jaxperro
8c07343735
* per-trade Discord pings removed everywhere: copybot placement/settle/startup
alerts silenced (engine.webhook forced off), webhook_receiver.py archived,
Procfile removed. The ONLY Discord output is now live/discord_daily.py at the
end of the daily pipeline: one embed listing every watch_sharps wallet with a
Polymarket profile link + 30D conviction win% / record / P&L.
* trust.py fixes found on the first scheduled run (sharp list collapsed 25->7):
- Polymarket rewrites endDate after resolution, so freshly re-pulled wallets'
corrected res_t stopped matching the stale cross-wallet consensus
(374/454 of iohihoo's rows wrongly distrusted). v2 rows with resolved=TRUE
are now self-certifying (resolved=TRUE implies endDate-based res_t observed
post-end) — consensus only gates legacy rows.
- daily.sh invalidates watchlist wallets by DELETING their pulled row; a
transiently failed re-pull then dropped the wallet's entire history from
the trusted set (the 0x73afc816 whale vanished). Legacy rows of wallets
missing from pulled now fall back to trusting markets resolved >=14d ago.
Re-run: 85 conviction wallets, 34 copy-positive sharps — whale/iohihoo/
Stavenson/LSB1/Kruto all recovered.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Archive — strategies that didn't work
These tools were built and tested during the research in
../FINDINGS.md. They all proved to be dead ends (the market
is efficient / the metric was biased), so they're archived here for reference
rather than deleted. Each one works as written — it's the strategy that
didn't clear. They import smart_money/copytrade from the repo root, so to
run one you'd adjust the import path.
| File | What it did | Why it's here |
|---|---|---|
copytrade.py |
Paper/live copy-trade engine — mirror a watchlist's entries/exits, % -of-bankroll sizing, price guard, per-position cap, Discord alerts. | Copying entries is −EV; followed wallets win ~50%. Backtested −48%. |
backtest.py |
Replay a watchlist over a window, mark outcomes from resolution. | The tool that proved copy-trading loses. |
edge_research.py |
Scan ~2000 wallets for reliable weekly consistency (% green weeks, profit factor, Sharpe). | "Consistent" wallets were mostly young accounts (survivorship); no durable edge. |
lookback.py |
Deep-dive a wallet list over a long window, split into halves for out-of-sample reads. | Showed the "best" wallets had <90 days of history. |
table_77.py |
Aggregate a wallet set to CSV (ROI, total staked, consistency). | Supported the above; ROI inversely related to size. |
lp_screener.py |
Rank reward-eligible markets by risk-adjusted LP yield. | The high APRs were illusory — see lp_paper. |
lp_paper.py |
Paper liquidity-provision loop: simulate quoting, track net = rewards − adverse selection. | Polymarket refunds unearned reward pool; thin-book "jackpots" don't pay. |
xarb.py |
Cross-venue scanner: match the same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi, flag price gaps. | Venues priced efficiently (~1¢); both legs cost >$1 after fees. |
The keeper that came out of all this lives at the repo root: insider.py.