jaxperro
3d0bc7f001
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool; cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets, keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard + daily refresh. Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6% in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68% win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert" result on live data. Win rate != edge, again. wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets), but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only. Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored. README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
174 lines
9.7 KiB
Python
174 lines
9.7 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Generate a self-contained dashboard.html from watch_skilled.json.
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Embeds the skilled-wallet snapshot (z, out-of-sample z, record, archetype, …)
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into a sortable/filterable dark dashboard with Polymarket profile links and
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on-demand live recent-trade lookup (data-api, client-side). Re-runnable — wire
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into daily.sh so the dashboard refreshes with the watchlist.
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python3 dashboard.py # -> dashboard.html
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"""
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import json
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import os
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import time
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HERE = os.path.dirname(__file__)
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def archetype(r):
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if r["avg_entry"] < 0.5:
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return "value" # longshot / underdog value — the true alpha zone
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if r["avg_entry"] >= 0.85:
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return "favorite" # rides near-certain favorites (thin, less copyable)
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return "balanced"
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def main():
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w = json.load(open(os.path.join(HERE, "watch_skilled.json")))
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for i, r in enumerate(w, 1):
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r["rank"] = i
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r["arch"] = archetype(r)
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r["wins"] = int(round(r["win_rate"] * r["n"] / 100))
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gen = time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M")
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med_z = sorted(x["z"] for x in w)[len(w) // 2]
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med_oos = sorted(x["z_oos"] for x in w if x["z_oos"] is not None)[len(w) // 2]
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n_val = sum(1 for x in w if x["arch"] == "value")
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n_fav = sum(1 for x in w if x["arch"] == "favorite")
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data = json.dumps(w)
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html = HTML.replace("/*DATA*/", data).replace("{{GEN}}", gen) \
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.replace("{{COUNT}}", str(len(w))).replace("{{MEDZ}}", f"{med_z:.1f}") \
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.replace("{{MEDOOS}}", f"{med_oos:.1f}").replace("{{NVAL}}", str(n_val)) \
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.replace("{{NFAV}}", str(n_fav))
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out = os.path.join(HERE, "dashboard.html")
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open(out, "w").write(html)
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print(f"wrote {out} ({len(w)} wallets)")
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HTML = r"""<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><meta charset="utf-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1">
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<title>Skilled Wallets — Polymarket</title>
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<style>
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:root{--bg:#0b0e14;--card:#141925;--line:#222b3a;--dim:#8a97ad;--fg:#e8edf5;
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--green:#37d67a;--red:#ff5c6c;--amber:#ffcc55;--blue:#5b9dff;--violet:#b18cff}
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*{box-sizing:border-box}body{margin:0;background:var(--bg);color:var(--fg);
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font:14px/1.5 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,sans-serif}
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.wrap{max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:22px 16px 60px}
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h1{font-size:26px;margin:0 0 2px}.sub{color:var(--dim);margin:0 0 18px}
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.cards{display:flex;gap:12px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:18px}
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.card{background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;
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padding:12px 16px;min-width:120px}.card .k{color:var(--dim);font-size:12px}
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.card .v{font-size:22px;font-weight:700;margin-top:2px}
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.controls{display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:12px;align-items:center}
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input,select{background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--fg);
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border-radius:9px;padding:8px 11px;font-size:14px}
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input{flex:1;min-width:180px}
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.pill{padding:3px 9px;border-radius:999px;font-size:11px;font-weight:600;white-space:nowrap}
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.value{background:rgba(55,214,122,.15);color:var(--green)}
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.favorite{background:rgba(255,204,85,.15);color:var(--amber)}
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.balanced{background:rgba(91,157,255,.15);color:var(--blue)}
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table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;background:var(--card);
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border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden}
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th,td{padding:10px 12px;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);white-space:nowrap}
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th:first-child,td:first-child,th:nth-child(2),td:nth-child(2){text-align:left}
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th{color:var(--dim);font-size:12px;cursor:pointer;user-select:none;position:sticky;top:0;background:var(--card)}
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th:hover{color:var(--fg)}tr.row:hover{background:#1a2030;cursor:pointer}
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td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-decoration:underline}
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.z{font-weight:700}.mono{font-family:ui-monospace,Menlo,monospace;color:var(--dim);font-size:12px}
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.det{background:#10141d;color:var(--dim);font-size:13px}
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.det td{text-align:left;white-space:normal}
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.bar{display:inline-block;height:7px;border-radius:4px;background:var(--violet);vertical-align:middle}
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.note{color:var(--dim);font-size:12px;margin-top:14px;line-height:1.6}
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.trade{display:flex;gap:8px;align-items:center;padding:3px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
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.b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
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</style></head><body><div class="wrap">
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<h1>Skilled Wallets <span style="color:var(--dim);font-weight:400;font-size:18px">· Polymarket</span></h1>
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<p class="sub">{{COUNT}} wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated {{GEN}}</p>
