cleanup + calibration tracker
- Railway project magnificent-kindness DELETED (soft-delete, purges 2026-07-10) — retired-infra fully gone; requirements.txt loses its Railway-detection rationale (stdlib core, optional extras noted). - tests/test_check_book.py: the Option A orphan-fix regression harness moves into the repo (was session-local); 6 cases, no network/config. - daily.sh: calibration step — one row/day of live-book vs backtest equity to live/history/calibration.csv, the series that sizes real money (day-zero row seeded: live $1,000 vs model $22,027). - config.json.bak (untracked, stale copy of the leaked Alchemy key) deleted locally. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ The repo is authoritative; project memory has deeper history.
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`jaxperro/trading/copybot-section.js`. `?botFeed=`/`?rmFeed=` query params
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override feeds for local testing.
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- **Daily pipeline** (Mac launchd 08:00, fires on wake — typically ~10:00)
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appends one live-vs-model row/day to `live/history/calibration.csv` and
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re-derives everything under the new rules: entries cursors now invalidate
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daily, `_open_split` folds by the `redeemable` flag, `rtally` splits SOLD.
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- **Backtest**: `portfolio.py` takes `--bank` (backtest.json `"bank"`).
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@@ -54,6 +54,38 @@ echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') 5/7 floors: pin copy-bot p80 conviction floors ->
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python3 sync_floors.py || echo "[daily] floor sync skipped"
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echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') portfolio: cache-based \$1k book -> portfolio.json"
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python3 portfolio.py || echo "[daily] portfolio skipped"
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echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') calibration: live-book vs model, one row/day"
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# The number that sizes real money (FINDINGS "The calibration experiment"):
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# the measured ratio between the live paper book and the backtest of the SAME
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# set. Live side from the bot-committed feed on GitHub (freshest truth; the
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# local checkout can lag), model side from the portfolio.json just written.
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python3 - <<'CALIB' || echo "[daily] calibration row skipped"
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import csv, json, os, ssl, time, urllib.request
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ctx = ssl._create_unverified_context()
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live = json.load(urllib.request.urlopen(
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"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder/main/live/copybot_live.json",
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timeout=30, context=ctx))
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model = json.load(open("portfolio.json"))
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row = {
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"date": time.strftime("%F"),
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"live_equity": round((live.get("cash") or 0) + (live.get("deployed") or 0)
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+ (live.get("reserve") or 0), 2),
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"live_realized": live.get("realized"), "live_open": live.get("open_count"),
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"live_drift": live.get("ledger_drift"),
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"model_equity": model.get("equity"), "model_realized": model.get("realized"),
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"model_bank": model.get("bank"), "wallets": ",".join(live.get("wallets") or []),
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}
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os.makedirs("history", exist_ok=True)
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path = "history/calibration.csv"
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new = not os.path.exists(path)
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with open(path, "a", newline="") as fh:
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w = csv.DictWriter(fh, fieldnames=list(row))
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if new:
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w.writeheader()
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w.writerow(row)
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print(f"[daily] calibration: live ${row['live_equity']:,} vs model "
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f"${row['model_equity']:,} -> {path}")
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CALIB
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echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') 6/7 dashboard"
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python3 dashboard.py
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mkdir -p history && cp watch_skilled.json "history/watch_$(date '+%Y%m%d').json" 2>/dev/null
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+5
-2
@@ -1,2 +1,5 @@
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# Winning Wallet Finder — no third-party deps, Python 3 stdlib only.
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# This file exists so Railway/Nixpacks detects a Python app.
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# Core system: Python 3 stdlib only — nothing to install for the finder,
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# the daily pipeline, or the PAPER copy bot.
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# Optional extras, installed only where used:
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# py-clob-client==0.34.6, web3==7.16.0 -> live trading (fly.Dockerfile has them)
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# duckdb -> live/ cache + wide/ scanner
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@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
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"""Regression tests for the Option A orphan fix (HANDOFF 2026-07-08):
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_record_untracked_buy, _synth_bet, check_book (record/conds self-correct +
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guarded boot cash heal). Run: python3 tests/test_check_book.py — needs no
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network, no cache, no config; stubs the engine.
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"""
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import json
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import os
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import sys
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import tempfile
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sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), ".."))
