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docs + audit sweep 2026-07-23: fill-model lesson, five-test day, archive pass
FINDINGS: 'The fill model is the next scorer' section (A2 chain grade -$7.54/fill x1344 confirms the surge kill; oracle harness chain grade vetoes the ledger-positive tiers; virtual-book +26% variance footnote; the five tandem tests and the makers-on-the-wall through-line). HANDOFF: snapshot -> 07-23 (7-wallet rev 5, dark flags, Friday agenda incl #20/#21). READMEs: /test consolidation row, measurement-harness research row, study statuses + new script inventory. Archive: value/ (closed 07-19) + its test, ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md, order_probe v1 -> archive/; replay_out/ gitignored; links repaired. Tests: all 7 active scripts pass post-move. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -39,9 +39,26 @@ Layout:
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win-biased; see SCORER LAW) · title parsers · chain_overlay()
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sim.py execution replayer calibrated on OUR live fills ledger
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(lag, FAK no-match, protected band, 3% taker fee)
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study_flow.py Study A — surge momentum (KILLED 2026-07-22, #16)
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study_oracle.py Study B — crypto oracle fair value (#17: E0.04 killed,
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E≥0.07 accumulating)
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study_flow.py Study A — surge momentum (KILLED 2026-07-22, #16; A2
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chain grade −$7.54/fill × 1,344 independently confirms)
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study_oracle.py Study B — crypto oracle fair value (#17: E0.04 killed;
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E≥0.07/0.1 ledger-positive but the harness chain grade
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2026-07-23 reads −$8.51/−$5.90 per fill at real latency
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— taker arm evidence-dead, tiers accrue to their formal
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bars, maker pivot is the successor hypothesis)
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copy_edge_slices.py T5 — parity-era copy edge by niche/lag/band/wallet
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(esports carries it; feeds #14)
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copy_maker_entry.py T3 — resting-bid copy entries beat taker FAKs
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(+$17.45 vs +$12.86/signal; basis of #20)
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sell_mirror_study.py sharp exits are bankroll ops, not signal
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(basis of #21 hold-through)
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maker_sharps.py T2 — 673 improbably-winning MAKERS in
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orders_matched (86% invisible to taker screens);
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follow-on: inventory-lean signal
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sibling_sum_scan.py T4 — print-substrate sum-arb scan (artifact-
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dominated; needs standing-book data; parked)
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maker_quote_sim.py T1 — crypto maker quoting at fair−m (stale-quote
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latency model; re-run pending)
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requote.py crater→requote timing (feeds the bots' per-niche retry)
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forward.py scores frozen studies on new tape days → forward_ledger
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(payouts_for chain overlay mandatory; controls + sub5c
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