diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index b77efed1..b529bc68 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -100,3 +100,9 @@
 {"ts": 1784919487.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784919818.6, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784920153.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920363.3, "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211", "their_size": 690.02, "their_prev": 1145.91, "frac": 0.6022, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.57, "shares_held": 203.79, "cost_held": 126.38, "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?", "outcome": "Down", "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920384.4, "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211", "their_size": 455.89, "their_prev": 455.8900000000001, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.61, "shares_held": 203.79, "cost_held": 126.38, "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?", "outcome": "Down", "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920490.5, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920495.9, "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.67, "shares_held": 203.79, "cost_held": 126.38, "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?", "outcome": "Down", "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920829.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1784920831.4, "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.68, "shares_held": 203.79, "cost_held": 126.38, "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?", "outcome": "Down", "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index fc48df59..bfc42c58 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,9 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783541947.246319,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0x298918fe1343816de1daff3eb43cc4c6d40428bc4210286a0db9c3fccc77c052",
-    "0x8bef527e8f655614ebce6d2fe693411c2033a32741a91346967cde447d204c4e",
-    "0xcf421fdc762d6e9d3205daedf1b8bc1cce2767a1139ee952699c66dcd4fd5b86",
     "0x62b1ec749ae359b0d513cbb645ce81afd0b725ea41b42da7e6419a7fb4786eaa",
     "0xe8a1265d6de0e00d5bb0b40310405f1f124fcd381ae6bf5b8bf57b94f8be936c",
     "0x9f24215745cd830903e8ba814a3002239696f66f87ce77f341e9b9165549eeca",
@@ -5000,7 +4997,10 @@
     "0x77ecdfe9054978ff0f7eef4a2c29331de97bc61880f1a5bf18b69f64e5148391",
     "0xc576929d1baf372ca7b01bf73465ec48e1d3e36d84b4712fb90c22027a9a0097",
     "0xa9c5901d70a56d5c523f4ca729b8d99ebdd85b6ca4d4d13807ee0af9a4164fbf",
-    "0x592c09be34aed703a22b72b0f5f3bd92db0d37c30413153a9d5dba4e35e99dff"
+    "0x592c09be34aed703a22b72b0f5f3bd92db0d37c30413153a9d5dba4e35e99dff",
+    "0x251a50becf26a0da2ec9bfa1a50e43422d9f3561075945b3c77e0f35f604175a",
+    "0x952f161ae7f1c0474712a5e7934b54c95637970060de0e1e3012673eaeb8cb75",
+    "0x0d4a258c3939582b3758db7dac7439a753abf38d370e9d2ed0f8877d1520727a"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -7392,7 +7392,8 @@
       "78288582157994306934508674396206099772775859795899820495422208721473710134686": 0.0,
       "9287176329658086254229244038643916434031076655796160064021171776320847465234": 0.0,
       "92254305598823024250960238040448037686318555998337518675099218136944109207567": 0.0,
-      "88766089494926476951601164418158489633153099045978724875702186558036791873991": 0.0
+      "88766089494926476951601164418158489633153099045978724875702186558036791873991": 0.0,
+      "47853212693868832666141123366554974474096365170465686824897708316566003379868": 0.0
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     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
       "100468734153214358233990589631364606641061328246006529504204481849428608539045": 5322.2848,
@@ -8307,7 +8308,7 @@
       "101946995797410619447280728939434901491579999373186976460878634085571934521423": 0.0,
       "41280738325832192366820609767968905496399103307083568825188630965658856693531": 0.0,
       "64291196600807803734247210507254672884365528042546786320856130220969822748679": 0.0,
-      "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": 1145.91
+      "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": 0.0
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     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": {
       "110171125648822283483807302788459801078553019343858878759755941501211839974747": 14999.9909,
@@ -18234,8 +18235,8 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3279.700634625008,
-  "feed_sig": "ea4e9d8e3757d420a4c082253f0fa63d",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784920018.4359925,
+  "feed_sig": "99756d86d57d3629a9b534de0030f132",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784920970.646707,
   "missed": [
     {
       "ts": 1783590977,
@@ -20863,9 +20864,9 @@
       "price": 0.52,
       "stake": 110.32,
       "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a",
-      "status": "open",
-      "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null,
+      "status": "lost",
+      "pnl": -111.91,
+      "settled": 1784921034,
       "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
     },
     {
@@ -21359,6 +21360,7 @@
     "59431170399170756403869949971919672748369536534274541894295709999455639039278",
     "59549730440063526432295370176021061543073073917254086620754141435999091752561",
     "59814702503951117117533338983087503864572856149832749836846296677864922375054",
+    "59897538818511388395837353956348733443549489215526050996003195337735114443892",
     "61416046157130336387192484480061885588870627378508203129264340299665845312979",
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     "6304857255034472143843057320181266626050135996719056413343961373492790660305",
@@ -21409,17 +21411,18 @@
     "111238155193029214626119372717509509454868187612257655146390848111901958320265": 1,
     "54808825071623730922593344072571837691813951745707044026991588993889799442913": 1,
     "45276939554340428771698865022604030782253660716041002232668611227463504055173": 1,
-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 92,
