diff --git a/copybot_fills.live.jsonl b/copybot_fills.live.jsonl
index 144e8fbf..78ebc0ae 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.live.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.live.jsonl
@@ -245,3 +245,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784289878.8, "side": "SELL", "token": "104354766235014413556450504744840326540657851486089721436856141808878413679918", "shares": 0.55, "price": 0.996, "fee": 0.0001, "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1784289886.7, "side": "SELL", "token": "104354766235014413556450504744840326540657851486089721436856141808878413679918", "shares": 0.23, "price": 0.996, "fee": 0.0, "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1784300236.7, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "8310650677069487821478025416478130051168635736368290554555541536659374960027", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "No", "title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?", "detect_lag_s": 7.7, "their_price": 0.78, "my_price": 0.82, "slippage_pct": 0.0513, "shares": 2.85, "cost": 2.34, "fee": 0.0126, "mode": "live", "book": {"bb": 0.8, "ba": 0.82, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 4469.5, "ask5c": 21260.67}}
+{"ts": 1784303813.2, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?", "detect_lag_s": 1.2, "their_price": 0.6, "my_price": 0.6, "slippage_pct": 0.0, "shares": 3.75, "cost": 2.25, "fee": 0.027, "mode": "live", "book": {"bb": 0.57, "ba": 0.6, "spread": 0.03, "bid5c": 215.55, "ask5c": 4456.84}}
diff --git a/copybot_state.live.json b/copybot_state.live.json
index 6f62a064..bdf752ab 100644
--- a/copybot_state.live.json
+++ b/copybot_state.live.json
@@ -1,10 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783572616.4091802,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0xc381c6e41e759aae009cfad3337c0fec92270ca867b37a7205f20fa92136923b",
-    "0x66fe45fa727d1b33f9c37eeb21e49b3bb89886a8ea790ff0a678003c818229f1",
-    "0x6315d386056733d096f3ada35c8762ce9b28162175b26d3be32d49f06b8eca3a",
-    "0x7045f44071e2410d98318a810c31797d50b21dff28815fb264ed206b0d7994b4",
     "0x1e7f7bf6dd79eba2b588908d3e598c61b9010bf57ace600f4e5e669f2db4f99f",
     "0x9fba8e467f170fd012438406aeb4bcec9777eff8a386100564a266e9f4b61bb8",
     "0xa5ea33777dfcd8c27ed374f57de7b327f9f895b9191d5b7e205b6dca023cbd25",
@@ -754,6 +750,7 @@
     "0x6e0bb4e16cb1a4fed7fe90a4746257345bbcda9745a8e73f88f3013e46a0e4c9",
     "0xe24377df66bf6894a76a12d8caa1686461ad6561c56d4668c6244250aed89b94",
     "0x9a62c54ac84b5960166333c6908943b4c03cf8c894dcf0afb822caf0f1e9c5d1",
+    "0x6384dd22ff7767401030b16a60132fe7d0f8fad7b3fceb1112cf88f1bc33218a",
     "0x9dfde307b98c8eacfbf086ac26983808a2f439e167f95f98fbd479947cbfd0f8",
     "0x72281bd03e46ee5ba5b9633b6bd3e159c1b771ee1a378639fae48c16ecc95f40",
     "0x8f860a3eb2243b052f17e5e11ec3c840e627c8fdfd75c7161f30aabc662edcc4",
@@ -2753,6 +2750,7 @@
     "0x35f85e042c91b0285ecf524df6c5253279239c225e08d87eeefc275780004562",
     "0x36c867c1c6d3c289046a916e0891143b146f7f2f61568d411f838200c624eb38",
     "0x178e81f39184a4402c252213f7cb18e11d5e82216e3f878db1c5a15f4d2d8b26",
+    "0x6d4e8e98ac8082e4e57cb58bba638729bd69687ff3ad19f530ececee68e96f77",
     "0xd27213e39d4cf42121a4cef93fffaa060004df408bcb24b2764f1e9e23cc0469",
     "0xceab5f1e77f53f5430304b84e87fff105cc6830abf22b181369ce3f4b95040b8",
     "0x4ba94cb80612fcc21cadd7ef0f41e8c20dd3928c4de579c9fe85c091396dfbf1",
@@ -3428,6 +3426,7 @@
     "0xf5e483727493836e1ae7cff9003031830b79f40adaebd9cb62f46b2d7451d555",
     "0x0b9aa5960338aa403aa43bbdb93e6a77de332042b5f1c1f3f44476c295db8415",
     "0x5e992d0a8993780bca22eb03e349929d72678cabc272fdd84a292bc58c1234cd",
+    "0xaf937c6e2b408687c42c8882a23ded7f5216bf9131491bf5b82d447c72bd4d77",
     "0xf4b65517de7fb72acdf7b9bd82e35a6a5a4528cd5017cd45f5eed300e0ce5edc",
     "0x252c2417cf60d71a16345e746ca86c596b8feb277f57726272f98fbaec909d0f",
     "0x9f0ae0e8ac0534f7f002d305da2df7037bc54e00e1834df3856493db1f437f1c",
@@ -3709,6 +3708,7 @@
     "0xbd6dfd4b9cb8b7c803cd60febb32c45b44e9052f2a25be18a37b77f50d03a3e8",
     "0x3288171fc1ea191b794e9c8677b8eb8326ebd6ac1ee08a9b6462c793efea084b",
     "0x80d7e103cd72cf1e7e8fd9d615119a9666995ed4f16da0b5d60f5913a2a0c64b",
+    "0x57d15eee98894a44b714635c4b4c787de2201a67a3cf080c7411f3ab24073643",
     "0x9091092981801cbe297da1bc07093ca5133f85bdb7c811f3acf4bc5a39e8b282",
     "0x27f0848d03b936ead6baa1eee7eb804b8e06fcb7ec4553eb9e918aa7d82438e1",
     "0xe281915e1988bb3764c9bdc717e93a79cd2913470dd2b5199a51582cf14452f0",
@@ -6791,7 +6791,10 @@
       "60643960237912042991623385995992740897392655866310010945852324078346572439711": 0.0,
       "1921538476220347113288629896331347950248211150888009838432564977874951623414": 0.0,
       "6389531886339326872019040087067931507394742569293799407834024235601037900549": 0.0,
