jaxperro
7536379023
xarb.py pulls Polymarket (Gamma) + Kalshi (elections API, ~65k markets), matches the same contract (token overlap + same resolution month + exact numeric match on thresholds/scores/dates), and computes both arb directions with Kalshi's 0.07*P*(1-P) taker fee. Verified verdict: no retail cross-venue arb. On liquid, identical, cleanly- matched contracts the venues agree to ~1c and locking both sides costs >$1 after fees (worked example: Brazil-Morocco BTTS, PM 0.46/0.47 vs Kalshi 0.47/0.48 -> every direction negative). The big apparent edges are false matches, illiquid wide-spread markets, or stale snapshot timing. README now records the full project conclusion: six systematic public-data edges tested, all efficient/illusory. Durable edge needs speed/infra, private information, or liquidity provision -- not a turnkey public-data scanner. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
21 lines
350 B
Plaintext
21 lines
350 B
Plaintext
__pycache__/
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*.pyc
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.DS_Store
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# never commit live credentials or runtime state
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config.json
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copytrade_state.json
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*.log
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*.tmp
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# generated research data (regenerable via edge_research.py / table_77.py)
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edge_metrics.jsonl
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edge_profitable.json
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copyable_77.csv
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lp_markets.csv
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follow_10.json
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lp_paper_state.json
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# cross-venue scanner output
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xarb_hits.csv
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