From 2fab0424d04effdd56174c4a3439e187ed03a7ba Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:48:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] research: sub-5c surge longshots as an EXPLORATORY forward arm MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Same frozen surge signal, band opened to 0.5-5c, all niches, F=$300 — tracked nightly as flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY (NOT pre-registered). First tape scan: they live in in-play sports totals/blowout tails + esports maps; ~70% crater; 31 resolved fills, 4 wins, EV sign owned entirely by two lottery hits; sim depth-blind at longshot share counts. Accumulate to ~100+ resolved fills before any pre-registration or kill. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- research/forward.py | 22 ++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+) diff --git a/research/forward.py b/research/forward.py index dc671713..35a055e6 100644 --- a/research/forward.py +++ b/research/forward.py @@ -162,6 +162,28 @@ def main(): print(f"oracle {d}: " + (r2.get("skipped") or " ".join(f"E{E}:{g.get('ev_per_fill')}({g['fills']}f)" for E, g in sorted(r2.items())))) + # EXPLORATORY arm (2026-07-21, user ask): the same surge signal + # on sub-5c longshots, all niches. NOT pre-registered — 20-50x + # lottery payoffs mean one hit flips a small sample (first scan: + # 31 resolved fills, 4 wins, sign set entirely by two esports + # winners), and the sim has no depth model ($100 at 2c = 5,000 + # shares a longshot book won't hold). Accumulates here until + # ~100+ resolved fills exist; only then is a pre-registration + # (or a kill) worth writing. + band0, nich0 = sf.PRICE_BAND, sf.NICHES + try: + sf.PRICE_BAND = (0.005, 0.05) + sf.NICHES = {"sports", "esports", "tennis", "crypto", + "politics", "geo", "other"} + r3 = score_flow(db, {**fz, "flow_usd": 300}, d, cal["hold_s"]) + finally: + sf.PRICE_BAND, sf.NICHES = band0, nich0 + fh.write(json.dumps({"study": "flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY", "day": d, + "computed_at": now, **r3}, + default=float) + "\n") + print(f"sub5c {d}: trig {r3['triggers']} " + f"worst {r3['worst'].get('ev_per_fill')} " + f"({r3['worst']['fills']} fills, {r3['worst']['pending']} pend)") if __name__ == "__main__":