cache schema v2: token-keyed upsert archive, provenance, raw prices, honest failures

- bets table gains asset (token id = position identity), src/ts (endpoint
  provenance + close time), resolved (False = early-sold in an unended market;
  won is a curPrice mark). Auto-migrates v1 in place (~8s, 3,697 exact dupes
  merged); legacy rows carry NULLs until their wallet refreshes.
- refresh is now an upsert by token instead of a wallet wipe: rows sliding out
  of the rolling pull window survive, so per-wallet history accumulates into a
  permanent archive. Same-asset rows from both endpoints (partially-closed
  positions) dedupe to the larger-stake row - kills the two-endpoint
  double-count class (~35k suspect pairs found in the audit).
- p stored raw (0 = avgPrice missing), clamped on read by get_bets, so missing
  prices stay distinguishable from real 0.1c longshots; insider CLI + oos clamp
  their own direct use.
- resolved_bets(strict=True): a failed page raises instead of returning a
  silently truncated history; get_bets no longer caches or marks failed pulls
  (pre-v2 an API error cached the wallet as empty-and-fresh for 14 days -
  Kruto2027 was a live victim of this last night).

Verified: migration 18,289,320 -> 18,285,623 rows; forced refreshes of two
sharps show 0 same-asset dups, 0 legacy/new mixing, clamped reads, conviction
stats intact (Kruto conv win 73%).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

live/README.md

@@ -50,14 +50,25 @@ any archetype, any cutoff, the clean OOS test — now runs in **seconds** instea
 of hours of API pulls. `MAX_AGE_DAYS=14`: the broad pool refreshes biweekly; the
 watchlist is force-refreshed daily (`cache.invalidate`) for forward tracking.
 
-**Retention gotcha — the cache is NOT append-only.** Each wallet's refresh does
-`DELETE FROM bets WHERE wallet=?` then re-inserts a fresh pull, and that pull is a
-**rolling 180-day window** (`WINDOW_DAYS`) capped at ~2k bets/endpoint
-(`max_pages`). So wallet *coverage* grows (new wallets are kept), but any single
-wallet's history is a capped, rolling, overwrite-on-refresh snapshot — bets older
-than ~180d are dropped on the next re-pull. For a permanent long-horizon archive,
-use the append-style `../wide/pmkt.duckdb` subgraph dataset instead, or change the
-pull to upsert + drop the cutoff.
+**Schema v2 (2026-07-02) — token-keyed, provenance-tagged, archival.** `bets`
+now carries `asset` (token id — the position identity), `src`/`ts` (endpoint
+provenance + close time), and `resolved` (False = early-sold position in a
+market that hadn't ended at pull time; its `won` is a curPrice *mark*, not an
+outcome — scorers filter these). `p` is stored **raw** (0 = avgPrice missing)
+and clamped to [0.001, 0.999] by `get_bets` on read, so "missing price" stays
+distinguishable from a real 0.1¢ longshot. Refresh is an **upsert by token**
+(plus superseded legacy rows), not a wallet wipe: each pull still covers the
+rolling `WINDOW_DAYS`, but rows that slide out of the window now *survive*, so
+per-wallet history accumulates into a permanent archive. The same-asset row
+from both endpoints (a partially-closed position) is deduped to the larger-
+stake row instead of double-counting. Failed pulls are returned empty but NOT
+cached and NOT marked pulled — they retry on the next call instead of
+masquerading as "no bets" for `MAX_AGE_DAYS` (pre-v2, an API error could cache
+a wallet as empty-and-fresh; that bug bit the watchlist in practice). Legacy v1
+rows keep NULLs in the new columns until their wallet's next refresh. The
+migration runs automatically on first open (v1 → v2, exact-duplicate rows
+merged). Per-endpoint pagination is still capped at ~2k bets (`max_pages`);
+`../wide/pmkt.duckdb` remains the deep-history subgraph dataset.
 
 ## The clean test (why the favorites are a mirage)