diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 36d28064..05c6768a 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -2930,3 +2930,6 @@
 {"ts": 1785416158.8, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785416159.5, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.044, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785416160.2, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.2, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785416500.6, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.89, "shares_held": 0.8746, "cost_held": 0.61, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785416501.5, "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.043, "shares_held": 263.35, "cost_held": 123.77, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785416502.3, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.2, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
index ec807f90..9c1d0565 100644
--- a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
@@ -42,3 +42,5 @@
 {"ts": 1783730663, "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "token": "45067024850792209345478857935402657293140220516974974516913686785034525226149", "cond": "0x1a56a14c04e06ec08935c53cd4386ab2a2b617fd70518957183e3c9a28054dbc", "title": "SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 4.5", "outcome": "Over", "price": 0.588, "stake": 98.4, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 67.73, "settled": 1783742174, "name": "0x41558102", "exit_price": 1.0}
 {"ts": 1783762772, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "2744571775903589106980317653847400232271579861889013320024551414528092561305", "cond": "0x32c45da56bf405f951f62fbf1c6d84d16e18a258870438aabb26ed314210d16d", "title": "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "GamerLegion", "price": 0.4198, "stake": 97.58, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 6.0, "settled": 1783763084, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.4604}
 {"ts": 1783767107, "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "token": "94086717682175488292372912031763512631835050964973472839161913179834160769254", "cond": "0x14272984bc3c6a49e9c6141e93b2b6534573765ec89c438986f26151ccfa3d3c", "title": "Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-07-11?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.5987, "stake": 97.7, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "won", "pnl": 64.31, "settled": 1783780828, "name": "0x41558102", "exit_checked": true}
+{"ts": 1783768873, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "24685222266639618881275458182682767134900023023526773367466764924178936188460", "cond": "0xa54a1b59dfc7dbd086084ec8482284753f018c7d47a85fd3fbcc181fc994fa37", "title": "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Team Falcons", "price": 0.65, "stake": 98.1, "reason": "price moved 0.60\u21920.65", "status": "sold", "pnl": 5.54, "settled": 1783769298, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.6998}
+{"ts": 1783769106, "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", "token": "21317240954584519381735360743926588514834913277324009690727150242237748830303", "cond": "0x10e4d9186c618f9bdc362e941c37785ae28764932548b7502c54d226908d0961", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET", "outcome": "Down", "price": 0, "stake": 99.69, "reason": "price 0.000 outside [0.01,0.99]", "status": "lost", "pnl": -101.19, "settled": 1783769486, "name": "0xd96750bf", "exit_checked": true}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index 289ff0ed..9095d950 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -1111,3 +1111,5 @@
 {"ts": 1785415454.4, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "75116284778549418411112199161282050803484626191074595822945197476234252570532", "cond": "0x32a2eac2e77e705613c6f5a917e34c3f85186ddd676d4d455400c9e6aead6b2f", "usd": 1.92, "price": 0.063, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will \"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and ", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785415571.1, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "13388595125574691833144243840473829759157749848506045646745311015534690743621", "cond": "0xe299795d6454fc63c76d4e790f10f6fce6408abd7eab1bdbf5602f112e0b55d0", "usd": 400.0, "price": 0.579999999739, "reason": "$400 < conviction floor $471", "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785415578.2, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "13388595125574691833144243840473829759157749848506045646745311015534690743621", "cond": "0xe299795d6454fc63c76d4e790f10f6fce6408abd7eab1bdbf5602f112e0b55d0", "usd": 380.26, "price": 0.58, "reason": "$380 < conviction floor $471", "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785416614.0, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "75116284778549418411112199161282050803484626191074595822945197476234252570532", "cond": "0x32a2eac2e77e705613c6f5a917e34c3f85186ddd676d4d455400c9e6aead6b2f", "usd": 3.15, "price": 0.063, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will \"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and ", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785416689.8, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "75116284778549418411112199161282050803484626191074595822945197476234252570532", "cond": "0x32a2eac2e77e705613c6f5a917e34c3f85186ddd676d4d455400c9e6aead6b2f", "usd": 4.41, "price": 0.063, "reason": "$4 < conviction floor $227", "title": "Will \"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and ", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index faac2e83..c6dc36f4 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,10 +1,6 @@
 {
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@@ -5000,7 +4996,11 @@
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@@ -7786,7 +7786,9 @@
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@@ -20355,41 +20357,9 @@
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-  "feed_sig": "d5ede860798fe7cac9bdb24b834dfb01",
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+  "feed_sig": "1bc7dc642fa038b7bd59bde0d9ec9616",
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-      "title": "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner",
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-      "cond": "0x10e4d9186c618f9bdc362e941c37785ae28764932548b7502c54d226908d0961",
-      "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET",
-      "outcome": "Down",
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-      "reason": "price 0.000 outside [0.01,0.99]",
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@@ -23547,6 +23517,35 @@
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null,
       "name": "gkmgkldfmg"
+    },
+    {
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+      "cond": "0xe8da89e5a6daede04f1fc3ce3f3957370b50552e176dc27c2a37c4d60bf76134",
