diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index f4111304..32b1702f 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -4616,3 +4616,5 @@
 {"ts": 1785611160.4, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.11, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785611498.1, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.006, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785611498.7, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.11, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785611831.9, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.007, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785611832.4, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.11, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 6c697c79..c3583a61 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -13990,15 +13990,6 @@
       "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
       "cond": "0x8aaaca6ea5c037d3cdfe85272ab9029b7165694dcae8af0de5071f01a1a944f0"
     },
-    "68354490231292339705788355645447204244217234157276853910593583690623904256055": {
-      "shares": 8.5,
-      "cost": 6.800000000000001,
-      "title": "Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by July 31?",
-      "outcome": "No",
-      "event": null,
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "cond": "0x675eb399eefd8ab595da49be18429d688b62737d66b997d1298a40db589a3f73"
-    },
     "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191": {
       "shares": 263.35,
       "cost": 123.7745,
@@ -14254,7 +14245,6 @@
     "9143471318122042059988785265162570023911768060235394311552003051606225073096": "0x968e7d0e59659dc602480ed9ca6fbd933a25912e1667dcec1f43d243cec5e0b0",
     "68080778697884921540335032370654180051222428162809511382222697646266365598353": "0xf473c2e521258a81d44f16fd65e811de7bcb6646912561583969004b81c10ec1",
     "88095392088380018988811128905056685420681684247700244221273733002608971216833": "0x8aaaca6ea5c037d3cdfe85272ab9029b7165694dcae8af0de5071f01a1a944f0",
-    "68354490231292339705788355645447204244217234157276853910593583690623904256055": "0x675eb399eefd8ab595da49be18429d688b62737d66b997d1298a40db589a3f73",
     "80495693308906829029683308162293224578453743674738440139240596924963250131399": "0x7d31a4289f70ec791327d21344714975ac446c7cf82377889fa2eaa57d671804",
     "67912387740604654388311594539741757732325634041020667730293753310456593145775": "0x366e55ad583f0bc42db0af8c076a07f003d8099ddea6e309aeac8f4086e3f1bd",
     "40257860192328331039995645096358822071679870588847044844154817698500464424757": "0xb17f3f3213876e864776f5d20e396ed50235959b22024d257d8d9f0ce4b3f450",
@@ -14309,7 +14299,7 @@
     "41924814385271001327475674741821953575251218962289218166941963169991583786761": "0xd9424ce031bb1a0fe039063773eb22901d07361afac583fca40d8b1a8112a7f3",
     "94931881022086117089407923467735257712223629834772704788988893973730960860390": "0x12be1f93f19f23cf6095fe4cc9256d45c4d4395c696b2d418f5076f8c84c80d0"
   },
-  "cash": 1585.5263047076867,
+  "cash": 1594.0263047076867,
   "lag": {
     "n": 360,
     "sum_s": 7356.086040973663,
@@ -18729,10 +18719,10 @@
       "cost": 6.8,
       "fee": 0.0408,
       "opened": 1784874168,
-      "status": "open",
-      "exit_price": null,
-      "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null,
+      "status": "won",
+      "exit_price": 1.0,
+      "pnl": 1.66,
+      "settled": 1785612410,
       "end_ts": 1785542400
     },
     "80495693308906829029683308162293224578453743674738440139240596924963250131399": {
@@ -20829,8 +20819,8 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 3600.1933566560215,
-  "feed_sig": "040815d851b37260f37bd39937fba708",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1785611633.7526183,
+  "feed_sig": "c38a618276fc93cace6950305d4fa208",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1785612282.3373094,
   "missed": [
     {
       "ts": 1783889397,
@@ -21968,9 +21958,9 @@
       "price": 0.75,
       "stake": 37.5,
       "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-      "status": "open",
-      "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null,
+      "status": "won",
+      "pnl": 12.22,
+      "settled": 1785612413,
       "name": "0xbadaf319"
     },
     {
@@ -24009,7 +23999,8 @@
       "reason": "thin book ($1 within 5c < $50)",
       "status": "open",
       "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "0xbadaf319"
     }
   ],
   "no_miss_toks": [
@@ -24159,7 +24150,7 @@
     "107156085038944146438947590438365026964800691960988984359921209164919978522933": 1,
     "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228": 338,
     "79670417518965340166637380137891741750752210241055933511013597289989925437928": 4,
-    "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421": 1155,
+    "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421": 1156,
