diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 21a32be9..30ed37a7 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -1392,3 +1392,18 @@
 {"ts": 1785240368.9, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785240370.7, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785240371.0, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.38, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785240720.3, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785240722.4, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785240722.7, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.38, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785241368.2, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785241370.6, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.38, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785241707.6, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785241709.7, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785241710.2, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.38, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242046.4, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242048.2, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242048.6, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.38, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242384.4, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242386.7, "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.27, "shares_held": 37.5315, "cost_held": 23.64, "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242387.2, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.38, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
index d941c195..f57a0c7f 100644
--- a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
@@ -20,3 +20,4 @@
 {"ts": 1783652092, "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", "token": "24696476679489653392896522921778886207347569484211127510964843324817442529198", "cond": "0x9f8c5bc5333bc77eda235d424e8c46dc02fde489409d3c501603852929b09e75", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.64, "stake": 84.3, "reason": "price moved 0.51\u21920.64", "status": "sold", "pnl": -18.92, "settled": 1783652153, "name": "0xd96750bf", "exit_price": 0.5108}
 {"ts": 1783671341, "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", "token": "18269015422382136019818153603324620968900134618004278553305656985016507685122", "cond": "0xdd0bb6a9b4914cb6865166a190b2b9965442ac9fcfe3907b98cf140214bbe96c", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.99, "stake": 85.02, "reason": "price moved 0.55\u21920.99", "status": "sold", "pnl": -38.02, "settled": 1783671386, "name": "0xd96750bf", "exit_price": 0.555}
 {"ts": 1783675836, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "110708614617189583631393918009679567370443859313775277411746388200261997600454", "cond": "0x31a4b89f84155d5480fb8539db0af8188aed23a5d231db7810da8c0b3fa170d2", "title": "Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "GamerLegion", "price": 0.39, "stake": 85.1, "reason": "price moved 0.36\u21920.39", "status": "sold", "pnl": 31.74, "settled": 1783676056, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.55}
+{"ts": 1783677861, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "100198471262079386993761824025743140222494027672175410847273506523400747511360", "cond": "0xbb0f06d9834bc69265a845a296cd01e4426f964627509a9f2d5383b43e89803f", "title": "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Xtreme Gaming", "price": 0.38, "stake": 85.1, "reason": "price moved 0.28\u21920.38", "status": "lost", "pnl": -86.68, "settled": 1783685621, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_checked": true}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index f459e70e..1d789c35 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -493,3 +493,7 @@
 {"ts": 1785239576.0, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "41487090442136489952160698409815992637913578625475716232808952930554558025784", "cond": "0x5275efe565891007227ef6556231aa2435c77213ef21c109bf6f5017467ca21c", "usd": 16.23, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$16 < conviction floor $471", "title": "LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Lea", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785239576.0, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "41487090442136489952160698409815992637913578625475716232808952930554558025784", "cond": "0x5275efe565891007227ef6556231aa2435c77213ef21c109bf6f5017467ca21c", "usd": 31.35, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$31 < conviction floor $471", "title": "LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Lea", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785239576.4, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "41487090442136489952160698409815992637913578625475716232808952930554558025784", "cond": "0x5275efe565891007227ef6556231aa2435c77213ef21c109bf6f5017467ca21c", "usd": 213.06, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$213 < conviction floor $471", "title": "LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Lea", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242353.4, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "23548757006718880752689995920564783999600739647530909873802089716853319550110", "cond": "0x4abf6bbef17aac4e0104492512b1a21284577f2f91e5b7706b48dead505575b7", "usd": 300.0, "price": 0.47, "reason": "$300 < conviction floor $471", "title": "Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242363.2, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "24287003028980466247187044550266063653998500972848075666609032620527619393071", "cond": "0x7f4a0faa0782fd295dac8587db732728d18d7547f689f3f9ec9cd210cd08e69b", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.46, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242364.8, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "24287003028980466247187044550266063653998500972848075666609032620527619393071", "cond": "0x7f4a0faa0782fd295dac8587db732728d18d7547f689f3f9ec9cd210cd08e69b", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.465924, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785242381.2, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "24287003028980466247187044550266063653998500972848075666609032620527619393071", "cond": "0x7f4a0faa0782fd295dac8587db732728d18d7547f689f3f9ec9cd210cd08e69b", "usd": 200.0, "price": 0.45954054145917994, "reason": "$200 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 4b0a58fa..51e4607a 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -19190,25 +19190,9 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3385.4117262488894,
-  "feed_sig": "d9c282d5e10348851685a6a7ab2a31ed",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1785240232.508834,
+  "feed_sig": "c4b9892605ad1ceb33c9385474fd0e3e",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1785242248.5043452,
   "missed": [
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-      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-      "token": "100198471262079386993761824025743140222494027672175410847273506523400747511360",
-      "cond": "0xbb0f06d9834bc69265a845a296cd01e4426f964627509a9f2d5383b43e89803f",
-      "title": "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner",
-      "outcome": "Xtreme Gaming",
-      "price": 0.38,
-      "stake": 85.1,
-      "reason": "price moved 0.28\u21920.38",
-      "status": "lost",
-      "pnl": -86.68,
-      "settled": 1783685621,
-      "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-      "exit_checked": true
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1783681135,
       "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -22378,6 +22362,20 @@
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null,
       "name": "0xbadaf319"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785242388,
+      "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
+      "token": "24287003028980466247187044550266063653998500972848075666609032620527619393071",
+      "cond": "0x7f4a0faa0782fd295dac8587db732728d18d7547f689f3f9ec9cd210cd08e69b",
+      "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET",
+      "outcome": "Up",
+      "price": 0.4629,
+      "stake": 135.4,
+      "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+      "status": "open",
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null
     }
   ],
   "no_miss_toks": [
@@ -22499,25 +22497,25 @@
     "111238155193029214626119372717509509454868187612257655146390848111901958320265": 1,
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-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 1007,
+    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 1012,
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-    "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228": 160,
+    "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228": 165,
     "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928": 4,
-    "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421": 127
+    "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421": 132
   },
   "trade_cursor": {
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     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
-    "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785182613,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785238246,
-    "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785239528,
+    "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785239347,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785240191,
+    "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785242389,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1785074847,
-    "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785209383,
+    "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785242363,
     "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c": 1785195511,
     "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90": 1785236008
   },
@@ -22539,231 +22537,6 @@
     "misses": 26
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
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-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.88,
-      "shares_held": 0.8746,
-      "cost_held": 0.61,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
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-    {
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-      "sell_px": 0.35,
-      "shares_held": 37.5315,
-      "cost_held": 23.64,
-      "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
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-      "mode": "paper"
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 }
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diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index bb2f963a..09bc62a1 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -2148,6 +2148,21 @@
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+   "cond": "0x7f4a0faa0782fd295dac8587db732728d18d7547f689f3f9ec9cd210cd08e69b",
+   "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET",
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+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
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@@ -3079,24 +3094,9 @@
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@@ -3132,7 +3132,7 @@
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@@ -3207,5 +3207,5 @@
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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index ec10d791..99e9cc17 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
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@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@
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@@ -5313,6 +5313,21 @@
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