docs + audit sweep 2026-07-23: fill-model lesson, five-test day, archive pass

FINDINGS: 'The fill model is the next scorer' section (A2 chain grade
-$7.54/fill x1344 confirms the surge kill; oracle harness chain grade
vetoes the ledger-positive tiers; virtual-book +26% variance footnote;
the five tandem tests and the makers-on-the-wall through-line).
HANDOFF: snapshot -> 07-23 (7-wallet rev 5, dark flags, Friday agenda
incl #20/#21). READMEs: /test consolidation row, measurement-harness
research row, study statuses + new script inventory.
Archive: value/ (closed 07-19) + its test, ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md,
order_probe v1 -> archive/; replay_out/ gitignored; links repaired.
Tests: all 7 active scripts pass post-move.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
2026-07-23 13:55:25 -04:00
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commit 222a750bd7
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@@ -39,9 +39,26 @@ Layout:
win-biased; see SCORER LAW) · title parsers · chain_overlay()
sim.py execution replayer calibrated on OUR live fills ledger
(lag, FAK no-match, protected band, 3% taker fee)
study_flow.py Study A — surge momentum (KILLED 2026-07-22, #16)
study_oracle.py Study B — crypto oracle fair value (#17: E0.04 killed,
E0.07 accumulating)
study_flow.py Study A — surge momentum (KILLED 2026-07-22, #16; A2
chain grade $7.54/fill × 1,344 independently confirms)
study_oracle.py Study B — crypto oracle fair value (#17: E0.04 killed;
E≥0.07/0.1 ledger-positive but the harness chain grade
2026-07-23 reads $8.51/$5.90 per fill at real latency
— taker arm evidence-dead, tiers accrue to their formal
bars, maker pivot is the successor hypothesis)
copy_edge_slices.py T5 — parity-era copy edge by niche/lag/band/wallet
(esports carries it; feeds #14)
copy_maker_entry.py T3 — resting-bid copy entries beat taker FAKs
(+$17.45 vs +$12.86/signal; basis of #20)
sell_mirror_study.py sharp exits are bankroll ops, not signal
(basis of #21 hold-through)
maker_sharps.py T2 — 673 improbably-winning MAKERS in
orders_matched (86% invisible to taker screens);
follow-on: inventory-lean signal
sibling_sum_scan.py T4 — print-substrate sum-arb scan (artifact-
dominated; needs standing-book data; parked)
maker_quote_sim.py T1 — crypto maker quoting at fairm (stale-quote
latency model; re-run pending)
requote.py crater→requote timing (feeds the bots' per-niche retry)
forward.py scores frozen studies on new tape days → forward_ledger
(payouts_for chain overlay mandatory; controls + sub5c