     "64694885593632675781317938696736040286617580212029967143105168259299625512290": 15,
     "99168594369112900321075065263037928819848865546262777337590843994370476821249": 65,
     "91266914832076152890178245367327746643886105568273548856344063538633019008684": 10,
@@ -24167,7 +24158,7 @@
     "87461865681689699081648262736937951256169066109275377425968376597869321557502": 8,
     "36691622618442161420564423274570099987634772496502598170189501595483083268777": 1,
     "44268329315636111419901094380165521911713439651558819204937076716198280335678": 57,
-    "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191": 744,
+    "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191": 745,
     "105470050397895416738353896203765735520950460751992940982686152479742202067000": 1,
     "91005296975747185884827993266438280160416160824604371127998336237333692040745": 25,
     "102357232418942179672028130858766408228809563367413802735032151943425338940696": 1,
@@ -24186,7 +24177,7 @@
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785598997,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785611649,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785611745,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785429351,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1785587592,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785605915,
@@ -24211,36 +24202,6 @@
     "misses": 71
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
-    {
-      "ts": 1785579375.9,
-      "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.002,
-      "shares_held": 263.35,
-      "cost_held": 123.77,
-      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
-      "outcome": "No",
-      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
-    {
-      "ts": 1785579376.5,
-      "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.13,
-      "shares_held": 168.23,
-      "cost_held": 68.97,
-      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "paper"
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1785579658.8,
       "token": "94931881022086117089407923467735257712223629834772704788988893973730960860390",
@@ -27210,6 +27171,36 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785611831.9,
+      "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.007,
+      "shares_held": 263.35,
+      "cost_held": 123.77,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785611832.4,
+      "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.11,
+      "shares_held": 168.23,
+      "cost_held": 68.97,
+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 3cfe23b3..781ab662 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 57.21,
+ "stake": 57.24,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 3600.19,
- "cash": 1585.53,
- "deployed": 1274.94,
+ "cash": 1594.03,
+ "deployed": 1268.14,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 1860.44,
+ "realized": 1862.14,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
  "ledger_drift": -0.04,
- "open_count": 23,
+ "open_count": 22,
  "fees_paid": 437.98,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
@@ -50,6 +50,26 @@
   "JuiceFarm": 735.0
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "68354490231292339705788355645447204244217234157276853910593583690623904256055",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by July 31?",
+   "their_price": 0.8,
+   "my_price": 0.8,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 6.2,
+   "shares": 8.5,
+   "cost": 6.8,
+   "fee": 0.04,
+   "opened": 1784874168,
+   "status": "won",
+   "exit_price": 1.0,
+   "pnl": 1.66,
+   "settled": 1785612410,
+   "end_ts": 1785542400
+  },
   {
    "token": "43171108223683792926229116193941513170619352156926725221875963255678260552099",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2140,31 +2160,24 @@
    "end_ts": 1784851200,
    "sold_shares": 203.79,
    "sold_proceeds": 197.5
-  },
-  {
-   "token": "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978",
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?",
-   "their_price": 0.89,
-   "my_price": 0.8994,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
-   "lag_s": 1.1,
-   "shares": 58.72,
-   "cost": 52.82,
-   "fee": 0.16,
-   "opened": 1784908007,
-   "status": "won",
-   "exit_price": 1.0,
-   "pnl": 3.94,
-   "settled": 1784910993,
-   "end_ts": 1784851200,
-   "sold_shares": 29.03,
-   "sold_proceeds": 27.23
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1784573567,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "83778159848246307298177835560751845581203660912608603239968031176372923069932",
+   "cond": "0xf649be9e9c5ce3df0834e80690ee19f9696db9ee7c4b742b06cd3a84167c8a3d",
+   "title": "Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by July 31?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.75,
+   "stake": 37.5,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 12.22,
