winning-wallet-finder/HANDOFF.md

Session handoff — 2026-07-10 (rev 4: real money one step from live)

Self-contained pickup for a fresh session (human or AI). Read README.md gotchas 1–15, FINDINGS.md (the 2026-07-08 sections at the end), ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md, and LIVE_ROLLOUT.md. The repo is authoritative.

THE CRITICAL PATH — finish live placement (one wrap + one port)

The real-money bot (wwf-copybot-live, armed, $24.73) cannot place yet. Root-cause chain, every link PROVEN 2026-07-09/10:

1. First two qualifying signals CRASHED the bot inside the unguarded live order path (Fly events: exit_code=1 at 21:21:55Z and 21:53:35Z, seconds after each signal); boot baseline then marked the fresh trades seen. ALL FIXED: executor never raises, per-wallet poll guard, baseline exempts trades younger than the stale window.
2. py-clob-client is ARCHIVED (May 2026) — the CLOB rejects its orders ('invalid order version') globally. Reads/auth still work; placement is dead for everyone on it. No newer PyPI release exists.
3. Successor: Polymarket/py-sdk (pip install --pre polymarket-client, SecureClient). Proven working for us tonight: auth ✓, the signer's Deposit Wallet deployed: 0x455e252e45Ee46d6C4cc1c8fAdD3899d68f245a1 ✓, gasless relayer transactions execute ✓ (real txs: 0x935be727…, 0x1044d3c7…), setup_trading_approvals() ✓ (max-uint on all spenders), order FORMAT accepted by the exchange ✓.
4. Sole remaining gap: the wrap. The user's $24.73 sits SAFE as native USDC at the deposit wallet (his key controls it). The 2026 exchange trades a wrapped-collateral token (0xC011a7…; wraps native USDC; UI flows wrap on deposit — our raw transfer bypassed it), and the CLOB's balance view counts ONLY that token → orders reject with 'balance: 0'. Attempted: periphery 0x93070a….wrap(asset,to,amount) via gasless batch → 'batch would revert' (likely caller-gated). Neg-risk adapter ruled out.

Next session, in order (do NOT guess with live funds):

1. Read Polymarket/ts-sdk (same unified family) for the deposit-wallet wrap/deposit implementation — it contains the exact supported call. Also check docs.polymarket.com's new wallet/collateral pages.
2. Replicate that one call via client.execute_transaction (the gasless path is proven). Success = get_balance_allowance shows ~$24.73.
3. Port LedgerLiveExecutor to the new SDK: SecureClient.create( private_key=…) (wallet auto-resolves; NO api_key needed at runtime once approvals exist), BUY = place_market_order(token_id, side="BUY", amount=<USD>, order_type="FAK"), SELL = shares=<n>; parse the result for filled shares/price; keep py-clob-client temporarily for reads. Repoint the 1.4 cash anchor at the deposit wallet's collateral view — the live bot currently alarms CASH≠CHAIN +24.73 because the anchor still reads the emptied legacy proxy (expected, harmless).
4. pip add polymarket-client (--pre) to fly.Dockerfile, deploy, re-run host/order_probe_v2.py (contains the ENTIRE working onboarding sequence) until a $5 round trip fills, then run LIVE_ROLLOUT Phase 4 on the first organic fill.
5. Cleanup: probe runs minted several Builder API keys — fetch_builder_api_keys / revoke extras.

Meanwhile the armed live bot is harmless-by-construction: every attempt returns ok:False and records an honest missed row.

System state (all healthy, 2026-07-10 00:47Z)

