09e1996e90c7221 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 21:21:13 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- history/reconcile.csv | 1 + live/conviction_wallets.json | 200 ++-- live/dashboard.html | 14 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow_missed.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_live_replica.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_missed.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1730 ++++++++++++++--------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 518 ++++----- 10 files changed, 1182 insertions(+), 1291 deletions(-) diff --git a/history/reconcile.csv b/history/reconcile.csv index 95af065a..153cb73b 100644 --- a/history/reconcile.csv +++ b/history/reconcile.csv @@ -3,3 +3,4 @@ date,live_bt_ev,live_fill_gap,live_filled_ev,live_filled_n,live_missed_ev,live_m 2026-07-27,4030,43,-248,22,1839,56,-27.24,-300,3,2739,101,182,4030,615,1054,41,237,48,-300,3,3039,90,200.53 2026-07-28,4443,43,-248,22,1908,68,-27.31,-241,4,3024,111,205,4443,617,996,46,543,60,-300,3,3204,96,170.53 2026-07-29,5143,-12,-58,29,2504,84,-27.31,-341,5,3038,139,257,5143,613,1375,75,1062,71,-249,9,2955,102,44.11 +2026-07-30,4943,-12,-58,29,2318,87,-27.31,-273,7,2956,172,295,4943,657,1519,79,702,77,-247,14,2969,125,82.87 diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 270aebae..7d06ee2e 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -37,9 +37,9 @@ "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 96.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.063, - "fwd_n": 32 + "fwd_win": 97.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.064, + "fwd_n": 33 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", @@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ "med_stake": 474, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 322, - "fwd_win": 99.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.075, - "fwd_n": 320 + "fwd_win": 98.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.055, + "fwd_n": 334 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -135,9 +135,9 @@ "med_stake": 308, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 76.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.883, - "fwd_n": 73 + "fwd_win": 77.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.884, + "fwd_n": 74 }, { "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", @@ -282,16 +282,16 @@ { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", - "train_win": 76.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.45, - "train_z": 3.55, - "z_all": 4.53, - "med_stake": 68, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 82, + "train_win": 77.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.454, + "train_z": 3.67, + "z_all": 4.52, + "med_stake": 67, + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 83, "fwd_win": 79.5, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 342 + "fwd_n": 347 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -331,9 +331,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 61.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.155, - "fwd_n": 265 + "fwd_win": 60.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.157, + "fwd_n": 278 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -367,8 +367,8 @@ "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.378, - "train_z": 7.97, + "train_conv_roi": 0.379, + "train_z": 7.98, "z_all": 14.58, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, @@ -415,9 +415,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 70.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.181, - "fwd_n": 283 + "fwd_win": 69.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.179, + "fwd_n": 286 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -439,7 +439,7 @@ "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.09, + "z_all": 4.08, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -471,9 +471,9 @@ "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 54.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.286, - "fwd_n": 300 + "fwd_win": 54.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.273, + "fwd_n": 306 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", @@ -481,7 +481,7 @@ "train_win": 83.3, "train_conv_roi": 0.299, "train_z": 4.09, - "z_all": 3.99, + "z_all": 4.1, "med_stake": 60, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 84, @@ -537,7 +537,7 @@ "train_win": 89.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.271, "train_z": 3.09, - "z_all": 2.22, + "z_all": 2.21, "med_stake": 131, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 48, @@ -591,15 +591,15 @@ "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", "train_win": 81.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.23, - "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 3.88, - "med_stake": 231, + "train_conv_roi": 0.228, + "train_z": 3.74, + "z_all": 3.99, + "med_stake": 221, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 112, - "fwd_win": 74.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 66 + "fwd_win": 73.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 67 }, { "wallet": "0x1f2ea878eece1493f887f6ad99fd41cbe68a1730", @@ -625,9 +625,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 67.0, + "fwd_win": 67.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.315, - "fwd_n": 224 + "fwd_n": 225 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -667,9 +667,9 @@ "med_stake": 220, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 75.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.14, - "fwd_n": 54 + "fwd_win": 76.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.143, + "fwd_n": 55 }, { "wallet": "0xe0b311527157158117b34bb5841dcb45602c4132", @@ -709,9 +709,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 88.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.133, - "fwd_n": 424 + "fwd_win": 87.