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import copybot # noqa: E402
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_TMP = tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="copybot_test_")
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FILL_LOG = os.path.join(_TMP, "fills_test.jsonl")
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FEED = os.path.join(_TMP, "feed_test.json")
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class StubEx:
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live = False
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def __init__(self):
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self.fills = []
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class StubEngine:
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def __init__(self, state):
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self.state = state
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self.ex = StubEx()
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self.persisted = 0
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def persist(self):
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self.persisted += 1
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def open_exposure(self):
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return sum(p["cost"] for p in self.state["my_pos"].values())
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def mkbot(state):
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cfg = {"watch": [{"wallet": "0xabc", "name": "TestSharp"}],
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"bankroll_usd": 1000.0,
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"feed_path": FEED, "fill_log": FILL_LOG}
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eng = StubEngine(state)
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bot = copybot.Copybot(cfg, eng, filt=None)
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bot.here = "" # fill_log paths are absolute already
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return bot, eng
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def base_state():
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return {"my_pos": {}, "their_pos": {}, "bets": {}, "conds": {},
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"adjustments": [], "missed": [], "lag_recent": []}
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def approx(a, b, tol=0.02):
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assert abs(a - b) <= tol, f"{a} !~ {b}"
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fails = []
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def case(name):
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def deco(fn):
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try:
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if os.path.exists(FILL_LOG):
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os.remove(FILL_LOG)
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fn()
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print(f"PASS {name}")
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except AssertionError as e:
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print(f"FAIL {name}: {e}")
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fails.append(name)
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return deco
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@case("drain debits cash; untracked buy gets record+conds+ledger line")
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def t1():
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st = base_state()
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bot, eng = mkbot(st)
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# position exists (engine added it), fill drained under ANOTHER trade's loop
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st["my_pos"]["T2"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Orphan Mkt",
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"outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond2"}
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eng.ex.fills.append({"side": "BUY", "token": "T2", "shares": 80.0, "price": 0.5})
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cash0 = st["cash"]
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buys = bot._drain_fills()
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assert len(buys) == 1
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fee = buys[0]["fee"]
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approx(st["cash"], cash0 - 40.0 - fee)
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bot._record_untracked_buy(buys[0])
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b = st["bets"]["T2"]
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assert b["status"] == "open" and b["their_price"] is None
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assert b["name"] == "TestSharp" and b["wallet"] == "0xabc"
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assert st["conds"]["T2"] == "0xcond2"
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lines = [json.loads(l) for l in open(FILL_LOG)]
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assert any(l.get("token") == "T2" and l.get("side") == "BUY" for l in lines)
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approx(bot.ledger_drift(), 0.0)
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@case("check_book synthesizes record + backfills conds, drift stays 0")
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def t2():
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st = base_state()
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bot, eng = mkbot(st)
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st["my_pos"]["T3"] = {"shares": 100.0, "cost": 45.0, "title": "Synth Mkt",
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"outcome": "No", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond3"}
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# cash WAS debited (cost + the same estimated fee) — drained-but-not-recorded
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fee_est = copybot.taker_fee(100.0, 0.45, bot.fee_rate)
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st["cash"] -= 45.0 + fee_est
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drift = bot.check_book()
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b = st["bets"]["T3"]
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assert b["status"] == "open" and b["their_price"] is None
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approx(b["fee"], fee_est)
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assert st["conds"]["T3"] == "0xcond3"
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approx(drift, 0.0)
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assert eng.persisted > 0
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@case("boot heal: never-debited orphan matched by drift -> cash debited, drift 0")
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def t3():
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st = base_state()
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bot, eng = mkbot(st)
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st["my_pos"]["T4"] = {"shares": 72.0, "cost": 36.35, "title": "Hanyi Liu Redux",
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"outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond4"}
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cash0 = st["cash"] # cash NEVER debited — the crash orphan
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drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
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fee_est = st["bets"]["T4"]["fee"]
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approx(st["cash"], cash0 - 36.35 - fee_est)
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approx(drift, 0.0)
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lines = [json.loads(l) for l in open(FILL_LOG)]
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assert any(l.get("healed") for l in lines)
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@case("boot heal REFUSES a drift that matches nothing")
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def t4():
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st = base_state()
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bot, eng = mkbot(st)
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st["my_pos"]["T5"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Innocent Mkt",
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"outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond5"}
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fee_est = copybot.taker_fee(80.0, 0.5, bot.fee_rate)
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st["cash"] -= 40.0 + fee_est # this position's cash is fine
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st["cash"] += 10.0 # unrelated $10 drift from somewhere else
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cash0 = st["cash"]
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drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
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assert st["cash"] == cash0, "healed cash it should not have touched"
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approx(drift, 10.0)
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@case("real _record_lag record (their_price set) is never a heal candidate")
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def t5():
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st = base_state()
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bot, eng = mkbot(st)
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st["my_pos"]["T6"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Lagged Mkt",
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"outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond6"}
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st["bets"]["T6"] = {"token": "T6", "wallet": "0xabc", "name": "TestSharp",
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"outcome": "Yes", "title": "Lagged Mkt",
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"their_price": 0.48, "my_price": 0.5, "slippage_pct": 0.04,
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"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "fee": 0.6,
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"opened": 1, "status": "open",
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"exit_price": None, "pnl": None, "settled": None}
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st["cash"] -= 40.6 # this position's cash was properly drained
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# fabricate an UNRELATED drift that HAPPENS to equal this bet's cost+fee
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st["cash"] += 40.6
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cash0 = st["cash"]
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drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
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assert st["cash"] == cash0, "debited a vouched position"
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approx(drift, 40.6)
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@case("two orphans: both healed iteratively? no — only exact-match heals")
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def t6():
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st = base_state()
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bot, eng = mkbot(st)
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# two never-debited orphans of different sizes: drift = sum, matches
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# NEITHER individually -> heal must refuse both (visible drift > 0)
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st["my_pos"]["T7"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Orphan A",
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"outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "c7"}
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st["my_pos"]["T8"] = {"shares": 50.0, "cost": 30.0, "title": "Orphan B",
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"outcome": "No", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "c8"}
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cash0 = st["cash"]
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drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
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assert st["cash"] == cash0, "healed on a non-matching drift"
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assert drift > 70, f"drift should stay visible, got {drift}"
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for f in (FILL_LOG, FEED):
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if os.path.exists(f):
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os.remove(f)
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print()
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print("FAILURES:", fails or "none")
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sys.exit(1 if fails else 0)
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