• Paper bot (wwf-copybot, push mode): Set E, fresh $1,000 book reset 2026-07-08 20:45Z. Day 1½: realized +$1,107.57, 36 copies, 6 open, drift CLEAN (the −11.32 forensics closed at 0.00 — see below). Biggest single win: mirrored Kruto's 3¢→48¢ Hive scalp for +$722.
• Live bot (wwf-copybot-live, poll 60s): armed via LIVE_CONFIRM, $24.73 book, 0 trades (see critical path), Discord pings wired (DISCORD_WEBHOOK secret), auto_redeem off. Disarm: flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM or flyctl apps stop.
• Set E (both books + backtest): LSB1, imwalkinghere, Kruto2027, 0xbadaf319, gkmgkldfmg, AIcAIc, 1kto1m — pinned floors, identical rules (min_price 0.01 everywhere since 2026-07-09 18:05Z, user-approved).
• Dashboards: jaxperro.com/trading (paper+backtest+sharps), jaxperro.com/live (real money). Shared renderer jaxperro/trading/copybot-section.js; ?botFeed=/?rmFeed= overrides.
• Watchdog: Fly /health check (paper app) + GH Actions watchdog.yml → Discord. NOTE: the live app has NO watchdog (poll mode, no HTTP) — liveness = flyctl logs + feed freshness; wire one before raising caps.
• Daily pipeline: Mac launchd 08:00 + pmset RTC wake 07:58 + caffeinate; appends live-vs-model calibration.csv row daily.

Completed 2026-07-09 (the honesty & detection sprint)

• Fill-split merging: same-token BUY clips ≤120s apart merge into the bet the sharp actually made before the floor gate (gkmg's $612 MOUZ entry read as 3×$204 sub-floor clips; he sold +60% in 5 min). Both books.
• Missed-ledger truth: missed bets settle at the sharp's EXIT when they sold pre-resolution (Kruto Hive miss = honest +$75 counterfactual on $5); settled won/lost rows get one exit-print re-check (fast-resolve race); every row relabeled with its diagnosed cause; the two silent follow-path exits (no-ask book, order rejection) now record misses.
• Clobber fix + drift forensics CLOSED: re-entry on a settled token archives (token#ts keys) instead of overwriting; three vanished records reconstructed from fills-ledger/state-history; paper drift 0.00.
• Order-book snapshots (book field) logged per copy → empirical fill model later. payouts.resolution_time(cond) wired (Etherscan V2, exact on-chain res_t; metadata was 29h wrong on the test market).
• min_price parity 0.05→0.01 on the live book (user-approved; the band — not detection — blocked the 16x Hive copy).

Queued work (after the critical path)

1. ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md phases 0→5 (chain-sweep res_t backfill → shadow audit → consumer flips → trust.py simplification LAST).
2. Empirical fill model from the accumulating book snapshots; depth gate before real-money sizing.
3. Funding-cluster tracer port to Etherscan logs (Alchemy free tier caps getLogs at 10 blocks).
4. Live-app watchdog (no /health in poll mode).
5. Decide the leftover $32 on polymarket.us (user's first deposit, wrong venue — withdraw or abandon).

Watch list (does Set E hold up?)

• 0xbadaf319 — two-sided arb/merge clips, not directional conviction; TOP demotion candidate; judge on forward copies.
• AIcAIc — 42% held-win; sell-timing edge (lag-fragile). Second.
• 1kto1m (z=2.4), gkmgkldfmg (z=2.05) — near the gate floor.
• Rejected-with-evidence (don't re-add): oliman2 (true lifetime ~$19k, not PM's $112k), leegunner (negative to copy), 0xb0E43B/ArbTraderRookie (refund harvesters), lma0o0o0o (negative in shared book), Winnertraders (6.6-day locks).

User to-dos (security)

• Revoke the polymarket.us API key f03d9eb5… (secret appeared in a chat screenshot) — if not already done.
• Rotate the Discord webhook that was committed to this repo's history pre-2026-07-09 (spam-risk only).

Operational quick-reference

• Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json → ./live/deploy_bot.sh; keep backtest.json mirrored.
• State surgery: flyctl machine stop FIRST → edit → push → flyctl apps restart → VERIFY the first heartbeat (gotcha 15; bot memory wins conflicts; boot clones can read a stale GitHub replica briefly).
• Never 2 Fly machines per app (flyctl scale count 1).
• Cache single-writer; three cursors per wallet (gotcha 12).
• Bot commits its own state/feed — git pull --rebase --autostash first.
• Image changes (fly.Dockerfile, host/) → flyctl deploy --remote-only; code/config → push + restart. Live app config = fly.live.toml.