jaxperro
2f4f2ccbbe
research/ is a hard silo (README rules): read-only tape, no bot imports, own launchd (com.jaxperro.research-nightly 09:15, after daily ingest). - tape.py: proxy-resolution (the 742/742-validated method), niche + crypto strike/expiry/sprint parsers, tick loaders - sim.py: FAK execution replayer; hold_s=3 fitted on 29 real labeled live attempts (79% fill/miss classification), price noise 2-4c, measured OPTIMISM BIAS -2c/fill carried into every verdict threshold - requote.py: crater refill timing per niche (crypto 94% <4s, esports 83% <10s, sports needs ~25s, geo/politics minutes) -> params/requote_timing.json - study_flow.py + robustness: in-play surge momentum. Identity NULL result: 10 pooled controls +23.85/fill == informed +23.68 -> hypothesis revised at freeze, surge-EV primary, identity secondary (#16) - study_oracle.py: oracle digital fair value. 86% craters, winner's-curse inversion at big edges, nothing frozen (no cell at 30 fills) (#17) - forward.py + nightly.sh: re-scores frozen studies on last 3 tape days, appends forward_ledger.jsonl; verdicts ONLY from post-freeze rows Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
25 lines
843 B
Bash
Executable File
25 lines
843 B
Bash
Executable File
#!/bin/bash
|
|
# research nightly — scores the frozen studies on fresh tape and versions
|
|
# the forward ledger. SILO: touches only research/ (+ the append-only
|
|
# resolutions cache via payouts.py). Runs at 09:15 local via
|
|
# com.jaxperro.research-nightly (after the 08:00 daily pipeline's ingest);
|
|
# safe to run by hand any time: python3 research/forward.py
|
|
set -e
|
|
cd "$(dirname "$0")"
|
|
|
|
if ! mkdir .nightly.lock.d 2>/dev/null; then
|
|
echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running — skip" >> forward.log
|
|
exit 0
|
|
fi
|
|
trap 'rmdir .nightly.lock.d' EXIT
|
|
|
|
echo "== $(date -u +%FT%TZ) nightly ==" >> forward.log
|
|
python3 forward.py >> forward.log 2>&1
|
|
|
|
cd ..
|
|
git add research/forward_ledger.jsonl
|
|
if ! git diff --cached --quiet; then
|
|
git commit -q -m "research: forward ledger $(date -u +%F) [skip ci]"
|
|
git pull --rebase --autostash -q && git push -q
|
|
fi
|