a164031b79
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-23 02:48:04 +00:00
1e0ec5c22d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-22 02:39:15 +00:00
39be164065
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-21 02:30:52 +00:00
8987bceb42
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-20 13:19:59 -04:00
dfb562645f
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-19 12:54:10 -04:00
0d608103d3
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-18 10:36:27 -04:00
80ebdb6616
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-17 21:39:05 -04:00
adbbb784c3
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-16 15:36:43 -04:00
954a2c8a21
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-15 11:25:19 -04:00
709faa2bca
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-15 00:59:11 -04:00
7334de070f
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-13 10:59:39 -04:00
3c300f48e2
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-12 10:58:08 -04:00
74508304a6
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-11 14:51:50 -04:00
a813ab7cb8
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-10 11:29:25 -04:00
cece7d7d3c
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-09 12:42:29 -04:00
d02fb05e9d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-08 10:55:02 -04:00
a7b782cda8
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-06 14:50:42 -04:00
306fece6a7
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-05 12:57:42 -04:00
971204d58d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-04 19:29:22 -04:00
0b83a5c81e
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-04 10:47:44 -04:00
6c3c966418
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-03 21:40:57 -04:00
a184dbc1c1
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-02 10:03:33 -04:00
0f6d308eec
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-07-02 07:03:53 -06:00
f021016092
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-30 11:57:44 -06:00
41282f2629
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-29 11:38:12 -06:00
ead741584a
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-28 11:46:13 -06:00
c119ed8668
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-27 11:15:38 -06:00
ecd629fd5a
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-26 11:21:47 -06:00
9afa759c2d
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-25 10:12:26 -06:00
7f70cbee06
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-24 10:30:39 -06:00
902fcc525a
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-23 10:33:29 -06:00
3fe29a63aa
live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
2026-06-22 21:56:32 -06:00
3d0bc7f001
Add live/ skilled-wallet scanner + cache; document clean OOS finding
...
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live
data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool;
cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets,
keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate
skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard +
daily refresh.
Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6%
in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68%
win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert"
result on live data. Win rate != edge, again.
wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets),
but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only.
Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored.
README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-18 11:16:20 -06:00
root