-    "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978": 1
+    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 94,
+    "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978": 1,
+    "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211": 2
   },
   "trade_cursor": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1784882427,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784919594,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784920306,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1784886999,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1784904358,
-    "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784920114,
+    "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784920384,
     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": 1784916631,
     "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90": 1784865762
   },
@@ -22964,6 +22967,96 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920363.3,
+      "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+      "their_size": 690.02,
+      "their_prev": 1145.91,
+      "frac": 0.6022,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.57,
+      "shares_held": 203.79,
+      "cost_held": 126.38,
+      "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+      "outcome": "Down",
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920384.4,
+      "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+      "their_size": 455.89,
+      "their_prev": 455.8900000000001,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.61,
+      "shares_held": 203.79,
+      "cost_held": 126.38,
+      "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+      "outcome": "Down",
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920490.5,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.87,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920495.9,
+      "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.67,
+      "shares_held": 203.79,
+      "cost_held": 126.38,
+      "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+      "outcome": "Down",
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920829.1,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.87,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784920831.4,
+      "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.68,
+      "shares_held": 203.79,
+      "cost_held": 126.38,
+      "title": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?",
+      "outcome": "Down",
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index a113e74c..af99e16d 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -2130,6 +2130,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1784682914,
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "token": "66006680389192620317816056197058298603060937483253191311974086024874814208778",
+   "cond": "0x78322c43b6c76c3f29208ae75bf81d455c3b3b803c891a8945e25fe4376a3a8e",
+   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.52,
+   "stake": 110.32,
+   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a",
+   "status": "lost",
+   "pnl": -111.91,
+   "settled": 1784921034,
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1784914783,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2796,21 +2811,6 @@
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.7583
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784682914,
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "token": "66006680389192620317816056197058298603060937483253191311974086024874814208778",
-   "cond": "0x78322c43b6c76c3f29208ae75bf81d455c3b3b803c891a8945e25fe4376a3a8e",
-   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.52,
-   "stake": 110.32,
-   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784663345,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3082,7 +3082,7 @@
    "exit_price": 0.4991
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 96597.92,
+ "missed_pnl": 96486.01,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1784920113,
   "side": "BUY",
@@ -3159,7 +3159,7 @@
    "open_cost": 1323.12,
    "open_n": 12,
    "miss_n": 24,
-   "miss_pnl": -484.92,
+   "miss_pnl": -596.83,
    "last_ts": 1784887113
   },
   "JuiceFarm": {
@@ -3183,5 +3183,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1784920120
+ "updated": 1784921036
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index 5338b7f1..262da52a 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1784920120,
+ "updated": 1784921036,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 573.42,
@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@
    "open_cost": 1323.12,
    "open_n": 12,
    "miss_n": 24,
-   "miss_pnl": -484.92,
+   "miss_pnl": -596.83,
    "last_ts": 1784887113
   },
   "JuiceFarm": {
@@ -4657,6 +4657,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1784682914,
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "token": "66006680389192620317816056197058298603060937483253191311974086024874814208778",
+   "cond": "0x78322c43b6c76c3f29208ae75bf81d455c3b3b803c891a8945e25fe4376a3a8e",
+   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.52,
+   "stake": 110.32,
+   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a",
+   "status": "lost",
+   "pnl": -111.91,
+   "settled": 1784921034,
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1784914783,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -5323,21 +5338,6 @@
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.7583
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784682914,
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "token": "66006680389192620317816056197058298603060937483253191311974086024874814208778",
-   "cond": "0x78322c43b6c76c3f29208ae75bf81d455c3b3b803c891a8945e25fe4376a3a8e",
-   "title": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.52,
-   "stake": 110.32,
-   "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784663345,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index 56333727..05d23b43 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2188,3 +2188,8 @@
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