diff --git a/research/settle_discount.py b/research/settle_discount.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..442cde18
--- /dev/null
+++ b/research/settle_discount.py
@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""T7 EXPLORATORY (2026-07-23) — settlement-discount harvesting ("the last
+3 cents"): outcome-known markets keep printing below $1 until formal
+resolution, and redemption is fee-free. Two reads, both chain-true:
+
+1. THE NICHE'S INCUMBENTS: wallets systematically BUYING at >=0.90 —
+   their realized hit, per-share edge, holding time (proxy: token's last
+   tape print = resolution-adjacent), and return on capital.
+2. THE RESIDUAL: per entry-price bucket (90-95/95-97/97-99c), what did
+   buying every such print return after refund/loss risk — the passive
+   version of the trade at our size.
+
+Kill: bucket edge < the copy book's return on the same capital-days, or
+the incumbent census shows <5 wallets soaking all volume (saturated)."""
+import sys
+
+sys.path.insert(0, "/Users/jaxmakielski/polymarket-smart-money/research")
+import tape                                    # noqa: E402
+
+BUCKETS = [(0.90, 0.95, "90-95c"), (0.95, 0.97, "95-97c"),
+           (0.97, 0.995, "97-99c")]
+
+
+def main():
+    db = tape.connect()
+    tape.build_resolved(db)
+    # every high-price BUY-side print on a tape-resolved token, joined to
+    # payout + the token's terminal print time (holding proxy)
+    rows = db.execute("""
+      SELECT t.wallet, t.price::DOUBLE, t.size::DOUBLE, t.ts, tk.payout::DOUBLE, tk.last_ts,
+             t.asset
+      FROM trades t JOIN res_tok tk ON t.asset = tk.asset
+      WHERE t.side = 'BUY' AND t.price >= 0.90 AND t.price < 0.995
+        AND t.ts < tk.last_ts""").fetchall()
+    print(f"high-price buy prints on resolved tokens: {len(rows):,}")
+    # SCORER-LAW bias bound: high-price buys on tokens NOT tape-resolved
+    # (pending/vetoed) are excluded — round 3 says upsets linger there, so
+    # bucket loss-rates are LOWER BOUNDS. Size the exclusion:
+    excl_vol, excl_n = db.execute("""
+      SELECT coalesce(sum(t.price::DOUBLE * t.size::DOUBLE),0), count(*)
+      FROM trades t LEFT JOIN res_tok tk ON t.asset = tk.asset
+      WHERE t.side='BUY' AND t.price >= 0.90 AND t.price < 0.995
+        AND tk.asset IS NULL""").fetchone()
+    incl_vol = sum(r[1] * r[2] for r in rows)
+    print(f"excluded (unresolved-on-tape) volume: ${excl_vol:,.0f} "
+          f"({excl_n:,} prints) vs included ${incl_vol:,.0f} — loss rates "
+          f"below are LOWER BOUNDS (round-3 direction)")
+    # 2. residual per bucket
+    for lo, hi, tag in BUCKETS:
+        rs = [r for r in rows if lo <= r[1] < hi]
+        if not rs:
+            continue
+        n = len(rs)
+        usd = sum(r[1] * r[2] for r in rs)
+        pnl = sum((r[4] - r[1]) * r[2] for r in rs)
+        losses = sum(1 for r in rs if r[4] == 0.0)
+        hold_h = sum((r[5] - r[3]) for r in rs) / n / 3600
+        ret = pnl / usd if usd else 0
+        ann = ret / max(hold_h / 8760, 1e-9)
+        print(f"  {tag}: {n:,} prints · ${usd:,.0f} vol · ret {ret*100:+.2f}%"
+              f" · loss-rate {losses/n:.3%} · avg hold {hold_h:.1f}h · "
+              f"annualized {ann*100:+,.0f}%")
+    # 1. incumbent census (>=0.95 specialists)
+    agg = {}
+    for w, p, z, ts, pay, lts, a in rows:
+        if p < 0.95:
+            continue
+        d = agg.setdefault(w, [0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0])
+        d[0] += 1
+        d[1] += p * z
+        d[2] += (pay - p) * z
+        d[3] += (lts - ts) * p * z          # capital-seconds
+    inc = [(v[1], w, v) for w, v in agg.items()
+           if v[0] >= 20 and v[1] >= 500]      # rank census by VOLUME
+    inc.sort(reverse=True)
+    print(f"\nincumbents (>=20 buys @>=0.95, >=$500 vol): {len(inc)}")
+    tot_vol = sum(v[1] for _, _, v in inc)
+    print(f"their combined volume: ${tot_vol:,.0f} · "
+          f"top5 share {sum(v[1] for _,_,v in inc[:5])/max(tot_vol,1):.0%}")
+    for _, w, (n, usd, pnl, capsec) in inc[:8]:
+        hold_h = (capsec / usd) / 3600 if usd else 0
+        print(f"  {w[:14]} n={n:<5} vol ${usd:>10,.0f} · ret "
+              f"{pnl/usd*100:+.2f}% · avg hold {hold_h:.1f}h")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()