diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 338f6c1f..2fc29e22 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ "med_stake": 97, "avg_entry": 0.33, "train_n": 13, - "fwd_win": 54.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.272, - "fwd_n": 11 + "fwd_win": 53.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.247, + "fwd_n": 13 }, { "wallet": "0xf5fe759cece500f58a431ef8dacea321f6e3e23d", @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.98, + "z_all": 20.95, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, @@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ "train_n": 324, "fwd_win": 99.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 1.069, - "fwd_n": 223 + "fwd_n": 225 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -125,6 +125,34 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.755, "fwd_n": 64 }, + { + "wallet": "0x97eb7ddf9139a3db0be99e81217e20546e219fbe", + "name": "0x97eb7ddf", + "train_win": 78.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.603, + "train_z": 2.37, + "z_all": 3.4, + "med_stake": 875, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 19, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xd7664fe4744856866d3ee36b84ec6e77a7025eb1", + "name": "0xd7664fe4", + "train_win": 77.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.596, + "train_z": 4.22, + "z_all": 2.32, + "med_stake": 51, + "avg_entry": 0.47, + "train_n": 45, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x04be12cdb4f3f0e43bb78c6145f442ed53411aec", "name": "0x04be12cd", @@ -243,13 +271,13 @@ "train_win": 76.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.455, "train_z": 3.54, - "z_all": 4.67, + "z_all": 4.55, "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 81, - "fwd_win": 76.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.102, - "fwd_n": 206 + "fwd_win": 78.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, + "fwd_n": 222 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -289,9 +317,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 63.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, - "fwd_n": 216 + "fwd_win": 62.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.121, + "fwd_n": 221 }, { "wallet": "0xbf1040ad7009ed6532f885c2043630d1cedf15ce", @@ -313,7 +341,7 @@ "train_win": 68.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.38, "train_z": 8.0, - "z_all": 14.51, + "z_all": 14.5, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, @@ -345,9 +373,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 70.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.212, - "fwd_n": 232 + "fwd_win": 70.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.218, + "fwd_n": 238 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -359,9 +387,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 60.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.12, - "fwd_n": 226 + "fwd_win": 60.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.114, + "fwd_n": 230 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -383,12 +411,12 @@ "train_win": 83.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.31, "train_z": 4.2, - "z_all": 4.21, + "z_all": 4.16, "med_stake": 59, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 85, "fwd_win": 74.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.095, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, "fwd_n": 265 }, { @@ -415,9 +443,9 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 61.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.096, - "fwd_n": 90 + "fwd_win": 58.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.059, + "fwd_n": 97 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -425,13 +453,13 @@ "train_win": 71.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.304, "train_z": 5.76, - "z_all": 5.05, + "z_all": 4.94, "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, "fwd_win": 55.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.326, - "fwd_n": 279 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.323, + "fwd_n": 281 }, { "wallet": "0x0bd753cbeb82b4dc735fdd84955f99fbaf258553", @@ -443,9 +471,9 @@ "med_stake": 117, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 71, - "fwd_win": 62.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, - "fwd_n": 40 + "fwd_win": 60.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.104, + "fwd_n": 46 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -503,6 +531,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", + "name": "0x098eddab", + "train_win": 82.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.249, + "train_z": 3.88, + "z_all": 4.03, + "med_stake": 221, + "avg_entry": 0.68, + "train_n": 111, + "fwd_win": 73.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, + "fwd_n": 52 + }, { "wallet": "0xed37e7316f6b1b99da8893e0c09cfe0bf1b62f93", "name": "0xed37e731", @@ -517,20 +559,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 1.024, "fwd_n": 17 }, - { - "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", - "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.23, - "train_z": 3.73, - "z_all": 4.13, - "med_stake": 221, - "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 111, - "fwd_win": 73.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 52 - }, { "wallet": "0x2d462b29127b919ae4c085e03be44ae7077e3e2d", "name": "0x2d462b29", @@ -541,9 +569,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 66.