-      "65083870366687373086730707346131907305811131359213614908957826335591758208": 0.0
+      "65083870366687373086730707346131907305811131359213614908957826335591758208": 0.0,
+      "105222211137469930187167815640290730030446560079473066993586733708045255791742": 0.0,
+      "19340078937013577148171238392323646866463928268582140624100333248568207116627": 0.0,
+      "28782906734976367034652809126970357901755811695575578507894349405056833093999": 0.0
     },
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": {
       "113186575675900877797300695454355745875377602467971187276073118459901699932154": 767.49,
@@ -7998,7 +8001,8 @@
       "35358889366059131445607416132477521541386270328042995107702816540034073998102": 2080.38,
       "96493470136581654430268359631814450290137534659017161119334974730318350734648": 1162.79,
       "44468469502362896904382382268326429514759034374954168469772685401278157136699": 1257.9099999999999,
-      "8310650677069487821478025416478130051168635736368290554555541536659374960027": 1363.63
+      "8310650677069487821478025416478130051168635736368290554555541536659374960027": 1363.63,
+      "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302": 500
     }
   },
   "seed_tokens": {
@@ -10350,11 +10354,20 @@
       "event": null,
       "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
       "cond": "0x31327c6fbdc70a44d97f8e8973f536b6a748e01b4c0ca5549ed0910c703b1d7b"
+    },
+    "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302": {
+      "shares": 3.75,
+      "cost": 2.25,
+      "title": "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "event": "will-anthropic-extend-claude-fable-5-paid-plan-access-again-by-july-19-20260712201937544",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "cond": "0x33202ea27cf7fbf8d387c6ef1e0eb956dc999ffb96385b6fe67b84ea4a364952"
     }
   },
   "spend": {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
-    "usd": 7.394373959999999
+    "usd": 9.64437396
   },
   "seeded": [
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41",
@@ -10421,15 +10434,16 @@
     "33873561500205954397168619257230846593108517022766612303805480582152511862669": "0x5c8ff7602393cc120f311a659a94bd1e886e7e024d9c24c1edeb31c8bc2c0a2a",
     "70071514755027914725023328573024847971805733187006977673637026985321376228783": "0xcbb3accb99485c62bbad6f8ee54c06b450d4b9a5e03d4d47b9f6a92731eea8a5",
     "104354766235014413556450504744840326540657851486089721436856141808878413679918": "0xb648b18d07653753d75ebac69d4896300be8f234c9137e67e514b22b187febb6",
-    "8310650677069487821478025416478130051168635736368290554555541536659374960027": "0x31327c6fbdc70a44d97f8e8973f536b6a748e01b4c0ca5549ed0910c703b1d7b"
+    "8310650677069487821478025416478130051168635736368290554555541536659374960027": "0x31327c6fbdc70a44d97f8e8973f536b6a748e01b4c0ca5549ed0910c703b1d7b",
+    "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302": "0x33202ea27cf7fbf8d387c6ef1e0eb956dc999ffb96385b6fe67b84ea4a364952"
   },
-  "cash": 43.83981111746,
+  "cash": 41.56281111746,
   "lag": {
-    "n": 79,
-    "sum_s": 2905.821402311325,
+    "n": 80,
+    "sum_s": 2907.005490541458,
     "sum_slip_pct": 2.0151291295871445
   },
-  "fees_paid": 2.1676415905182473,
+  "fees_paid": 2.1946415905182475,
   "lag_recent": [
     [
       1784221564.5,
@@ -10455,6 +10469,11 @@
       1784300236.7,
       7.7,
       0.05128
+    ],
+    [
+      1784303813.2,
+      1.2,
+      0.0
     ]
   ],
   "bets": {
@@ -12166,12 +12185,32 @@
       "exit_price": null,
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null
+    },
+    "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302": {
+      "token": "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "title": "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?",
+      "their_price": 0.6,
+      "my_price": 0.6,
+      "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+      "lag_s": 1.2,
+      "shares": 3.75,
+      "cost": 2.25,
+      "fee": 0.027,
+      "opened": 1784303812,
+      "status": "open",
+      "exit_price": null,
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null
     }
   },
   "no_miss_toks": [
     "10156027633494409720695871576446950666751488043725000230955438131793922985630",
     "103773433095736128254470917339076578918263049956717259470854794146346986328749",
     "104866904114667047609018641631047329062431759421005756799209881897125449726305",
+    "105222211137469930187167815640290730030446560079473066993586733708045255791742",
     "105242116070012403549374882864306370413030590765888037770635382355803686374112",
     "111975229266266023643475056561654967953754589585276778045485424462893013839903",
     "11938235943803611925664038902995821842385973739298907648840793071910062815438",
@@ -14538,8 +14577,8 @@
       "exit_price": 0.0016
     }
   ],
