jaxperro
2f4f2ccbbe
research/ is a hard silo (README rules): read-only tape, no bot imports, own launchd (com.jaxperro.research-nightly 09:15, after daily ingest). - tape.py: proxy-resolution (the 742/742-validated method), niche + crypto strike/expiry/sprint parsers, tick loaders - sim.py: FAK execution replayer; hold_s=3 fitted on 29 real labeled live attempts (79% fill/miss classification), price noise 2-4c, measured OPTIMISM BIAS -2c/fill carried into every verdict threshold - requote.py: crater refill timing per niche (crypto 94% <4s, esports 83% <10s, sports needs ~25s, geo/politics minutes) -> params/requote_timing.json - study_flow.py + robustness: in-play surge momentum. Identity NULL result: 10 pooled controls +23.85/fill == informed +23.68 -> hypothesis revised at freeze, surge-EV primary, identity secondary (#16) - study_oracle.py: oracle digital fair value. 86% craters, winner's-curse inversion at big edges, nothing frozen (no cell at 30 fills) (#17) - forward.py + nightly.sh: re-scores frozen studies on last 3 tape days, appends forward_ledger.jsonl; verdicts ONLY from post-freeze rows Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
60 lines
922 B
JSON
60 lines
922 B
JSON
{
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"crypto": {
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"n": 625819,
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"p50": 0.0,
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"p75": 0.0,
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"p90": 2.0,
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"within_4s": 0.941,
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"within_10s": 0.966,
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"within_25s": 0.983
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},
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"other": {
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"n": 69962,
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"p50": 1.0,
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"p75": 102.0,
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"p90": 1085.0,
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"within_4s": 0.565,
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"within_10s": 0.607,
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"within_25s": 0.659
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},
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"sports": {
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"n": 52515,
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"p50": 1.0,
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"p75": 21.0,
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"p90": 225.0,
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"within_4s": 0.639,
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"within_10s": 0.697,
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"within_25s": 0.763
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},
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"esports": {
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"n": 24370,
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"p50": 0.0,
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"p75": 3.0,
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"p90": 32.0,
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"within_4s": 0.772,
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"within_10s": 0.829,
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"within_25s": 0.887
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},
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"geo": {
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"n": 2129,
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"p50": 0.0,
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"p75": 98.0,
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"p90": 2110.0,
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"within_4s": 0.643,
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"within_10s": 0.669,
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"within_25s": 0.7
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},
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"politics": {
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"n": 571,
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"p50": 1.0,
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"p75": 879.0,
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"p90": 13761.0,
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"within_4s": 0.562,
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"within_10s": 0.578,
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"within_25s": 0.606
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},
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"_meta": {
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"jump": 0.03,
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"generated": "2026-07-20 17:11"
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}
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} |