From 0bb319232149acceb819064b0a53b8c7d77aa750 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 12:45:29 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] docs: document Copy P&L finding (position win% != copyability) README/FINDINGS/live/README updated for today's discovery: the sharps win% is a position snapshot that over-counts scalpers; copy_pnl (flat-$50 replay, authoritative clob resolution) is the real copyability signal. Most "sharps" lose copied; only Kruto2027 + fortuneking are copy-positive (now the tracked pair). Refreshed stale counts (50 -> ~31 after the 30d-active filter) and noted position-level conviction. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 --- FINDINGS.md | 30 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- README.md | 19 +++++++++++++------ live/README.md | 9 +++++++-- 3 files changed, 48 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/FINDINGS.md b/FINDINGS.md index 2d2767f7..14c8ea27 100644 --- a/FINDINGS.md +++ b/FINDINGS.md @@ -184,8 +184,8 @@ time on winning conviction bets** — this is a copyability heuristic, NOT proof inside information (a short lead can be a genuine insider or just someone good at fast-resolving markets; we can't tell, and for copy purposes it doesn't matter). Of the 218, the gate drops the **"last-minute" wallets** (median lead <24h — you -can't get the trade in before resolution), leaving **50 validated copyable sharps** -(`watch_sharps.json`) with multi-day leads. The standout `0x60ec1744…` held 80% +can't get the trade in before resolution), then a 30-day-active filter, leaving +**~31 validated copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`) with multi-day leads. The standout `0x60ec1744…` held 80% win over **1,017 forward conviction bets**; even the suspiciously-perfect `0x72e1…` (99/100% win) enters ~7 days early — a real forecaster, clearly not last-minute. These 50 are surfaced live on jaxperro.com/trading. @@ -196,6 +196,32 @@ That funnel produces a copyable, forward-validated set — the strongest evidenc this project that followable skill exists.* +## Copy P&L: position win% ≠ copyability (the scalper trap, 2026-06-23) + +The biggest caveat on the whole sharps table: **a high conviction win% does not mean +you can profit copying the wallet.** The win%/record are computed from `curPrice ≥ 0.5` +on resolved positions — a *position snapshot*. For a high-frequency scalper that +massively over-counts: he buys ~$0.50, sells seconds later for ~+$1, and the snapshot +records a "win" even though he never held to resolution. `ArbTraderRookie` shows +**~100% conviction win (398-2)** yet a flat-$50 copy of his conviction bets, held to +**authoritative clob resolution (winner by token_id)**, nets **−$790 (held 0-19)** — +two independent replays agree (live portfolio −$687 ≈ standalone clob −$790). + +So `validate_timing.display_stats` now also computes **`copy_pnl`** — what a flat-$50 +copier actually realizes since June 1: replay their conviction entries, mirror their +exits, settle held bets at clob resolution. This is surfaced as the **Copy P&L** +column on the dashboard (default sort). The verdict it delivers: **most "sharps" lose +when copied.** Of the ~31, only a handful are copy-positive — `Kruto2027 +$1,184` and +`fortuneking +$430` (true hold-to-resolution betters); names that looked great on win% +(`iohihoo` 88.7% → **−$749**, `ArbTrader` 99.5% → **−$790**) are scalpers that bleed. +The live tracker now follows **fortuneking + Kruto2027** — the two copy-positive +wallets — at $50/trade. + +*Lesson: judge a copy target by Copy P&L (a trade-replay with real resolution), never +by position win%. Conviction must be measured at the position level (a wallet's total +stake in a market), not per individual buy — a scalper splits one position across many +small buys, so a per-trade threshold copies far more (and worse) bets than intended.* + ## Repo layout - `insider.py` — the detector: z-score/p-value, timing/freshness/sizing signals, diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 5399372b..d8c8a019 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -197,12 +197,19 @@ which win 70–80% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.4–0.6) markets — trained pre-June and validated June: **62/83 stayed profitable forward (p≈0)**. A lead-time gate (`validate_timing.py`) then drops wallets whose wins come too close to resolution to mirror — "last-minute" entries (median lead <24h), which -may be genuine insiders or just fast-market specialists — leaving **50 validated -copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`), surfaced live on -[jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading). One held **80% win over -1,017 forward bets**. This is the strongest evidence in the project that -*followable* skill exists — though execution lag/fees and ongoing forward -validation still gate turning it into real money. +may be genuine insiders or just fast-market specialists — plus anyone inactive >30d, +leaving **~31 validated copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`), surfaced live on +[jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading). + +**The catch — position win% ≠ copyability.** A high conviction win% (a position +snapshot) doesn't mean you profit copying the wallet: a scalper buys ~$0.50 and sells +for ~+$1, which the snapshot scores as a "win" though he never held to resolution. So +the feed also precomputes **Copy P&L** — the authoritative flat-$50 copy result +(replay entries, mirror exits, settle held bets at clob resolution). It's the real +signal: `ArbTraderRookie` shows ~100% win but **−$790** to copy; of the ~31, only a +few are copy-positive (`Kruto2027 +$1,184`, `fortuneking +$430` — true holders). The +live tracker follows those two. Execution lag/fees and ongoing forward validation +still gate turning it into real money. --- diff --git a/live/README.md b/live/README.md index 5a0114a8..a6ce8fac 100644 --- a/live/README.md +++ b/live/README.md @@ -88,8 +88,13 @@ wallet's scale (a whale's $200 bet isn't conviction; a minnow's is). winning conviction bets separates copyable sharps (multi-day lead) from "last-minute" wallets (median lead <24h) we can't mirror in time — could be genuine insiders or just fast-resolving-market specialists, can't tell which. - → **50 validated copyable sharps** in `watch_sharps.json` (shown live on - jaxperro.com/trading). + Also drops wallets inactive >30d. → **~31 validated copyable sharps** in + `watch_sharps.json` (shown live on jaxperro.com/trading). It additionally + precomputes every stat the dashboard renders — incl. **`copy_pnl`**, the + authoritative flat-$50 copy P&L (replay entries, mirror exits, settle held bets + at clob resolution by token_id). **Copy P&L is the real copyability signal** — + position win% over-counts scalpers (see FINDINGS "the scalper trap"); the table + defaults to sorting by it. Identifiers for a follow-worthy wallet: on its **≥$200 bets** — win ≥65%, avg entry 0.35–0.70 (edge, not favorites), +copy-ROI, FDR-significant, **median lead