diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 2eaab6f9..737635b6 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -38,8 +38,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 105, "fwd_win": 99.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.165, - "fwd_n": 113 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.164, + "fwd_n": 114 }, { "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", @@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ "med_stake": 297, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 239, - "fwd_win": 76.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.839, - "fwd_n": 67 + "fwd_win": 76.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.843, + "fwd_n": 69 }, { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", @@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ "train_n": 76, "fwd_win": 77.7, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.085, - "fwd_n": 273 + "fwd_n": 278 }, { "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", @@ -107,9 +107,9 @@ "med_stake": 2439, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 60.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 247 + "fwd_win": 60.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.125, + "fwd_n": 261 }, { "wallet": "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266", @@ -135,9 +135,9 @@ "med_stake": 212, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 60.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.072, - "fwd_n": 114 + "fwd_win": 59.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.044, + "fwd_n": 123 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", @@ -163,9 +163,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 65.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.302, - "fwd_n": 213 + "fwd_win": 66.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.303, + "fwd_n": 215 }, { "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", @@ -191,9 +191,9 @@ "med_stake": 387, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 242, - "fwd_win": 87.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.131, - "fwd_n": 340 + "fwd_win": 87.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.136, + "fwd_n": 356 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -219,9 +219,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 207, - "fwd_win": 75.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.054, - "fwd_n": 481 + "fwd_win": 74.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.042, + "fwd_n": 498 }, { "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", @@ -233,9 +233,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 71.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.23, - "fwd_n": 244 + "fwd_win": 71.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.223, + "fwd_n": 249 }, { "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", @@ -247,9 +247,9 @@ "med_stake": 1019, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 74.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.041, - "fwd_n": 206 + "fwd_win": 74.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.037, + "fwd_n": 218 }, { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", @@ -261,9 +261,9 @@ "med_stake": 970, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 213, - "fwd_win": 68.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.061, - "fwd_n": 93 + "fwd_win": 69.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.037, + "fwd_n": 96 }, { "wallet": "0x84571f1bf97a5c710cbe51daff2dd4556cc887fd", diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 779234df..b569c454 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,25 +14,25 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 34.54 + "floor": 32.18 }, { "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 316.98 + "floor": 316.61 }, { "wallet": "0x2d462b29127b919ae4c085e03be44ae7077e3e2d", "name": "Vahan88", "class": "volume", - "floor": 245.92 + "floor": 244.91 }, { "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "name": "LSB1", "class": "volume", - "floor": 318.75 + "floor": 319.28 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 98abc77c..1ff12bc0 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
62 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-22 02:39
+60 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-23 02:48
How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.