paper-run realism: taker fees, resolved-only scoring, bounded collect, local runner

- copybot: model Polymarket taker fees (V2, since 2026-03-30: shares*rate*p*(1-p),
  sports 0.03) on every paper/live fill; track fees_paid in state + feed; settle
  P&L nets the entry fee. publish_feed now commits state + fills ledger with the
  feed (autostash rebase) so the local poller is the sole state writer.
- validate_timing: copy_pnl/held_pnl are fee-aware -> sharp selection now requires
  clearing real copy costs; conv stats + lead profile use resolved bets only.
- conviction_scan/skill: exclude res_t>now rows (early-sold positions in
  unresolved markets scored at curPrice - a mark, not an outcome; was ~5% of the
  June test window at a 72% pseudo-win rate).
- portfolio: skip unresolved rows (stake used to vanish from equity); missed bets
  of kind=open no longer KeyError - mark-to-market hypothetical P&L.
- collect: cap stale refreshes at STALE_CAP=2500/run (bulk-aged pool turned the
  daily refresh into a ~40h pull holding the DuckDB lock).
- Actions cron disabled: GitHub ran */5 every ~1.5-2.5h and the 10-min stale
  window skipped the rest -> 1 of ~104 qualifying buys copied. launchd --poll 60
  is now the runner; workflow stays as manual backstop.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

.github/workflows/copybot.yml

@@ -10,9 +10,16 @@ name: copybot-paper
 # not Actions.)
 
 on:
-  schedule:
-    - cron: "*/5 * * * *"      # GitHub may delay/skip under load; fine for ≥3h leads
-  workflow_dispatch: {}         # lets you run it manually from the Actions tab
+  # cron DISABLED 2026-07-01: GitHub throttled "*/5" to one run every ~1.5-2.5h in
+  # practice, and copybot skips any trade older than RECENT_TRADE_WINDOW_S (10 min)
+  # — measured result: 1 of ~104 qualifying conviction buys copied June 25-Jul 1.
+  # The launchd poller (com.jaxperro.copybot.plist, --poll 60) is now the sole
+  # runner; it commits state + feed + fills itself. Keep this workflow for manual
+  # runs only — re-enabling the cron alongside the local poller would fork the
+  # book's state.
+  # schedule:
+  #   - cron: "*/5 * * * *"
+  workflow_dispatch: {}         # manual backstop from the Actions tab
 
 permissions:
   contents: write               # GITHUB_TOKEN pushes the feed + state
@@ -44,6 +51,7 @@ jobs:
           git config user.name  "copybot[bot]"
           git config user.email "copybot@users.noreply.github.com"
           git add -f live/copybot_live.json copybot_state.json
+          git add -f copybot_fills.jsonl 2>/dev/null || true   # per-fill lag/slippage ledger
           if git diff --cached --quiet; then
             echo "no change this run"
             exit 0