jaxperro
7e9ccdf5c8
Once working equity exceeds stake_cap/pct ($6,250 at 4%), surplus cash sweeps to state["reserve"]/portfolio reserve - banked, never bet, immune to drawdown - keeping stakes at the $250 level where marketable fills sit inside typical book depth. Feed/summary gain reserve; realized = cash+exposure+reserve-bank. June backfill: equity $15,684 (+1468%), $9,185 banked, next stake pinned $250. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Archive — strategies that didn't work
These tools were built and tested during the research in
../FINDINGS.md. They all proved to be dead ends (the market
is efficient / the metric was biased), so they're archived here for reference
rather than deleted. Each one works as written — it's the strategy that
didn't clear. They import smart_money/copytrade from the repo root, so to
run one you'd adjust the import path.
| File | What it did | Why it's here |
|---|---|---|
copytrade.py |
Paper/live copy-trade engine — mirror a watchlist's entries/exits, % -of-bankroll sizing, price guard, per-position cap, Discord alerts. | Copying entries is −EV; followed wallets win ~50%. Backtested −48%. |
backtest.py |
Replay a watchlist over a window, mark outcomes from resolution. | The tool that proved copy-trading loses. |
edge_research.py |
Scan ~2000 wallets for reliable weekly consistency (% green weeks, profit factor, Sharpe). | "Consistent" wallets were mostly young accounts (survivorship); no durable edge. |
lookback.py |
Deep-dive a wallet list over a long window, split into halves for out-of-sample reads. | Showed the "best" wallets had <90 days of history. |
table_77.py |
Aggregate a wallet set to CSV (ROI, total staked, consistency). | Supported the above; ROI inversely related to size. |
lp_screener.py |
Rank reward-eligible markets by risk-adjusted LP yield. | The high APRs were illusory — see lp_paper. |
lp_paper.py |
Paper liquidity-provision loop: simulate quoting, track net = rewards − adverse selection. | Polymarket refunds unearned reward pool; thin-book "jackpots" don't pay. |
xarb.py |
Cross-venue scanner: match the same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi, flag price gaps. | Venues priced efficiently (~1¢); both legs cost >$1 after fees. |
The keeper that came out of all this lives at the repo root: insider.py.