+   "settled": 1785612413,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785611745,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3088,25 +3101,9 @@
    "settled": 1785367189,
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.94
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1785306786,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "24004558937841837085615737318743242391761003362634559995158204873168219508775",
-   "cond": "0x1b15f5db5f6c513bcedde08ff1d70b3f122fa71012bf2230095ad38e26d092a2",
-   "title": "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 29?",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "price": 0.52,
-   "stake": 62.98,
-   "reason": "thin book ($40 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "lost",
-   "pnl": -63.89,
-   "settled": 1785364373,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_checked": true
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 21369.91,
+ "missed_pnl": 21382.13,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1785604565,
   "side": "SELL",
@@ -3117,14 +3114,14 @@
  },
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
-   "realized": 603.37,
-   "n": 92,
-   "wins": 33,
-   "open_cost": 656.83,
-   "open_n": 12,
+   "realized": 605.03,
+   "n": 93,
+   "wins": 34,
+   "open_cost": 650.03,
+   "open_n": 11,
    "miss_n": 121,
-   "miss_pnl": 112324.04,
-   "last_ts": 1785596252
+   "miss_pnl": 112336.26,
+   "last_ts": 1785612410
   },
   "gkmgkldfmg": {
    "realized": 948.45,
@@ -3217,5 +3214,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785611752
+ "updated": 1785612416
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index 6d2945a5..e8acc8ee 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785611752,
+ "updated": 1785612416,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
-   "realized": 603.37,
-   "n": 92,
-   "wins": 33,
-   "open_cost": 656.83,
-   "open_n": 12,
+   "realized": 605.03,
+   "n": 93,
+   "wins": 34,
+   "open_cost": 650.03,
+   "open_n": 11,
    "miss_n": 121,
-   "miss_pnl": 112324.04,
-   "last_ts": 1785596252
+   "miss_pnl": 112336.26,
+   "last_ts": 1785612410
   },
   "gkmgkldfmg": {
    "realized": 948.45,
@@ -104,6 +104,26 @@
   }
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "68354490231292339705788355645447204244217234157276853910593583690623904256055",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by July 31?",
+   "their_price": 0.8,
+   "my_price": 0.8,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 6.2,
+   "shares": 8.5,
+   "cost": 6.8,
+   "fee": 0.0408,
+   "opened": 1784874168,
+   "status": "won",
+   "exit_price": 1.0,
+   "pnl": 1.66,
+   "settled": 1785612410,
+   "end_ts": 1785542400
+  },
   {
    "token": "43171108223683792926229116193941513170619352156926725221875963255678260552099",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2411,26 +2431,6 @@
    "sold_shares": 13.44,
    "sold_proceeds": 13.4261572032
   },
-  {
-   "token": "68354490231292339705788355645447204244217234157276853910593583690623904256055",
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "title": "Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by July 31?",
-   "their_price": 0.8,
-   "my_price": 0.8,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
-   "lag_s": 6.2,
-   "shares": 8.5,
-   "cost": 6.8,
-   "fee": 0.0408,
-   "opened": 1784874168,
-   "status": "open",
-   "exit_price": null,
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1785542400
-  },
   {
    "token": "80270372288514892122229303181424592994977341771902366596528480848577129708762",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -6539,6 +6539,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1784573567,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "83778159848246307298177835560751845581203660912608603239968031176372923069932",
+   "cond": "0xf649be9e9c5ce3df0834e80690ee19f9696db9ee7c4b742b06cd3a84167c8a3d",
+   "title": "Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by July 31?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.75,
+   "stake": 37.5,
+   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
+   "status": "won",
+   "pnl": 12.22,
+   "settled": 1785612413,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785611745,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -8970,21 +8985,6 @@
    "name": "1kto1m",
    "exit_price": 0.36
   },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784573567,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "83778159848246307298177835560751845581203660912608603239968031176372923069932",
-   "cond": "0xf649be9e9c5ce3df0834e80690ee19f9696db9ee7c4b742b06cd3a84167c8a3d",
-   "title": "Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by July 31?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.75,
-   "stake": 37.5,
-   "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319"
-  },
   {
    "ts": 1784563071,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",