ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md: phased plan for true resolution time through the stack

Chain-sweep backfill (784k conds ≈ ~1k calls, not 8 days of per-cond
queries) → shadow audit → consumer flips shallowest-to-deepest →
trust.py simplification last. Ground rules codify the 2026-07-08
alignment-audit discipline: overlay never rewrite, one flip per day,
never coupled with follow-set changes, calibration continuity notes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+# Etherscan migration — true resolution time through the whole stack
+
+**Goal:** every consumer of `res_t` reads the exact on-chain
+`ConditionResolution` timestamp instead of endDate metadata. Measured rot
+that motivates this (2026-07-08): the Jul-7 Brewers market carried
+`end_date_iso` **2026-05-05** and cache res_t **29h before** true resolution
+(04:51 next morning); a Jul-5 tennis match carried res_t **Jul-14** (future);
+an entire class of in-play sells could never pass a timestamp test.
+`payouts.resolution_time(cond)` (wired, verified) is the source; this plan
+is the *consumption* migration. **No code until the plan is agreed.**
+
+## Ground rules (scar tissue from the 2026-07-08 alignment audit)
+
+1. **Overlay, never rewrite.** Chain timestamps live in `resolution_times`
+   (own table). `bets.res_t` is never mutated — provenance stays intact,
+   every flip is a one-line revert per consumer.
+2. **One consumer per phase**, each with a before/after diff reviewed
+   *before* publishing. Never two flips in one day.
+3. **Never couple a flip with a follow-set change** — attribution dies.
+4. **Calibration continuity:** any phase that changes model output adds a
+   note (and a `rules_version` marker) to `live/history/calibration.csv`
+   that day, so the live-vs-model series stays interpretable.
+5. Docs land with the phase, not after: FINDINGS gets the measured deltas,
+   README gotchas get amendments, HANDOFF tracks the phase counter.
+
+## Scale facts (measured 2026-07-08)
+
+- 974,155 distinct conds in the bets cache; **783,911 resolved**;
+  141,396 in exits; 66,095 in `resolutions` (payout cache); 1 in
+  `resolution_times` (the Brewers proof).
+- Per-cond Etherscan queries are a non-starter: 784k ÷ 5 req/s ≈ 43h of
+  calls against a 100k/day cap ≈ **8 days**.
+- **The chain sweep is the enabler:** ONE topic0-only `getLogs` walk over
+  the CTF contract returns every ConditionResolution ever, 1,000 events per
+  call ≈ **~1,000 calls ≈ minutes**, resumable by block cursor. Nightly
+  increment afterward = 1–3 calls in `daily.sh`.
+- `res_t` consumer weight (grep): trust.py 26 · portfolio.py 23 ·
+  cache.py 11 · conviction_scan.py 5 · validate_timing.py 4 · skill.py 4 ·
+  sync_floors.py 1. Flip order below runs shallowest → deepest.
+
+## Phase 0 — full-chain backfill (enabler, no behavior change)
+
+Build `live/resolution_sweep.py`: windowed topic0-only walker over the CTF
+contract (chainid=137), resumable `last_block` cursor, throttled ≤5 req/s,
+writes `(cond, res_ts)` into `resolution_times`. Wire the incremental call
+into `daily.sh` (cache is single-writer — it runs inside the pipeline slot).
+
+Exit criteria / audits before any consumer flips:
+- **Coverage:** ≥99% of *resolved* conds that appear in any scoring path
+  (trusted rows for scanned wallets, exits, portfolio replay) have a chain
+  timestamp; sample the misses by hand.
+- **negRisk verification:** confirm ConditionResolution fires for negRisk
+  conds (oracle = the adapter) on a handful of known negRisk markets.
+- **Uniqueness:** assert one event per cond in the sweep (if re-reports
+  exist, keep the LAST and document).
+- **The rot histogram:** distribution of `res_ts − metadata res_t` across
+  all matched conds → FINDINGS. This quantifies 18 months of silent error
+  and predicts which downstream metrics will move.
+
+## Phase 1 — read-only shadow audit (no behavior change)
+
+Recompute both ways, publish nothing:
+1. **validate_timing shadow:** med_lead_h and the held/timing gates with
+   chain res_ts — does the 35-sharp membership change? Which wallets flip?
+2. **portfolio shadow:** replay with (a) settle/capital-recycle at true
+   res_ts (today's game-day-midnight settles free capital EARLY — expect an
