cleanup + calibration tracker

- Railway project magnificent-kindness DELETED (soft-delete, purges
  2026-07-10) — retired-infra fully gone; requirements.txt loses its
  Railway-detection rationale (stdlib core, optional extras noted).
- tests/test_check_book.py: the Option A orphan-fix regression harness
  moves into the repo (was session-local); 6 cases, no network/config.
- daily.sh: calibration step — one row/day of live-book vs backtest
  equity to live/history/calibration.csv, the series that sizes real
  money (day-zero row seeded: live $1,000 vs model $22,027).
- config.json.bak (untracked, stale copy of the leaked Alchemy key)
  deleted locally.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

HANDOFF.md

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ The repo is authoritative; project memory has deeper history.
   `jaxperro/trading/copybot-section.js`. `?botFeed=`/`?rmFeed=` query params
   override feeds for local testing.
 - **Daily pipeline** (Mac launchd 08:00, fires on wake — typically ~10:00)
+  appends one live-vs-model row/day to `live/history/calibration.csv` and
   re-derives everything under the new rules: entries cursors now invalidate
   daily, `_open_split` folds by the `redeemable` flag, `rtally` splits SOLD.
 - **Backtest**: `portfolio.py` takes `--bank` (backtest.json `"bank"`).

live/daily.sh

@@ -54,6 +54,38 @@ echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') 5/7 floors: pin copy-bot p80 conviction floors ->
 python3 sync_floors.py || echo "[daily] floor sync skipped"
 echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') portfolio: cache-based \$1k book -> portfolio.json"
 python3 portfolio.py || echo "[daily] portfolio skipped"
+echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') calibration: live-book vs model, one row/day"
+# The number that sizes real money (FINDINGS "The calibration experiment"):
+# the measured ratio between the live paper book and the backtest of the SAME
+# set. Live side from the bot-committed feed on GitHub (freshest truth; the
+# local checkout can lag), model side from the portfolio.json just written.
+python3 - <<'CALIB' || echo "[daily] calibration row skipped"
+import csv, json, os, ssl, time, urllib.request
+ctx = ssl._create_unverified_context()
+live = json.load(urllib.request.urlopen(
+    "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder/main/live/copybot_live.json",
+    timeout=30, context=ctx))
+model = json.load(open("portfolio.json"))
+row = {
+    "date": time.strftime("%F"),
+    "live_equity": round((live.get("cash") or 0) + (live.get("deployed") or 0)
+                         + (live.get("reserve") or 0), 2),
+    "live_realized": live.get("realized"), "live_open": live.get("open_count"),
+    "live_drift": live.get("ledger_drift"),
+    "model_equity": model.get("equity"), "model_realized": model.get("realized"),
+    "model_bank": model.get("bank"), "wallets": ",".join(live.get("wallets") or []),
+}
+os.makedirs("history", exist_ok=True)
+path = "history/calibration.csv"
+new = not os.path.exists(path)
+with open(path, "a", newline="") as fh:
+    w = csv.DictWriter(fh, fieldnames=list(row))
+    if new:
+        w.writeheader()
+    w.writerow(row)
+print(f"[daily] calibration: live ${row['live_equity']:,} vs model "
+      f"${row['model_equity']:,} -> {path}")
+CALIB
 echo "[daily] $(date '+%F %T') 6/7 dashboard"
 python3 dashboard.py
 mkdir -p history && cp watch_skilled.json "history/watch_$(date '+%Y%m%d').json" 2>/dev/null

requirements.txt

@@ -1,2 +1,5 @@
-# Winning Wallet Finder — no third-party deps, Python 3 stdlib only.
+# Core system: Python 3 stdlib only — nothing to install for the finder,
-# This file exists so Railway/Nixpacks detects a Python app.
+# the daily pipeline, or the PAPER copy bot.
+# Optional extras, installed only where used:
+#   py-clob-client==0.34.6, web3==7.16.0  -> live trading (fly.Dockerfile has them)
+#   duckdb                                 -> live/ cache + wide/ scanner