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<div class="cards">
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Validated wallets</div><div class="v">{{COUNT}}</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median z</div><div class="v">{{MEDZ}}</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median OOS z</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">{{MEDOOS}}</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Value / longshot</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">{{NVAL}}</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Favorite-rider</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--amber)">{{NFAV}}</div></div>
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</div>
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<div class="controls">
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<input id="q" placeholder="search name or address…">
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<select id="arch"><option value="">All archetypes</option>
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<option value="value">Value / longshot</option>
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<option value="balanced">Balanced</option>
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<option value="favorite">Favorite-rider</option></select>
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<select id="sort">
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<option value="z">Sort: z (skill)</option>
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<option value="z_oos">Sort: out-of-sample z</option>
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<option value="band_0204">Sort: alpha-zone %</option>
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<option value="n">Sort: # bets</option>
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<option value="win_rate">Sort: win rate</option>
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</select>
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</div>
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<table id="tbl"><thead><tr>
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<th data-k="rank">#</th><th data-k="name">Wallet</th>
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<th data-k="z">z</th><th data-k="z_oos">OOS z</th>
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<th data-k="n">bets</th><th data-k="win_rate">win%</th>
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<th data-k="avg_entry">avg entry</th><th data-k="band_0204">alpha 0.2–0.4</th>
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<th data-k="arch">type</th>
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</tr></thead><tbody id="body"></tbody></table>
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<p class="note"><b>How to read it.</b> <b>z</b> = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). <b>OOS z</b> = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. <b>Alpha 0.2–0.4</b> = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. <span class="value" style="padding:1px 7px">Value</span> wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); <span class="favorite" style="padding:1px 7px">Favorite-rider</span> wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.</p>
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</div>
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<script>
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const DATA=/*DATA*/;
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const fmtW=w=>w.length>14?w.slice(0,6)+'…'+w.slice(-4):w;
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let sortK='z',asc=false,open=null;
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const body=document.getElementById('body');
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function render(){
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const q=document.getElementById('q').value.toLowerCase();
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const af=document.getElementById('arch').value;
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let rows=DATA.filter(r=>(!af||r.arch===af)&&
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(!q||(r.name||'').toLowerCase().includes(q)||r.wallet.toLowerCase().includes(q)));
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rows.sort((a,b)=>{const x=a[sortK],y=b[sortK];return (asc?1:-1)*((x>y)-(x<y));});
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body.innerHTML=rows.map(r=>{
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const zc=r.z>=10?'var(--violet)':r.z>=6?'var(--green)':'var(--fg)';
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const oc=r.z_oos>=5?'var(--green)':r.z_oos>=3?'var(--amber)':'var(--red)';
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const bw=Math.round(r.band_0204*46);
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return `<tr class="row" data-w="${r.wallet}">
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<td>${r.rank}</td>
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<td class="name">${r.name||fmtW(r.wallet)}<div class="mono">${fmtW(r.wallet)}</div></td>
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<td class="z" style="color:${zc}">${r.z.toFixed(1)}</td>
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<td class="z" style="color:${oc}">${r.z_oos==null?'—':r.z_oos.toFixed(1)}</td>
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<td>${r.wins}/${r.n}</td>
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<td>${r.win_rate.toFixed(0)}%</td>
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<td>${r.avg_entry.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td><span class="bar" style="width:${bw}px"></span> ${(r.band_0204*100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
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<td><span class="pill ${r.arch}">${r.arch}</span></td></tr>`;
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}).join('')||'<tr><td colspan="9" style="text-align:center;color:var(--dim);padding:24px">no matches</td></tr>';
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}
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body.addEventListener('click',async e=>{
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const tr=e.target.closest('tr.row'); if(!tr)return;
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const w=tr.dataset.w;
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const nx=tr.nextElementSibling;
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if(nx&&nx.classList.contains('det')){nx.remove();return;}
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document.querySelectorAll('tr.det').forEach(x=>x.remove());
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const d=document.createElement('tr');d.className='det';
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d.innerHTML=`<td colspan="9">loading recent trades… · <a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a></td>`;
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tr.after(d);
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try{
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const r=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user=${w}&type=TRADE&limit=8`);
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const ts=await r.json();
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const rows=(ts||[]).map(t=>`<div class="trade"><span class="${t.side==='BUY'?'b':'s'}">${t.side}</span>
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<span>${(t.outcome||'')} · ${(t.title||'').slice(0,52)}</span>
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<span style="margin-left:auto;color:var(--dim)">${((t.price||0)*100).toFixed(0)}¢</span></div>`).join('');
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d.firstChild.innerHTML=`<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a><div style="margin-top:6px">${rows||'no recent trades'}</div>`;
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}catch(err){d.firstChild.innerHTML=`<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a> · live feed unavailable`;}
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});
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document.querySelectorAll('th').forEach(th=>th.onclick=()=>{
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const k=th.dataset.k; if(k===sortK)asc=!asc;else{sortK=k;asc=(k==='rank'||k==='avg_entry');} render();});
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document.getElementById('q').oninput=render;
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document.getElementById('arch').onchange=render;
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document.getElementById('sort').onchange=e=>{sortK=e.target.value;asc=false;render();};
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render();
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</script></body></html>"""
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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