+   equity haircut from honest capital lock), (b) timestamp sold-test
+   primary with the price test retained as fallback. Record equity/record
+   deltas per wallet.
+3. **trust shadow:** agreement rate between consensus res_t and chain
+   res_ts — the empirical case for how much of trust.py survives Phase 5.
+
+Deliverable: one FINDINGS section with the three deltas. Flip order below
+is confirmed or reshuffled *on this data*.
+
+## Phase 2 — flip validate_timing (lowest stakes)
+
+Lead metrics + timing gates read chain res_ts (fallback: old logic where a
+cond has no event, e.g. genuinely unresolved). If sharp-list membership
+changes, that's honest — document the entrants/leavers like a follow-set
+change review. Sharps table republished; dashboards unchanged structurally.
+
+## Phase 3 — flip portfolio.py (moves published numbers)
+
+Settle times, sold-test primary, threshold windows (`res_t < START`) all
+read chain res_ts. Then: full row-audit vs the live bot book (the 7/9-style
+check — agreement must not regress), republish, calibration note (rule 4).
+Expect and pre-announce the equity change; the honest number wins.
+
+## Phase 4 — flip conviction_scan + skill + floors (selection layer)
+
+Train/test splits and conviction windows on chain res_ts. Floors re-pin via
+`sync_floors` and may shift a few % → coordinate a same-day
+`deploy_bot.sh` so bot and backtest keep gating identically (rule 3 still
+holds: no wallet adds/drops that day).
+
+## Phase 5 — simplify trust.py (LAST, biggest payoff)
+
+With chain res_ts + chain payouts covering all scoring conds, the consensus
+res_t machinery, the v2 self-certification split, and the 14-day pulled_at
+fallback reduce to: *"resolved on-chain? what payout? when?"* Keep consensus
+only as a fallback for conds absent from chain (Phase 0 says ~none).
+Regression bar: the sharp list before/after must be identical or every
+difference individually explained. This deletes the most complex code in
+the repo — do it after the chain data has soaked a week+.
+
+## Parallel track (independent, any time)
+
+Port insider.py's funding-cluster tracer from Alchemy `getLogs` (now capped
+at 10 blocks on free tier) to Etherscan V2 logs. No interaction with the
+res_t work.
+
+## Risks
+
+| risk | mitigation |
+|------|------------|
+| Etherscan limits/downtime | cache-forever table; resumable cursor; env `ETHERSCAN_KEY` override; sweep re-runnable idempotently |
+| negRisk event semantics differ | Phase 0 verification gate before any flip |
+| UMA disputes / duplicate events | uniqueness assert in Phase 0; disputes precede first report, immutable after |
+| DuckDB single-writer | sweep runs in the daily pipeline slot only |
+| numbers move and surprise | shadow audit first; pre-announced deltas; rules_version in calibration.csv |
+| Etherscan V2 API drift | pin chainid=137 param form; smoke test in sweep preamble |
+
+## Sequencing
+
+Phase 0+1 fit one session (~2–3h, mostly sweep runtime + audit reads).
+Each flip (2, 3, 4) is its own session with regen + publish + docs.
+Phase 5 waits a week+ of soak. Total: ~4 working sessions spread over
+~2 weeks, zero downtime, every step revertible.

HANDOFF.md

@@ -42,11 +42,12 @@ The repo is authoritative; project memory has deeper history.
 
 ## Queued next-session work (in value order)
 
-1. **Exact-res_t migration**: `payouts.resolution_time(cond)` (Etherscan V2,
+1. **Exact-res_t migration**: plan agreed 2026-07-08 — execute
-   wired+verified 2026-07-08) gives true resolution timestamps; migrate
+   [ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md](ETHERSCAN_MIGRATION.md) phase by phase
-   trust.py / validate_timing / portfolio.py to consume them instead of
+   (0: chain sweep backfill → 1: shadow audit → 2: validate_timing →
-   endDate metadata. Alignment-grade change — same care as the 2026-07-08
+   3: portfolio → 4: selection+floors → 5: trust simplification LAST).
-   audit. Backfill throttled ≤5 req/s (Etherscan free tier).
+   One phase per session, before/after diffs, never coupled with
+   follow-set changes.
 2. **Empirical fill model**: every copy now logs a `book` snapshot (spread +
    5c depth) to the fills ledger; once a few weeks accumulate, fit slippage
    vs stake/depth and replace portfolio.py's flat SLIP haircut; add a depth