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.351, - "fwd_n": 184 + "fwd_win": 67.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.341, + "fwd_n": 189 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -625,9 +653,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 87.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.141, - "fwd_n": 297 + "fwd_win": 87.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.143, + "fwd_n": 303 }, { "wallet": "0xa2e5927b38c42d1fdd6c05d70492c3f4208fc8d1", @@ -646,16 +674,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", "name": "0x0c3e55cf", - "train_win": 75.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.193, - "train_z": 3.78, - "z_all": 10.07, + "train_win": 74.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.192, + "train_z": 3.74, + "z_all": 10.02, "med_stake": 442, "avg_entry": 0.64, - "train_n": 236, - "fwd_win": 74.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.028, - "fwd_n": 427 + "train_n": 235, + "fwd_win": 74.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.038, + "fwd_n": 442 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -674,16 +702,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", "name": "0x93164f2f", - "train_win": 67.0, + "train_win": 65.8, "train_conv_roi": 0.189, - "train_z": 3.32, - "z_all": 2.01, + "train_z": 3.17, + "z_all": 2.71, "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 197, + "train_n": 225, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 + "fwd_n": 1 }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", @@ -709,9 +737,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 73.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.24, - "fwd_n": 191 + "fwd_win": 73.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.235, + "fwd_n": 194 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -761,7 +789,7 @@ "train_win": 76.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.167, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 4.03, + "z_all": 4.11, "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 247, @@ -770,18 +798,32 @@ "fwd_n": 65 }, { - "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448", - "name": "0x13464aab", - "train_win": 70.1, + "wallet": "0x84571f1bf97a5c710cbe51daff2dd4556cc887fd", + "name": "0x84571f1b", + "train_win": 74.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.166, + "train_z": 2.09, + "z_all": 2.48, + "med_stake": 907, + "avg_entry": 0.73, + "train_n": 286, + "fwd_win": 57.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.346, + "fwd_n": 281 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", + "name": "0xed61f86b", + "train_win": 73.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.161, - "train_z": 3.97, - "z_all": 8.58, - "med_stake": 166, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 338, - "fwd_win": 64.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.222, - "fwd_n": 127 + "train_z": 3.15, + "z_all": 10.32, + "med_stake": 1305, + "avg_entry": 0.66, + "train_n": 306, + "fwd_win": 85.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, + "fwd_n": 21 }, { "wallet": "0x2842d5201b2119d0ec14581fee3c3324bc0c9bab", @@ -800,13 +842,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 67.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.154, - "train_z": 2.59, - "z_all": 2.79, - "med_stake": 772, + "train_win": 66.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.158, + "train_z": 2.66, + "z_all": 2.81, + "med_stake": 767, "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 122, + "train_n": 124, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -839,6 +881,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.056, "fwd_n": 24 }, + { + "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448", + "name": "0x13464aab", + "train_win": 70.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.143, + "train_z": 3.87, + "z_all": 8.62, + "med_stake": 168, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 336, + "fwd_win": 65.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.278, + "fwd_n": 126 + }, { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", @@ -853,20 +909,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 }, - { - "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", - "name": "0xed61f86b", - "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.137, - "train_z": 3.04, - "z_all": 10.28, - "med_stake": 1305, - "avg_entry": 0.66, - "train_n": 305, - "fwd_win": 85.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.156, - "fwd_n": 21 - }, { "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f", "name": "0x3ab5ad27", @@ -913,15 +955,15 @@ "wallet": "0xa9aca75fb5d8f04c2ec9eeb0eb0c30d2e526c5d1", "name": "0xa9aca75f", "train_win": 65.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.125, - "train_z": 2.82, - "z_all": 2.7, - "med_stake": 1410, + "train_conv_roi": 0.127, + "train_z": 2.85, + "z_all": 2.69, + "med_stake": 1400, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 254, - "fwd_win": 63.3, + "fwd_win": 63.5, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.287, - "fwd_n": 180 + "fwd_n": 181 }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", @@ -933,9 +975,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 84.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.099, - "fwd_n": 176 + "fwd_win": 83.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.101, + "fwd_n": 181 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -957,13 +999,13 @@ "train_win": 68.