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.127, + "fwd_n": 439 }, { "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", @@ -719,7 +719,7 @@ "train_win": 65.8, "train_conv_roi": 0.196, "train_z": 3.24, - "z_all": 2.63, + "z_all": 2.74, "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 225, @@ -739,7 +739,7 @@ "train_n": 234, "fwd_win": 72.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.037, - "fwd_n": 578 + "fwd_n": 584 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -794,8 +794,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 53, "fwd_win": 50.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.305, - "fwd_n": 16 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.221, + "fwd_n": 18 }, { "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", @@ -811,6 +811,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.022, "fwd_n": 225 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", + "name": "0xc684828f", + "train_win": 77.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.171, + "train_z": 3.85, + "z_all": 4.2, + "med_stake": 929, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 249, + "fwd_win": 70.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.033, + "fwd_n": 97 + }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", "name": "0xa6a67037", @@ -825,20 +839,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.403, "fwd_n": 68 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", - "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.17, - "train_z": 3.81, - "z_all": 4.21, - "med_stake": 938, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 248, - "fwd_win": 70.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.033, - "fwd_n": 97 - }, { "wallet": "0x84571f1bf97a5c710cbe51daff2dd4556cc887fd", "name": "0x84571f1b", @@ -859,7 +859,7 @@ "train_win": 68.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.164, "train_z": 4.95, - "z_all": 4.56, + "z_all": 4.55, "med_stake": 133, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 444, @@ -943,7 +943,7 @@ "train_win": 67.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.145, "train_z": 6.76, - "z_all": 2.43, + "z_all": 2.46, "med_stake": 188, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 731, @@ -961,18 +961,18 @@ "med_stake": 168, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 337, - "fwd_win": 66.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.187, - "fwd_n": 163 + "fwd_win": 67.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.214, + "fwd_n": 169 }, { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", "name": "0xed61f86b", "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.136, - "train_z": 3.03, - "z_all": 10.29, - "med_stake": 1315, + "train_conv_roi": 0.137, + "train_z": 3.04, + "z_all": 10.27, + "med_stake": 1305, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 305, "fwd_win": 85.7, @@ -1045,9 +1045,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 81.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.132, - "fwd_n": 289 + "fwd_win": 81.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.139, + "fwd_n": 305 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1097,13 +1097,13 @@ "train_win": 65.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.118, "train_z": 2.76, - "z_all": 2.68, + "z_all": 2.67, "med_stake": 1410, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 255, - "fwd_win": 62.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.285, - "fwd_n": 192 + "fwd_win": 61.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.279, + "fwd_n": 194 }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", @@ -1157,9 +1157,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 73.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.104, - "fwd_n": 181 + "fwd_win": 73.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, + "fwd_n": 187 }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", @@ -1227,9 +1227,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 58.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.04, - "fwd_n": 205 + "fwd_win": 57.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.054, + "fwd_n": 208 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1245,20 +1245,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, "fwd_n": 77 }, - { - "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", - "name": "0x60a92c86", - "train_win": 77.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.098, - "train_z": 2.02, - "z_all": 2.0, - "med_stake": 5714, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 122, - "fwd_win": 70.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.001, - "fwd_n": 67 - }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1325,9 +1311,9 @@ "med_stake": 622, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 180, - "fwd_win": 67.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, - "fwd_n": 100 + "fwd_win": 67.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.017, + "fwd_n": 101 }, { "wallet": "0x87909a89ee551c8616e5bff9089c81545bfd010b", @@ -1437,9 +1423,9 @@ "med_stake": 438, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 343, - "fwd_win": 71.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.13, - "fwd_n": 149 + "fwd_win": 71.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.134, + "fwd_n": 158 }, { "wallet": "0x16abe608bee11347334a2da15b96c185ee8e2f10", @@ -1461,7 +1447,7 @@ "train_win": 75.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.016, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.2, + "z_all": 2.22, "med_stake": 3442, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 361, diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 8e62c423..6f5f71e7 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

63 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-29 16:27

+

55 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-30 21:21

-
Validated wallets
63
-
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.2
-
Value / longshot
47
-
Favorite-rider
6
+
Validated wallets
55
+
Median z
4.5
+
Median OOS z
3.4
+
Value / longshot
41
+
Favorite-rider
7
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.