selection: trusted-row layer + holder-gate fix — the holder blind spot

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Two data bugs were hiding the best copy targets (FINDINGS 'The holder
blind spot'):

* live/trust.py (new): only score rows whose res_t matches the market's
  consensus resolution time across >=2 wallets, pulled after resolution,
  resolved != False. Kills the res_t=ts fallback poison that let scalpers
  masquerade as 99%-win holders (ArbTraderRookie's rows were 100% this).
* conviction_scan.py: trusted rows only; p80 conviction cutoff from the
  train window only (look-ahead leak); new gates z_all>2 (whole-book z,
  ~doubles pooled forward copy-ROI) and median conviction stake >=$50
  (dust filter). 55 wallets selected, forward 30/38 profitable, +21.4%
  pooled (was 284 selected, +16.0%).
* validate_timing.py: the held-edge gates now read the trailing-90d
  trusted conviction record via trust.conviction_record instead of the
  replay's held leg, which is structurally ~all-unresolved for week-lead
  holders (whale 0x73afc816 showed 'held 0-0, 21 unresolved' and was
  rejected at 100% fwd win). 25 copy-positive holders now, including
  Stavenson (51-0), the whale (112-4) and iohihoo (98-10).
* cache.py: query() helper so trust.py shares the single in-process
  connection instead of fighting the single-writer lock.
* README: gotcha 8 (fake res_t/won) + candidate next data sources
  (Goldsky pipelines, PolymarketData order books, Pinnacle CLV,
  Polysights); FINDINGS: dated section correcting the iohihoo/ArbTrader
  scalper-trap verdicts as winner=False-bug artifacts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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jaxperro

2026-07-04 09:08:35 -04:00

parent 4b05db4f4c

commit 1d754353c2

8 changed files with 1691 additions and 3574 deletions

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