+      "title": "Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
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+      "reason": "thin book ($6 within 5c < $50)",
+      "status": "open",
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "0xbadaf319"
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+      "cond": "0x00cb87d62e4a2668754fc58ed8f1462393c516794b2eca2d7991d3d0a043ab0e",
+      "title": "Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch",
+      "outcome": "No",
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+      "reason": "maker bid unfilled (114s)",
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@@ -23678,7 +23677,7 @@
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@@ -23687,7 +23686,7 @@
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@@ -23695,7 +23694,7 @@
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@@ -23703,11 +23702,11 @@
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@@ -23725,54 +23724,9 @@
   "paper_maker": [],
   "maker_stats": {
     "fills": 104,
-    "misses": 42
+    "misses": 43
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-      "cost_held": 123.77,
-      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
-      "outcome": "No",
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-      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
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-      "mode": "paper"
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-      "cost_held": 0.61,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
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-      "mode": "paper"
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     {
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@@ -26727,6 +26681,51 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785416500.6,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.89,
+      "shares_held": 0.8746,
+      "cost_held": 0.61,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785416501.5,
+      "token": "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.043,
+      "shares_held": 263.35,
+      "cost_held": 123.77,
+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+      "mode": "paper"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785416502.3,
+      "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.2,
+      "shares_held": 168.23,
+      "cost_held": 68.97,
+      "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "paper"
     }
   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 75aa7441..17894b10 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -2162,6 +2162,36 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785416755,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "67068564392815062965239534587125906161223843442987784298273297839583708579362",
+   "cond": "0x00cb87d62e4a2668754fc58ed8f1462393c516794b2eca2d7991d3d0a043ab0e",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.52,
+   "stake": 10.02,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (114s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785416641,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "97404502201244152966308197548411815397482847053527035814522627546697214883681",
+   "cond": "0xe8da89e5a6daede04f1fc3ce3f3957370b50552e176dc27c2a37c4d60bf76134",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.34,
+   "stake": 55.01,
+   "reason": "thin book ($6 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785415197,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -3079,42 +3109,9 @@
    "settled": 1784974284,
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_price": 0.9072
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784957802,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "84136887953338024754895453606615907387507802935603233306412924655539834091881",
-   "cond": "0xb9ba5a1aab7799113572597370d54d3493e7e51448a9f90942e690f36f8c3587",
-   "title": "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32\u00b0C on July 25?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.74,
-   "stake": 38.75,
-   "reason": "thin book ($22 within 5c < $50)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 8.42,
-   "settled": 1784958469,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_price": 0.9091
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784856070,
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "token": "52998619540131236497547594447014700470168657421344143046644809127712598896777",
-   "cond": "0x13ae062bd68a15fcbaae29b584fd8030a546b4fb9b2211055a7124f17c2b3ef2",
-   "title": "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24?",
-   "outcome": "Down",
-   "price": 0.63,
-   "stake": 62.21,
-   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (124s)",
-   "status": "sold",
-   "pnl": 13.58,
-   "settled": 1784934648,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_checked": true,
-   "exit_price": 0.7796
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 111477.33,
+ "missed_pnl": 111572.98,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1785416175,
   "side": "SELL",
@@ -3130,7 +3127,7 @@
    "wins": 25,
    "open_cost": 899.29,
    "open_n": 17,
-   "miss_n": 102,
+   "miss_n": 104,
    "miss_pnl": 112286.73,
    "last_ts": 1785408348
   },
@@ -3225,5 +3222,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785416182
+ "updated": 1785416762
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index 82b78603..abc99635 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785416182,
+ "updated": 1785416762,
  "wallet_pnl": {
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    "realized": 484.28,
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
    "wins": 25,
    "open_cost": 899.29,
    "open_n": 17,
-   "miss_n": 102,
+   "miss_n": 104,
    "miss_pnl": 112286.73,
    "last_ts": 1785408348
   },
@@ -6093,6 +6093,36 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785416755,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "67068564392815062965239534587125906161223843442987784298273297839583708579362",
+   "cond": "0x00cb87d62e4a2668754fc58ed8f1462393c516794b2eca2d7991d3d0a043ab0e",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.52,
+   "stake": 10.02,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (114s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": 1785416641,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "97404502201244152966308197548411815397482847053527035814522627546697214883681",
+   "cond": "0xe8da89e5a6daede04f1fc3ce3f3957370b50552e176dc27c2a37c4d60bf76134",
+   "title": "Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "price": 0.34,
+   "stake": 55.01,
+   "reason": "thin book ($6 within 5c < $50)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785415197,
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",