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.12, "train_z": 2.03, - "z_all": 5.19, + "z_all": 5.21, "med_stake": 690, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 182, - "fwd_win": 56.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 53 + "fwd_win": 57.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.118, + "fwd_n": 63 }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", @@ -1031,9 +1073,23 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 71.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.109, - "fwd_n": 153 + "fwd_win": 72.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.108, + "fwd_n": 154 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 70.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.109, + "train_z": 3.12, + "z_all": 2.09, + "med_stake": 226, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 361, + "fwd_win": 65.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.133, + "fwd_n": 242 }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", @@ -1049,20 +1105,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -1.0, "fwd_n": 5 }, - { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 70.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.106, - "train_z": 3.08, - "z_all": 2.12, - "med_stake": 226, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 363, - "fwd_win": 64.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, - "fwd_n": 230 - }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -1078,18 +1120,18 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0x0130afd6f3efddf1c3e16e01217b172dd9befb49", - "name": "0x0130afd6", - "train_win": 65.5, + "wallet": "0xdd9683e392e9261b73c37ddef7115d60ab75ffc2", + "name": "0xdd9683e3", + "train_win": 67.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.102, - "train_z": 2.53, - "z_all": 2.7, - "med_stake": 77, - "avg_entry": 0.55, - "train_n": 55, - "fwd_win": 45.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.321, - "fwd_n": 2076 + "train_z": 1.83, + "z_all": 2.03, + "med_stake": 165, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 78, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 }, { "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", @@ -1119,6 +1161,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07, "fwd_n": 46 }, + { + "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", + "name": "0x60a92c86", + "train_win": 77.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.098, + "train_z": 2.02, + "z_all": 2.0, + "med_stake": 5714, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 122, + "fwd_win": 70.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023, + "fwd_n": 68 + }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1167,7 +1223,7 @@ "train_win": 69.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.088, "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 2.05, + "z_all": 2.07, "med_stake": 56, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 319, @@ -1203,15 +1259,29 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.057, "fwd_n": 72 }, + { + "wallet": "0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122", + "name": "0x011f2d37", + "train_win": 80.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.064, + "train_z": 2.94, + "z_all": 6.96, + "med_stake": 3561, + "avg_entry": 0.75, + "train_n": 266, + "fwd_win": 59.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.076, + "fwd_n": 105 + }, { "wallet": "0x809205fb1c91f746b9703ca412c4fdd0435db8a2", "name": "0x809205fb", - "train_win": 76.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.045, - "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.94, + "train_win": 76.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.05, + "train_z": 1.96, + "z_all": 2.95, "med_stake": 98, - "avg_entry": 0.72, + "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 264, "fwd_win": 77.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082, @@ -1248,13 +1318,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", "name": "0x0d42cc5f", - "train_win": 68.0, + "train_win": 68.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.025, - "train_z": 2.33, + "train_z": 2.34, "z_all": 6.69, - "med_stake": 448, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 378, + "med_stake": 447, + "avg_entry": 0.64, + "train_n": 380, "fwd_win": 71.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, "fwd_n": 71 diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 58986563..1cc74c70 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 40.68 + "floor": 41.15 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -26,19 +26,19 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 328.13 + "floor": 328.34 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", - "floor": 226.17 + "floor": 225.74 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "AIcAIc", "class": "volume", - "floor": 332.88 + "floor": 338.88 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index d66bc7ce..3be8427a 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

68 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-17 20:13

+

70 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-18 10:36

-
Validated wallets
68
+
Validated wallets
70
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.2
-
Value / longshot
48
+
Median OOS z
3.1
+
Value / longshot
51
Favorite-rider
10
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.