tests/test_check_book.py

@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
+"""Regression tests for the Option A orphan fix (HANDOFF 2026-07-08):
+_record_untracked_buy, _synth_bet, check_book (record/conds self-correct +
+guarded boot cash heal). Run: python3 tests/test_check_book.py — needs no
+network, no cache, no config; stubs the engine.
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import tempfile
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), ".."))
+import copybot  # noqa: E402
+
+_TMP = tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="copybot_test_")
+FILL_LOG = os.path.join(_TMP, "fills_test.jsonl")
+FEED = os.path.join(_TMP, "feed_test.json")
+
+
+class StubEx:
+    live = False
+
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.fills = []
+
+
+class StubEngine:
+    def __init__(self, state):
+        self.state = state
+        self.ex = StubEx()
+        self.persisted = 0
+
+    def persist(self):
+        self.persisted += 1
+
+    def open_exposure(self):
+        return sum(p["cost"] for p in self.state["my_pos"].values())
+
+
+def mkbot(state):
+    cfg = {"watch": [{"wallet": "0xabc", "name": "TestSharp"}],
+           "bankroll_usd": 1000.0,
+           "feed_path": FEED, "fill_log": FILL_LOG}
+    eng = StubEngine(state)
+    bot = copybot.Copybot(cfg, eng, filt=None)
+    bot.here = ""  # fill_log paths are absolute already
+    return bot, eng
+
+
+def base_state():
+    return {"my_pos": {}, "their_pos": {}, "bets": {}, "conds": {},
+            "adjustments": [], "missed": [], "lag_recent": []}
+
+
+def approx(a, b, tol=0.02):
+    assert abs(a - b) <= tol, f"{a} !~ {b}"
+
+
+fails = []
+
+
+def case(name):
+    def deco(fn):
+        try:
+            if os.path.exists(FILL_LOG):
+                os.remove(FILL_LOG)
+            fn()
+            print(f"PASS  {name}")
+        except AssertionError as e:
+            print(f"FAIL  {name}: {e}")
+            fails.append(name)
+    return deco
+
+
+@case("drain debits cash; untracked buy gets record+conds+ledger line")
+def t1():
+    st = base_state()
+    bot, eng = mkbot(st)
+    # position exists (engine added it), fill drained under ANOTHER trade's loop
+    st["my_pos"]["T2"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Orphan Mkt",
+                          "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond2"}
+    eng.ex.fills.append({"side": "BUY", "token": "T2", "shares": 80.0, "price": 0.5})
+    cash0 = st["cash"]
+    buys = bot._drain_fills()
+    assert len(buys) == 1
+    fee = buys[0]["fee"]
+    approx(st["cash"], cash0 - 40.0 - fee)
+    bot._record_untracked_buy(buys[0])
+    b = st["bets"]["T2"]
+    assert b["status"] == "open" and b["their_price"] is None
+    assert b["name"] == "TestSharp" and b["wallet"] == "0xabc"
+    assert st["conds"]["T2"] == "0xcond2"
+    lines = [json.loads(l) for l in open(FILL_LOG)]
+    assert any(l.get("token") == "T2" and l.get("side") == "BUY" for l in lines)
+    approx(bot.ledger_drift(), 0.0)
+
+
+@case("check_book synthesizes record + backfills conds, drift stays 0")
+def t2():
+    st = base_state()
+    bot, eng = mkbot(st)
+    st["my_pos"]["T3"] = {"shares": 100.0, "cost": 45.0, "title": "Synth Mkt",
+                          "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond3"}
+    # cash WAS debited (cost + the same estimated fee) — drained-but-not-recorded
+    fee_est = copybot.taker_fee(100.0, 0.45, bot.fee_rate)
+    st["cash"] -= 45.0 + fee_est
+    drift = bot.check_book()
+    b = st["bets"]["T3"]
+    assert b["status"] == "open" and b["their_price"] is None
+    approx(b["fee"], fee_est)
+    assert st["conds"]["T3"] == "0xcond3"
+    approx(drift, 0.0)
+    assert eng.persisted > 0
+
+
+@case("boot heal: never-debited orphan matched by drift -> cash debited, drift 0")
+def t3():
+    st = base_state()
+    bot, eng = mkbot(st)
+    st["my_pos"]["T4"] = {"shares": 72.0, "cost": 36.35, "title": "Hanyi Liu Redux",
+                          "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond4"}
+    cash0 = st["cash"]           # cash NEVER debited — the crash orphan
+    drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
+    fee_est = st["bets"]["T4"]["fee"]
+    approx(st["cash"], cash0 - 36.35 - fee_est)
+    approx(drift, 0.0)
+    lines = [json.loads(l) for l in open(FILL_LOG)]
+    assert any(l.get("healed") for l in lines)
+
+
+@case("boot heal REFUSES a drift that matches nothing")
+def t4():
+    st = base_state()
+    bot, eng = mkbot(st)
+    st["my_pos"]["T5"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Innocent Mkt",
+                          "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond5"}
+    fee_est = copybot.taker_fee(80.0, 0.5, bot.fee_rate)
+    st["cash"] -= 40.0 + fee_est     # this position's cash is fine
+    st["cash"] += 10.0               # unrelated $10 drift from somewhere else
+    cash0 = st["cash"]
+    drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
+    assert st["cash"] == cash0, "healed cash it should not have touched"
+    approx(drift, 10.0)
+
+
+@case("real _record_lag record (their_price set) is never a heal candidate")
+def t5():
+    st = base_state()
+    bot, eng = mkbot(st)
+    st["my_pos"]["T6"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Lagged Mkt",
+                          "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "0xcond6"}
+    st["bets"]["T6"] = {"token": "T6", "wallet": "0xabc", "name": "TestSharp",
+                        "outcome": "Yes", "title": "Lagged Mkt",
+                        "their_price": 0.48, "my_price": 0.5, "slippage_pct": 0.04,
+                        "shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "fee": 0.6,
+                        "opened": 1, "status": "open",
+                        "exit_price": None, "pnl": None, "settled": None}
+    st["cash"] -= 40.6   # this position's cash was properly drained
+    # fabricate an UNRELATED drift that HAPPENS to equal this bet's cost+fee
+    st["cash"] += 40.6
+    cash0 = st["cash"]
+    drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
+    assert st["cash"] == cash0, "debited a vouched position"
+    approx(drift, 40.6)
+
+
+@case("two orphans: both healed iteratively? no — only exact-match heals")
+def t6():
+    st = base_state()
+    bot, eng = mkbot(st)
+    # two never-debited orphans of different sizes: drift = sum, matches
+    # NEITHER individually -> heal must refuse both (visible drift > 0)
+    st["my_pos"]["T7"] = {"shares": 80.0, "cost": 40.0, "title": "Orphan A",
+                          "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "c7"}
+    st["my_pos"]["T8"] = {"shares": 50.0, "cost": 30.0, "title": "Orphan B",
+                          "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0xabc", "cond": "c8"}
+    cash0 = st["cash"]
+    drift = bot.check_book(heal_cash=True)
+    assert st["cash"] == cash0, "healed on a non-matching drift"
+    assert drift > 70, f"drift should stay visible, got {drift}"
+
+
+for f in (FILL_LOG, FEED):
+    if os.path.exists(f):
+        os.remove(f)
+
+print()
+print("FAILURES:", fails or "none")
+sys.exit(1 if fails else 0)