research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)
research/ is a hard silo (README rules): read-only tape, no bot imports,
own launchd (com.jaxperro.research-nightly 09:15, after daily ingest).
- tape.py: proxy-resolution (the 742/742-validated method), niche + crypto
strike/expiry/sprint parsers, tick loaders
- sim.py: FAK execution replayer; hold_s=3 fitted on 29 real labeled live
attempts (79% fill/miss classification), price noise 2-4c, measured
OPTIMISM BIAS -2c/fill carried into every verdict threshold
- requote.py: crater refill timing per niche (crypto 94% <4s, esports 83%
<10s, sports needs ~25s, geo/politics minutes) -> params/requote_timing.json
- study_flow.py + robustness: in-play surge momentum. Identity NULL result:
10 pooled controls +23.85/fill == informed +23.68 -> hypothesis revised at
freeze, surge-EV primary, identity secondary (#16)
- study_oracle.py: oracle digital fair value. 86% craters, winner's-curse
inversion at big edges, nothing frozen (no cell at 30 fills) (#17)
- forward.py + nightly.sh: re-scores frozen studies on last 3 tape days,
appends forward_ledger.jsonl; verdicts ONLY from post-freeze rows
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro
2f4f2ccbbe