-  "feed_sig": "5b2045b2e3a565084a0dd52a8996b886",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784302417.5726311,
+  "feed_sig": "002f8b6434c1ef66b4df3e9fa7bf0c1c",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784303711.3589146,
   "adjustments": [
     {
       "ts": 1783906689,
@@ -14575,7 +14614,7 @@
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1784299185,
     "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784300889,
-    "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1784302477,
+    "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1784303559,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1784302164,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784289301,
     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": 1784300229
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real.json b/live/copybot_live_real.json
index efb59884..3b05401b 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real.json
@@ -5,20 +5,20 @@
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 61.23,
- "cash": 43.84,
- "deployed": 12.33,
+ "cash": 41.56,
+ "deployed": 14.58,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": -10.19,
+ "realized": -10.22,
  "adjustments": -0.06,
  "ledger_drift": 2.32,
- "open_count": 9,
- "fees_paid": 2.17,
+ "open_count": 10,
+ "fees_paid": 2.19,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 79,
-  "n24": 5,
-  "avg_s": 9.1,
-  "avg_slip_pct": 0.0356,
+  "n": 80,
+  "n24": 6,
+  "avg_s": 7.8,
+  "avg_slip_pct": 0.0296,
   "window_h": 24
  },
  "wallets": [
@@ -46,6 +46,25 @@
   "AIcAIc": 542.0
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "110536989543612561899836326685728311541346128503675227319696677241365666291302",
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "title": "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?",
+   "their_price": 0.6,
+   "my_price": 0.6,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 1.2,
+   "shares": 3.75,
+   "cost": 2.25,
+   "fee": 0.03,
+   "opened": 1784303812,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null
+  },
   {
    "token": "96950124081618618921481886565893597118962484567379764630538216424318356050283",
    "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf",
@@ -2704,5 +2723,5 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 1041.03,
- "updated": 1784302465
+ "updated": 1784303816
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
index a80d719e..85d759b5 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
@@ -2320,3 +2320,7 @@
 {"ts": 1784302478.43, "trade_ts": 1784302477, "lat_s": 1.43, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "side": "BUY", "size": 75, "price": 0.7, "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "tx": "0x5925dad92c882a7a7a38f7d62d6bc30775dee206fb7005146fc8d5d8df786839", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784302478.53, "trade_ts": 1784302478, "lat_s": 0.53, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "side": "BUY", "size": 75, "price": 0.7, "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "tx": "0x4f219e3516bfd4cefc9a31bd0acd578dc50f83d8dae17d1442db1b3d17ad19f6", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784302478.58, "trade_ts": 1784302478, "lat_s": 0.58, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "side": "BUY", "size": 75, "price": 0.7, "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "tx": "0xeae41bfa63b1533aff1d0ac2361e3c9274e11a33b62b6a1af7c5da36835f2993", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784302845.57, "trade_ts": 1784302845, "lat_s": 0.57, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "side": "SELL", "size": 999.98, "price": 0.67020000400008, "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "tx": "0x6d4e8e98ac8082e4e57cb58bba638729bd69687ff3ad19f530ececee68e96f77", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784303333.6, "trade_ts": 1784303333, "lat_s": 0.6, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "side": "BUY", "size": 1373.189332, "price": 0.2912926787869919, "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "tx": "0x4ac84d0e9b37f28478c52162c78e8db83bed3d5761718031052623added444fa", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784303585.7, "trade_ts": 1784303585, "lat_s": 0.7, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "side": "SELL", "size": 1224.15, "price": 0.1559510680880611, "title": "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner", "tx": "0x6384dd22ff7767401030b16a60132fe7d0f8fad7b3fceb1112cf88f1bc33218a", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784303812.35, "trade_ts": 1784303812, "lat_s": 0.34, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 500, "price": 0.6, "title": "Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again ", "tx": "0xf0b8e3fc6b52685f8de96a46f43ba4c2476a6f8bc361cb0fb7e22ff48bfe98ba", "seen": false}